SUNDAY MINORS THREAD 8/20/18: Rangel Shines in Rome

rico43

rico43

<B>Director of Minor League Reports</B>
SUNDAY MINORS RESULTS
All Times Eastern

CLASS AAA

Buffalo 4, Gwinnett 2

Wright 7 IP, 5 H, 2 ER, 2 BB, 6 K
LP: Socolovich (4-4) 1 IP, 3 H, 2 ER, 2 BB, 0 K
Pfiefer 1 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 1 K

Reed 1-4, HR (7th), RBI
Kazmar 2-4, RBI

CLASS AA

Mississippi (58-65) @ Mobile, ppd.

ADVANCED CLASS A

Florida 5, Lakeland 0

WP: Davidson (7-10) 7.1 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 6 K
D.Hernandez 1.2 IP, zeroes

Alexander 3-4, R, BB
Waters 2-4, 2B, R
Contreras 1-5, R, RBI

CLASS A

Rome 3, Delmarva 2

WP: Rangel (5-6) 7 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 7 K
Bacon (Save, 2) 2 IP, 4 H, 2 ER, 0 BB, 1 K

Dean 3-4, 2 R
Ramos 1-4, 2B, RBI
Graffanino 1-4, RBI

SHORT-SEAS0N

Danville 12, Burlington 7

SP: Mejia 1.1 IP, 2 H, 3 ER, 6 BB, 2 K
Welsh 2.2 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 5 K
WP: Stallings (1-0) 2 IP, 4 H, 2 ER, 0 BB, 3 K
Kingham (Save, 1) 3 IP, 4 H, 2 ER, 0 BB, 4 K

Shumpert 4-5, 3 R, 3B, 2 RBI
Mateja 3-4, 3 R, BB, RBI
R.Rodriguez 3-5, R, 2 RBI
Mejia 3-6, 2 RBI

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DSL, GCL idle
 
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How many starts has Ian Anderson been rained out of this year? I can think of 4-5 easily.
 
buck75 said:
I don’t know if he should be the #1 catcher for the Braves but he has improved defensively. If he keeps his hands back while batting, he may surprise a lot of folks.
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Contreras is everything we've wanted in a catcher. Period.I've seen him 4 times this year. Great hands, Canon for an arm, bat has always been decent but it's good now. I mean he's got his brothers demeanor and a little dog in him. He's fun to watch.
 
Davidson's numbers not showing huge improvement, but he looks to be gaining a little more consistency when you'd assume they're having him focus more on the changeup - 2 ER or less in 7 of his last 10 starts (only one of those seven lasting less than 5 IP).

Certainly not something to write home about as much as to keep an eye on - Anderson and Wright were also pretty unimpressive as they were being forced to work on the same things.
 
Super said:
may be a dumb thing to complain about, but i still wish wright's k numbers were better.
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Wright's AAA k/9 is sitting at 8.77 with a BB/9 at 2.81.

His 2.81 AAA ERA is a bit of a mirage due to his minuscule .175 BABIP against.

In 130 IP at the AA/AAA levels Wright has pretty consistently had a K/9 just under 9, and a BB/9 right around 3. At this pointy it's probably fair to remove him from TOR consideration, but he could still post K and BB rates slightly better than MLB average for SP.

SPs who live in that 8+ K/9 and ~3 BB/9 range over 150+ IP are usually #3/#4 SPs who post 2-3 fWAR.

Here is a list of those guys from 2017: https://www.fangraphs.com/leaderssp...oPt=true&players=&pg=0&pageItems=30&sort=22,1

Lower the BB range from 2.8-3.2 (Grade 50 control) down to 2.3-2.7 (Grade 60 control), and you can bump that up to a solid #3 that gets argued about being a #2 from fans of his team.
 
Enscheff said:
Wright's AAA k/9 is sitting at 8.77 with a BB/9 at 2.81.

His 2.81 AAA ERA is a bit of a mirage due to his minuscule .175 BABIP against.

In 130 IP at the AA/AAA levels Wright has pretty consistently had a K/9 just under 9, and a BB/9 right around 3. At this pointy it's probably fair to remove him from TOR consideration, but he could still post K and BB rates slightly better than MLB average for SP.

SPs who live in that 8+ K/9 and ~3 BB/9 range over 150+ IP are usually #3/#4 SPs who post 2-3 fWAR.

Here is a list of those guys from 2017: https://www.fangraphs.com/leaderssp...oPt=true&players=&pg=0&pageItems=30&sort=22,1

Lower the BB range from 2.8-3.2 (Grade 50 control) down to 2.3-2.7 (Grade 60 control), and you can bump that up to a solid #3 that gets argued about being a #2 from fans of his team.
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TOR is definitely unlikely. I wouldn't totally close the door on it just because he does seem to be someone whose stuff outstrips his numbers. So there's a hope (albeit one so small as to be almost fanciful) that he can tap some of that to improve the K rate a la Gerrit Cole and reach that TOR potential his stuff gives him. But it's definitely going to take a jump that is not at all common or predictable.

