nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
Over the next few days I'm going to take a look at depth within our system on a position by position basis. I'll kick things off with middle infield. Mostly, I'll focus on what's on the farm, but will include players we have under contractual control for five or more years at the major league level. I'm going to classify the players into three categories. Those I think are likely major league starting material, bench players, and fringe guys.
Starters: Simmons and Peraza. Simmons obviously is already a very good player in the majors. We will have him under control for five more years after this season. My guess is he is going to be our shortstop for a very long time. Jose Peraza is arguably our best position prospect. He's made 29 errors in Rome this year. But errors can be misleading for young players. Peraza is generally considered to have the tools to stick at short. But with Simmons there his future is probably at second. Estimated major league arrival time: 2016-17. He is also an excellent base stealer (61 steals, 15 CS this year) and has a decent eye at the plate, which means he could be our leadoff hitter of the future as well.
Bench Players: Pastornicky, La Stella, Camargo, Castro I think these four project as infield reserves, whether with us or some other major league team. I'd be happy to hold on to both Pastornicky and La Stella, but I think ultimately Pastornicky will prove to be the more valuable player. He's a year younger, has more speed, more positional versatility and is more athletic. La Stella basically is a very good singles hitter, with a very low strikeout rate. Camargo played mostly short this year in Danville, but I suspect he will not be able to stick there as he moves up the system. He's probably not going to be much more than a singles hitter. Maybe a slightly better version of Diory Hernandez. Daniel Castro is a 20 year old we brought in from the Mexican League who held his own in Lynchburg. He was once in our system in the DSL. It is impressive that he held his own in a league where he was one of the younger players. At this point shows very little power, and does not project to develop much.
Fringe: Reyes, Reynolds, Harper. Reyes boosted his prospect stock this year with an excellent season in Lynchburg at age 22. He's athletic and has a good enough glove to stick at short. Has very little power and I suspect some of his improvement this year was a BABIP illusion. I'm curious to see how he does in the AFL. Reynolds and Harper were drafted as college seniors and played against younger players in Danville and the GCL respectively. They did well, but we need to see them in a full-season league before drawing any conclusions. Even if they continue to hit, they are more likely to play at second or third than short as they move up the system.
Conclusion: The long-term future at second and short is pretty clear. Peraza and Simmons. The cloudy part is the transition period between Uggla and Peraza. Will Uggla stick around the last two years of his contract? Will he be eased out in favor of Pastornicky or La Stella or the currently injured Ramiro Pena? Will the team explore an external option? These things are on the table. My guess is that in 2014-2015 we will have an increasingly competitive position sharing sort of arrangement at second between Uggla, Pastornicky, Pena and La Stella.
Starters: Simmons and Peraza. Simmons obviously is already a very good player in the majors. We will have him under control for five more years after this season. My guess is he is going to be our shortstop for a very long time. Jose Peraza is arguably our best position prospect. He's made 29 errors in Rome this year. But errors can be misleading for young players. Peraza is generally considered to have the tools to stick at short. But with Simmons there his future is probably at second. Estimated major league arrival time: 2016-17. He is also an excellent base stealer (61 steals, 15 CS this year) and has a decent eye at the plate, which means he could be our leadoff hitter of the future as well.
Bench Players: Pastornicky, La Stella, Camargo, Castro I think these four project as infield reserves, whether with us or some other major league team. I'd be happy to hold on to both Pastornicky and La Stella, but I think ultimately Pastornicky will prove to be the more valuable player. He's a year younger, has more speed, more positional versatility and is more athletic. La Stella basically is a very good singles hitter, with a very low strikeout rate. Camargo played mostly short this year in Danville, but I suspect he will not be able to stick there as he moves up the system. He's probably not going to be much more than a singles hitter. Maybe a slightly better version of Diory Hernandez. Daniel Castro is a 20 year old we brought in from the Mexican League who held his own in Lynchburg. He was once in our system in the DSL. It is impressive that he held his own in a league where he was one of the younger players. At this point shows very little power, and does not project to develop much.
Fringe: Reyes, Reynolds, Harper. Reyes boosted his prospect stock this year with an excellent season in Lynchburg at age 22. He's athletic and has a good enough glove to stick at short. Has very little power and I suspect some of his improvement this year was a BABIP illusion. I'm curious to see how he does in the AFL. Reynolds and Harper were drafted as college seniors and played against younger players in Danville and the GCL respectively. They did well, but we need to see them in a full-season league before drawing any conclusions. Even if they continue to hit, they are more likely to play at second or third than short as they move up the system.
Conclusion: The long-term future at second and short is pretty clear. Peraza and Simmons. The cloudy part is the transition period between Uggla and Peraza. Will Uggla stick around the last two years of his contract? Will he be eased out in favor of Pastornicky or La Stella or the currently injured Ramiro Pena? Will the team explore an external option? These things are on the table. My guess is that in 2014-2015 we will have an increasingly competitive position sharing sort of arrangement at second between Uggla, Pastornicky, Pena and La Stella.
