Still a lot left to do

Enscheff said:
Again, unfortunately, you can't seem to grasp the nuance that values like wRC and oWAR are calulated against the context of the entire league, while I am talking about building a team.

So let's do an experiment centered around the stat you quoted, wRC. I picked 2 players with identical wRC values of 101, but they each achieved those values in different ways in 2016. Trumbo had a .316 OBP and a .533 SLG, while Villar had a .369 OBP and a .457 SLG.

According to you, these are identical players offensively. Afterall, they have identical wRC and very close wOBA values.

So I plugged 9 Villars into the lineup optimizer and got 5.715 runs per game. All optimized lineups were obviously the same.

Then I replaced a Villar with a Trumbo. The optimizer predictably stuck him in the #4 spot. The result: 5.741 runs per game, or 4 more runs per season.

I then continued to replace Villar's with Trumbo's, and guess what the optimal balance was? OK I'll tell you, 4 Trumbo's and 5 Villar's produced 5.771 runs per game, or 9 more runs per season than 9 Villar's.

That equates to 1-2 more wins simply from lineup balance.

So please tell me with your impressive grasp of data analysis, how replacing 4 batters with 4 other batters of exactly equal "value" managed to score a team 9 more runs per season in this simulation?
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That's a great way to look at it. It shows some value to mixing in power with OBP. And I suspect the marginal gain from the first Trumbo is higher than the marginal gain from the 4th Trumbo.

And it quantifies the benefit. 1-2 wins. I believe every win matters. But I think it also supports the point that a Prado is preferable to a Kemp no matter where you are in terms of the power-OBP mix. No?
 
You originally said adding 1 power guy would be a huge improvement. Where is the huge improvement? Having a balanced lineup only adds 7 runs. Not even 1 win.

Also, as we have mentioned before. OPS isn't near as accurate as wOBA. But continue to act like it does.
 
thewupk said:
You originally said adding 1 power guy would be a huge improvement. Where is the huge improvement? Having a balanced lineup only adds 7 runs. Not even 1 win.

Also, as we have mentioned before. OPS isn't near as accurate as wOBA. But continue to act like it does.
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Haha you are bound and determined to cling to your notion regardless of anything presented to the contrary. The biggest jump in runs per game came with adding the first power hitter.

Unfortunately all we have is a simulation tool based in OBP and SLG to compare guys with equal wRC values, so if those results coupled with common sense doesn't convince you that a balanced lineup is the best then I suppose nothing will.
 
nsacpi said:
That's a great way to look at it. It shows some value to mixing in power with OBP. And I suspect the marginal gain from the first Trumbo is higher than the marginal gain from the 4th Trumbo.

And it quantifies the benefit. 1-2 wins. I believe every win matters. But I think it also supports the point that a Prado is preferable to a Kemp no matter where you are in terms of the power-OBP mix. No?
Click to expand...

The first Trumbo is indeed a bigger gain than the 4th Trumbo.

And I never said I would prefer a 3 WAR guy to a 2 WAR guy just to get power in the lineup. I was making a point that adding WAR values of individual players is limited when building a team, and that all WAR is not created equal. Further, I think this helps explain why Kemp had a larger effect on the offense than his individual contributions may indicate. My examples showed this to be true to everyone that isn't stubbornly denying it in a desperate effort not to be wrong.

I'm obviously a big stats guy, but in situations like this I try to acknowledge that it breaks down. Another example being saber guys attributing all differences between WAR and actual wins as sequencing luck, as if a team has no control over their sequencing. After all, which team scores more runs, the one who bats Odor in front of Desmond, or the team that bats them in the other order and makes it more likely they will benefit from lucky sequencing?
 
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