Still, if he becomes a solid #3 it's hard to complain. I could easily see him being a #3 who peaks as a fringe #2 for a couple seasons in his prime.
 
Enscheff said:
Wright's AAA k/9 is sitting at 8.77 with a BB/9 at 2.81.

His 2.81 AAA ERA is a bit of a mirage due to his minuscule .175 BABIP against.

In 130 IP at the AA/AAA levels Wright has pretty consistently had a K/9 just under 9, and a BB/9 right around 3. At this pointy it's probably fair to remove him from TOR consideration, but he could still post K and BB rates slightly better than MLB average for SP.

SPs who live in that 8+ K/9 and ~3 BB/9 range over 150+ IP are usually #3/#4 SPs who post 2-3 fWAR.

Here is a list of those guys from 2017: https://www.fangraphs.com/leaderssp...oPt=true&players=&pg=0&pageItems=30&sort=22,1

Lower the BB range from 2.8-3.2 (Grade 50 control) down to 2.3-2.7 (Grade 60 control), and you can bump that up to a solid #3 that gets argued about being a #2 from fans of his team.
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yup, i'd prefer him to be more dominant and while he's been good and fine, he hasn't been dominant.
 
He's also been pushed up the ladder aggressively. I am not as concerned with the strikeouts. They can jump a lot with improvement in sequencing and little nuances with the breaking ball. I was more concerned that he was getting lit up quite a bit early in the year. That's gone away.
 
striker42 said:
TOR is definitely unlikely. I wouldn't totally close the door on it just because he does seem to be someone whose stuff outstrips his numbers. So there's a hope (albeit one so small as to be almost fanciful) that he can tap some of that to improve the K rate a la Gerrit Cole and reach that TOR potential his stuff gives him. But it's definitely going to take a jump that is not at all common or predictable.

Still, if he becomes a solid #3 it's hard to complain. I could easily see him being a #3 who peaks as a fringe #2 for a couple seasons in his prime.
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I'm not so sure Wright has special stuff. FG doesn't list a single pitch from him better than a 60 present or future. Without statcast data there is no way for us to know otherwise.

This could be just what he is. A very valuable rotation mainstay, but not the TOR stud we all hoped for when he fell to the Braves at #5.
 
Enscheff said:
I'm not so sure Wright has special stuff. FG doesn't list a single pitch from him better than a 60 present or future. Without statcast data there is no way for us to know otherwise.

This could be just what he is. A very valuable rotation mainstay, but not the TOR stud we all hoped for when he fell to the Braves at #5.
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If I gave you 10k to bet on one brave pitching prospect to be TOR guy, who would you place it on?
 
msstate7 said:
If I gave you 10k to bet on one brave pitching prospect to be TOR guy, who would you place it on?
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Depends on how you define "TOR".

If "TOR" means a slam dunk Ace who competes for CY Awards for 3-5 straight years posting 5+ fWAR (role 70 player), I don't think the Braves have a guy with even a 10% chance of doing that. The most likely scenario being Gohara figuring out how to be a professional athlete and living up to his potential.

If "TOR" simply means a guy who produces a single 4+ win season and makes fans argue over whether or not he's an Ace, the Braves have several. Take all the guys projected to have 2 pitches graded 60 or better (Gohara, Wright, Anderson, Touki), add in Soroka for his potentially plus control, and pick one. All are potential legit #3s with a chance to peak higher.
 
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I take a healthy Soroka as my bet. I like Folty too. He may only last a few season as “ace”. But I like home to have a monster season next year
 
Take a guy like Aaron Nola, what's the biggest difference between he and Wright? Is his control just that much better? is his stuff a good bit better? Is Nola just a bit of a unicorn?
 
Supposedly based off of secondhand information, Wright is a similar case like Touki was until recently. The Braves took away his best pitch for developmental purposes to develop a weaker pitch more, and in the last couple months they've been loosening the reigns on him. His last 11 starts dating back to June 13th, he's striking out more than a batter per inning. Even including AA, it has a low BABIP, but to me, it's balancing out from how his luck was earlier. The overall on the season, a .293 BABIP is very balanced.

Edit: Also, looking at Nola, it's very interesting because his K rate wasn't really that high before he came up (9.1 K/9 in AAA, but he had a 6.9 K/9 in AA, hmm), but comparing Wright to SEC lefties like Wood and Minor that we had, while he's tracking well, Wood absolutely blows him away (1.26 ERA in AA, 9 K/9, .261 BABIP, amazing stuff, basically skipped AAA into having a good major league career when he's on the mound, as his starts in AAA have just been spot outings), and Minor is a bit more comparable, outside of he struck everyone out from the get go (3.44 ERA in 20 starts, BABIP at .301 and a 10.9 K/9).
 
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