Swanson & Camargo

[nsacpi]

Let's start with similarities: Both are 23. Both enjoyed BABIP-fueled early success in the majors. Swanson with a BABIP of .383 last year in 145 PAs. Camargo with a BABIP of .413 so far this year in 111 PAs. Both had a red flag in the form of strikeout rates north of 20%. 23% for Dansby last year (it remains at 23% this year) and 22% for Camargo so far this year.

Now the differences: Swanson walks more (both in the majors and minors). Swanson has better range at short. Camargo has the better arm and hands, and makes fewer careless mistakes.

There are two things that are too early to reach firm conclusions on, but need to be considered. Up until this year I would have said Swanson has the edge in power. But there are indications this year (both in AAA and the majors) that Camargo is developing some power. Physically he has filled out, so it would not be surprising. I think it is an open question which one will end up having more power. I lean toward Camargo.

The other question is which direction their strikeout rates are headed. I think it will come down for both. Based on minor league track record and approach at the plate, I am more confident of this happening with Camargo and expect it to happen to a greater extent with him.

 

[thethe]

Any thoughts on the fact that Swanson is helpless against a single pitch? He just doesn't have a clue on how to hit a good slider yet.

The book isn't out on camargo yet so he could be afflicted with the same shortcoming.

 

[nsacpi]

Any thoughts on the fact that Swanson is helpless against a single pitch? He just doesn't have a clue on how to hit a good slider yet.

The book isn't out on camargo yet so he could be afflicted with the same shortcoming.

I alluded to that when I talked about Camargo having a better approach. In addition to trouble with the slider, I think Swanson's bat is a little slow. It looks to me that Camargo has more bat speed and fewer holes. But we haven't seen the league make adjustments to Camargo yet. So we need to wait to see what his weaknesses are.

 

[thethe]

I alluded to that when I talked about Camargo having a better approach. In addition to trouble with the slider, I think Swanson's bat is a little slow. It looks to me that Camargo has more bat speed and fewer holes. But we haven't seen the league make adjustments to Camargo yet. So we need to wait to see what his weaknesses are.

It appears to my untrained eye that camargo has more bat control as well. When he is fooled he still has a beeter idea where the bat head is. He is able to get fooled and still foul off pitches. I haven't seen that out of Swanson yet and it's an important skill to have.

 

[Jay212033]

I wish the Braves would go ahead and pull the trigger on Phillps at that point you could play both guys and see what they could do. Imo Swanson is a better 2nd baseman than SS

 

[TheBravos]

Camargo has shown improvement with playing time. He could very well improve a lot more. I like Dansby, but you can't play a guy just because you like him or because he was a #1 pick. You play the guy that earns it.

 

[The Tariff King]

I wish the Braves would go ahead and pull the trigger on Phillps at that point you could play both guys and see what they could do. Imo Swanson is a better 2nd baseman than SS

All more the reason I was upset that Albies was essentially demoted to 2B for Swan.

 

[thewupk]

I wish the Braves would go ahead and pull the trigger on Phillps at that point you could play both guys and see what they could do. Imo Swanson is a better 2nd baseman than SS

Minor league numbers don't support that. He's also 14th in UZR and 9th in DRS among shortstops. He's got the ability to play the position well.

 

[Enscheff]

Braves made the right call to move Albies to 2b. All the numbers suggest Swanson is the superior defender.

There were always rumblings that Swanson was more of a 2-3 win average player, rather than a star. That's perfectly fine for a cost controlled player.

I would be willing to bet any amount of money that by the time Camargo and Swanson each have 1000 PAs, Swanson will prove to be the superior offensive player.

 

[Oklahomabrave]

Braves made the right call to move Albies to 2b. All the numbers suggest Swanson is the superior defender.

There were always rumblings that Swanson was more of a 2-3 win average player, rather than a star. That's perfectly fine for a cost controlled player.

