Strider: is he Maddux and Smoltz?

chop2chip

chop2chip

Well-known member
Incredible article from ex-Fangraphs writer Travis Sawchick.


https://www.thescore.com/mlb/news/2631293

My favorite part is the quote at the very end.
Strider doesn't even see the need for a third pitch.

"I could throw a curveball with a negative-20(-inch) vertical. I don't know that it would be worth it," Strider said. "It wouldn't induce swings. It wouldn't play off my fastball and slider. It would look terrific on TrackMan, but what would be the point of that?

"You look at deGrom, he has the curveball and changeup, too, but he's throwing both less because the fastball-slider combo is what reduces a hitter's decision confidence the most. That deGrom package with the fastball, a breaking ball doesn't even need to have a depth. It just needs to look like a fastball as long as it can. That's all you really need."
Click to expand...
 
chop2chip said:
Incredible article from ex-Fangraphs writer Travis Sawchick.


https://www.thescore.com/mlb/news/2631293

My favorite part is the quote at the very end.
Click to expand...

What an awesome article Chop. Thanks for sharing that. So often we analyze results without trying to understand the biomechanics and thoughts behind getting to those numbers.

When he throws a rare change, it seems like it's a pretty good pitch and I wondered why he didn't throw it more. Now I know.
 
That article seems to me to be the exact reason why the Braves gave Strider the 6 year deal. When you have someone that has that kind of attention to detail, you want that guy around others in your organization.
 
We’ve seen how mediocre he is at 95 vs 98, and when he loses a few ticks over the years the 3rd pitch will become more important. As long as he understands that when the aging curve reduces his velocity he should hopefully be able to adapt.

For now, being peak Kimbrel for 90+ pitches is certainly amazing.
 
Besides the discussion the third pitch, the articles goes deep into Strider reworking himself after Tommy John at Clemson. Not just the vegan stuff we have seen DOB and Bowman mention a million times, but how he watched YouTube of Walker Buehler and Trevor Bauer and reconstructed his entire delivery because he knew he needed to maximize extension to be successful at 6 ft tall.

One day Strider will lose some velocity and will need to adapt. But it’s encouraging to know he’s already done a complete reinvention once before. If he fails later on, I doubt it will be because he was too stubborn to learn a new pitch.
 
I find that very encouraging. He seems to have a good grasp of the mental aspect. A third pitch can really be as simple as just a learning a new grip. Strider should probably experiment a little and see what works for him. I would love to get him and Johnny Venters in a room together to see if he can teach him that Vulcan changeup.
 
cajunrevenge said:
I find that very encouraging. He seems to have a good grasp of the mental aspect. A third pitch can really be as simple as just a learning a new grip. Strider should probably experiment a little and see what works for him. I would love to get him and Johnny Venters in a room together to see if he can teach him that Vulcan changeup.
Click to expand...

Shouldn't we trade him while we can get a king's ransom. I mean he did see the same bump as Wright did in innings pitched from previous year
 
The one thing that concerns me is that pitchers throwing that hard always break - even the tall ones with big frames (e.g. Verlander, DeGrom). I don't know how physiologically he maintains 7 feet of extension for six or more years at 5'11". That's just an incredible chain of optimized movements. As Enscheff points out, he will lose a few klicks over time, and then he'll have to figure out other ways to get guys out. But 95 isn't exactly Jamie Moyer territory. A good change or splitter, properly tunneled, no doubt makes him effective at 95. He says in the article he could be throwing a curveball with 20" of drop right now, but it wouldn't make him more effective. A change (which he actually throws pretty well 3-5 times per game right now) ought to be child's play for a guy this technically capable and precise.
 
