Talkingchop article about trading Kimbrel

[Russ2dollas]

Trading Kimbrel without getting just an obsene return is stupid. Trade Kimbrel and then you are still going to have to overpay or trade decent prospects for a closer unless you want Jordan Walden closing out games for you.

Maybe Wren is thinking, well Fredi wont' use him, might as well get a piece Fredi will use.

I thought you were an advanced metric guy.

The Braves should flip Kimbrel this year. It makes sense from a financial standpoint and from a common sense standpoint. This is where the Braves can maximize his value based on what he has done for them so far and what he can bring in return.

He's a 1 inning reliever who won't get to pitch much if this team can't score more runs. He's not part of our playoff picture b/c we don't score enough runs vs good pitching to matter.

Kimbrel needs to be sent away if we can get a long term answer at 2B/3B + some quality pieces or dump Uggla. I don't know what that is, but if you get a prospect who you think can play this year and be a future stud at 3B or 2B, then you build that package. Ask them to take Uggla. Most likely you get a young 3B with a high upside bat in low minors, and a couple of power arms.

We can do closer by committee based on match ups. We won't with Fredi, but it's what we should do.

I don't know if that stud guy is out there. I don't think Profar will be traded. I don't think someone like Olt would be a good enough prospect. It would have to be an elite guy.

 

[Enscheff]

You need to go a step deeper on analysis of saves (at least in my opinion). Bill James used to "grade" saves on difficulty (how big a lead is being protected, etc.). I dont know how Kimbrel stacks up in that regard.

Yes, but the point is that a legit closer will convert ~90% of his save opportunities. Someone like the guys I listed would likely have saved pretty much as many games as Kimbrel did this year given the same chances.

I guess what I'm trying to say is that the team will still be pretty much just as successful with a "good" closer rather than an "elite" closer. Especially if giving up Kimbrel allows Wren to fix 2B, unload Uggla, and/or bring in that "Ace" everyone is clamoring to obtain.

Upgrading from Uggla to a 3 WAR guy at 2B will help a lot more than downgrading from Kimbrel to someone like Benoit will hurt.

 

[Knucksie]

Kimbrel needs to be sent away if we can get a long term answer at 2B/3B + some quality pieces or dump Uggla. I don't know what that is, but if you get a prospect who you think can play this year and be a future stud at 3B or 2B, then you build that package. Ask them to take Uggla. Most likely you get a young 3B with a high upside bat in low minors, and a couple of power arms.

Who's willing to do all that?

 

[ChapelHillMatt]

If elite closers aren't that important and you could be just as good by replacing him with an average one then why would someone give up a great package for one?

 

[PawPawMaxwell]

Who's willing to do all that?

Det for Castellanos is still the best bet IMO.

Like it or not, our best and maybe only CHANCE to salvage anything with Uggla is Cincinnati. I look at Uggla as lost money. Question is: Is Phillips worth 24M over 4 years. Then again, we dont even know if Cincy is interested.

Would Texas have a need for Kimbrel and JUpton? Profar and some prospects from their deep farm. Would make dumping Uggla infinitely affordable.

 

[nsacpi]

If elite closers aren't that important and you could be just as good by replacing him with an average one then why would someone give up a great package for one?

Some GMs might have a different view. The contract the Phillies gave Papelbon suggests they see things differently. The Mets once gave K-Rod a ridiculous contract.

 

[PawPawMaxwell]

If elite closers aren't that important and you could be just as good by replacing him with an average one then why would someone give up a great package for one?

Teams on the cusp of greatness. Like Detroit. I keep harping on Detroit but if they had not had to go thru Rondon and Valverde BEFORE settling for Benoit, how much better would their record have been. Their bullpen was absolutely terrible this year. How many blown saves, how many blown holds?

 

[ChapelHillMatt]

Teams on the cusp of greatness. Like Detroit. I keep harping on Detroit but if they had not had to go thru Rondon and Valverde BEFORE settling for Benoit, how much better would their record have been. Their bullpen was absolutely terrible this year. How many blown saves, how many blown holds?

That pretty much illustrates my point. Finding someone to fill that role isn't easy. People are acting like just anybody can do it. Having that security blanket is pretty important, if you don't you could find yourself losing a lot of close games and/or having to warm up pitchers you don't end up using because you don't have confidence in the guy that is pitching the 9th. The reason the Braves have won so many close games the last few years is because our late inning relief was so dominant.

 

[jdunn]

Teams on the cusp of greatness. Like Detroit. I keep harping on Detroit but if they had not had to go thru Rondon and Valverde BEFORE settling for Benoit, how much better would their record have been. Their bullpen was absolutely terrible this year. How many blown saves, how many blown holds?

Just think what Detroit would have given up for Kimbrel at the deadline. I don't know if filling that role is easy, I don't think it is, just ask Wohlers, Kolb, Lidge, etc... At the moment, Kimbrel is putting together a HOF caliber career. If he was a right fielder, he'd be the talk of baseball, same as if he played in Boston or NY.

