Surplus Value Calcs

[clvclv]

For those "in the know"...

Do you typically use any of the online tools (https://www.patreon.com/vibbot or something else) or do you do your calculations on the fly?

 

[Enscheff]

I usually do a half-assed WAR projection (increase it slightly into their late-20s, then decrease it slowly into their 30s), and multiply it by ~$9M. Then subtract what's owed to the player.

These values won't ever match up any more accurately than +/- 10% (when comparing to things like prospect values), so these types of guesstimates are fine, imo. They get you in the ballpark of what might be "fair".

 

[Carp]

^
Pretty much this.

I generally assume about a .5 WAR decrease per year after they turn 30. Then I multiply by 9. Only hiccups for me tend to be from estimating arby contracts. I'm not particularly well versed on that and just use a rough guesstimate based on similar players.