I would be willing to bet any amount of money that by the time Camargo and Swanson each have 1000 PAs, Swanson will prove to be the superior offensive player.

Yeah that seems like a pretty safe bet. I've been pleased that it looks like Camargo could be a really good bench option. Hell, maybe he could even end up being an alright starting SS for a few years. Him being reason to demote Swanson/trade Albies etc. is a pretty knee jerk reaction.

 

[Enscheff]

Tomorrow when I get to my work PC I'll calculate what his slash line would look like if he had a more realistic BABIP of .300 instead of .400.

The results won't be pretty. Just a quick calc using the numbers currently posted on FG (this last game was not included yet), his BA would drop from .307 to about .238. There would be similarly large drops in his OBP and SLG too.

Quick estimate is a ~.625 OPS rather than his current .776 OPS.

I have a feeling we aren't even having this discussion if Camargo was rocking a .625 OPS right now with a more sustainable .300 BABIP.

 

[thethe]

Why should we automatically normalize a player to a 300 BABIP? Isn't that too simplistic?

 

[Tapate50]

Tomorrow when I get to my work PC I'll calculate what his slash line would look like if he had a more realistic BABIP of .300 instead of .400.

The results won't be pretty. Just a quick calc using the numbers currently posted on FG (this last game was not included yet), his BA would drop from .307 to about .238. There would be similarly large drops in his OBP and SLG too.

Quick estimate is a ~.625 OPS rather than his current .776 OPS.

I have a feeling we aren't even having this discussion if Camargo was rocking a .625 OPS right now with a more sustainable .300 BABIP.

Whats his ops over his last 400 Abs at AAA?

Just a small sample or does it bear considering improvement ?

 

[nsacpi]

Braves made the right call to move Albies to 2b. All the numbers suggest Swanson is the superior defender.

There were always rumblings that Swanson was more of a 2-3 win average player, rather than a star. That's perfectly fine for a cost controlled player.

I would be willing to bet any amount of money that by the time Camargo and Swanson each have 1000 PAs, Swanson will prove to be the superior offensive player.

The walk rate provides Swanson with an edge. And makes him the favorite to be the superior offensive player. But there is a non-trivial probability that Camargo will have the lower strikeout rate and better power.

 

[nsacpi]

Why should we automatically normalize a player to a 300 BABIP? Isn't that too simplistic?

that's a fairly typical BABIP...you could argue a little higher for both Swanson and Camargo...maybe .320...but neither seems likely to be a high BABIP player

 

[nsacpi]

Whats his ops over his last 400 Abs at AAA?

he has only had 134 PAs in AAA...his OPS was .853 with a BABIP of .340

last year in 491 PAs in AA, his OPS was .684 in 491 PAs with a .317 BABIP

The AA sample is obviously larger. But young players do improve, though I suspect not as much as appears to be the case with Camargo. Some improvement, but also significant regression coming.

 

[Super]

but neither seems likely to be a high BABIP player

what do you consider high and why can't they be in the .320-.340 range?

 

[nsacpi]

what do you consider high and why can't they be in the .320-.340 range?

Lord BABIP (remember him?) had a career BABIP of .353. Freeman has a career BABIP of .342.

Something in the .320-.340 is possible, but would put them in the high BABIP category. .320 is possible for Swanson and Camargo on a sustainable basis. .340 I don't think so.

 

[Super]

Lord BABIP (remember him?) had a career BABIP of .353. Freeman has a career BABIP of .342.

Something in the .320-.340 is possible, but would put them in the high BABIP category. .320 is possible for Swanson and Camargo on a sustainable basis. .340 I don't think so.

That's fair, I don't see a career .340 BABIP for either of them. But I think one of them could end up doing it throughout whole seasons throughout their careers.

 

[JxnMissFan]

How did all the resident prospect experts around here miss that Carmargo is essentially equal to Dans and Ozzie when they were playing in the same infield last year?