My bad, I dont know why fangraphs didnt show Wrights minor league stats when it showed Striders. There is a 6 year window after TJ when a pitcher is generally healthier and less prone to injury. I am guessing Strider is still within that 6 year window. If the 50 IP increase rule applied to starters coming off TJ surgery it would take 4 years to ramp up to 200 innings a year. When that 6 year window is up I would absolutely consider trading Strider depending on the situation and context. I like Strider but I dont think he will be an elite starter for the next 10 years. If we could get 4 elite years out of him including this year and then trade him for a kings ransom I would be very happy with that.
 
cajunrevenge said:
My bad, I dont know why fangraphs didnt show Wrights minor league stats when it showed Striders. There is a 6 year window after TJ when a pitcher is generally healthier and less prone to injury. I am guessing Strider is still within that 6 year window. If the 50 IP increase rule applied to starters coming off TJ surgery it would take 4 years to ramp up to 200 innings a year. When that 6 year window is up I would absolutely consider trading Strider depending on the situation and context. I like Strider but I dont think he will be an elite starter for the next 10 years. If we could get 4 elite years out of him including this year and then trade him for a kings ransom I would be very happy with that.
Click to expand...

In a perfect world sure.. but how do you dance that dance. You can't trade Strider without having a replacement in hand. Hitting on prospects to replace him is a crap shoot and paying to replace him is uber expensive. I think you just have to hope for the best unless you have younger replacement guys in hand already. Then I would agree, follow the Rays model and dump when there is about 2 years left on that contract. But he could break well before that point unfortunately.
 
Well the first thing is to sign good young players to long term contracts ASAP. Which the Braves have done. Even if some of them underperform the contract the overall savings are worth it. Now lets say Strider is an elite starter this year through 2026. He would have 2 years remaining at 22 million per year with an club option at the same rate for a third year. Thats the point that I would say is ideal to trade him. We would have gotten 5 great years from Strider for under 27 million with 20 million of that being in 2025. The odds are overwhelming that those will be his best years. Then we trade him to one of these sucker teams like the Yankees. Maybe the players we get back wont be as productive as Strider immediately but they will do so very cheaply. Its not just new players production vs Strider its also the 20 million we save in payroll. This would line up with Acuna's last 2 years. We stand a much better chance to keep him beyond this contract if we offered to up the salary on the last 2 years of his deal so as to minimize the gargantuan contract it will take to re-sign him.
 
GovClintonTyree said:
The one thing that concerns me is that pitchers throwing that hard always break - even the tall ones with big frames (e.g. Verlander, DeGrom). I don't know how physiologically he maintains 7 feet of extension for six or more years at 5'11". That's just an incredible chain of optimized movements. As Enscheff points out, he will lose a few klicks over time, and then he'll have to figure out other ways to get guys out. But 95 isn't exactly Jamie Moyer territory. A good change or splitter, properly tunneled, no doubt makes him effective at 95. He says in the article he could be throwing a curveball with 20" of drop right now, but it wouldn't make him more effective. A change (which he actually throws pretty well 3-5 times per game right now) ought to be child's play for a guy this technically capable and precise.
Click to expand...

I understand your point, but Verlander has thrown 3000 innings and has 78 career WAR. He’s still going strong in his 40’s. Meanwhile, we see finesse pitchers break down all the time.

At the end of the day, every single pitcher is on the clock and has a finite number of bullets in the arm. Enjoy them while you can.
 
The biggest thing I took away from the article is how smart Strider is. He knew what kind of pitcher he wanted to be and was able to make the physical changes to his body and style. I'm sure when the day comes that he doesn't have 99 in the tank, he will be able to make the adjustments to maximize his ability.

This was a great extension by AA. Strider is exactly the TOR arm he has been trying to get in FA or via but hasn't been able to.
 
chop2chip said:
I understand your point, but Verlander has thrown 3000 innings and has 78 career WAR. He’s still going strong in his 40’s. Meanwhile, we see finesse pitchers break down all the time.

At the end of the day, every single pitcher is on the clock and has a finite number of bullets in the arm. Enjoy them while you can.
Click to expand...

To your point, Verlander didn’t suffer a significant injury until he was 38.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top