I know very little about hitting a baseball, maybe just a bit more than Uggla or BJ, but not much more. The one thing every major league ball player has is ability. The one thing that separates the average from the good and the great from the good is confidence, and I dare say there is very few if any major league ball players that step into the box confident that they are going to have success off of Kimbrel. You can't say that about average closers.

 

[nsacpi]

Anyone remember who the closers were for the Cardinals and Red Sox at the start of the season? How hard were they to replace? How hard were Venters and EOF to replace?

There has been a little revolution in baseball. Through some combination of natural selection and biomechanics, every pen has multiple pitchers with fastballs in the mid to high 90s. Potentially all of those guys can close. A decent pitching coach can tighten up their control and help them sharpen up their second pitch. And presto you have a David Carpenter. Of course a David Carpenter is not a Craig Kimbrel. As we saw. But he was a pretty good pitcher for us. Between Carpenter, Walden and Avilan I don't think we'd miss Kimbrel that much.

 

[PawPawMaxwell]

Just think what Detroit would have given up for Kimbrel at the deadline. I don't know if filling that role is easy, I don't think it is, just ask Wohlers, Kolb, Lidge, etc... At the moment, Kimbrel is putting together a HOF caliber career. If he was a right fielder, he'd be the talk of baseball, same as if he played in Boston or NY.

I know very little about hitting a baseball, maybe just a bit more than Uggla or BJ, but not much more. The one thing every major league ball player has is ability. The one thing that separates the average from the good and the great from the good is confidence, and I dare say there is very few if any major league ball players that step into the box confident that they are going to have success off of Kimbrel. You can't say that about average closers.

Ted Williams said the thing that separated him from the field when it came to hitting was his eye sight. Said his was something like 15/10 in a world where 20/20 is considered excellent. Maybe Uggla needs to read an eye chart.

 

[gilesfan]

I thought you were an advanced metric guy.

The Braves should flip Kimbrel this year. It makes sense from a financial standpoint and from a common sense standpoint. This is where the Braves can maximize his value based on what he has done for them so far and what he can bring in return.

He's a 1 inning reliever who won't get to pitch much if this team can't score more runs. He's not part of our playoff picture b/c we don't score enough runs vs good pitching to matter.

Kimbrel needs to be sent away if we can get a long term answer at 2B/3B + some quality pieces or dump Uggla. I don't know what that is, but if you get a prospect who you think can play this year and be a future stud at 3B or 2B, then you build that package. Ask them to take Uggla. Most likely you get a young 3B with a high upside bat in low minors, and a couple of power arms.

We can do closer by committee based on match ups. We won't with Fredi, but it's what we should do.

I don't know if that stud guy is out there. I don't think Profar will be traded. I don't think someone like Olt would be a good enough prospect. It would have to be an elite guy.

You can paint me with whatever brush you want, but elite closers on the level of Kimbrel are extremely valuable.

 

[Heyward]

You can paint me with whatever brush you want, but elite closers on the level of Kimbrel are extremely valuable.

Would you pay Kimbrel 15-20 million per year on a contract?

 

[Enscheff]

That pretty much illustrates my point. Finding someone to fill that role isn't easy. People are acting like just anybody can do it. Having that security blanket is pretty important, if you don't you could find yourself losing a lot of close games and/or having to warm up pitchers you don't end up using because you don't have confidence in the guy that is pitching the 9th. The reason the Braves have won so many close games the last few years is because our late inning relief was so dominant.

I don't think a single person stated "anyone" could be the closer. We are arguing that the dropoff from Kimbrel to someone like Nathan, Balfour or Benoit would not be very significant. Most are suggesting the team would be better off with someone like Nathan plaus the return for Kimbrel, assuming the player(s) Wren gets for Kimbrel is significant.

And there are many teams that wouldn't even blink when considering paying Kimbrel $15M per year. The Braves obviously can't afford to spend that kind of cash on 60 innings pitched, but the Yanks would likely do so without hesitation.

Not surprisingly, a lot of people on this board have a hard time understanding that "selling high on Kimbrel" doesn't mean anyone thinks any less of him. If Wren can get a significant return, he should do it. If not...well nobody is suggesting Wren unloads Kimbrel juist to avoid paying him $7M next year.

 

[Knucksie]

Det for Castellanos is still the best bet IMO.

Like it or not, our best and maybe only CHANCE to salvage anything with Uggla is Cincinnati. I look at Uggla as lost money. Question is: Is Phillips worth 24M over 4 years. Then again, we dont even know if Cincy is interested.

Would Texas have a need for Kimbrel and JUpton? Profar and some prospects from their deep farm. Would make dumping Uggla infinitely affordable.

Have to show that Castellanos & Profar are even available. Still looks like idle chit chat.

BTW, Texas has both Nelson Cruz and Alex Rios on their 40 man roster. No real sense of urgency anymore for them on Justin Upton, like at deadline.

 

[PawPawMaxwell]

Have to show that Castellanos & Profar are even available. Still looks like idle chit chat.

BTW, Texas has both Nelson Cruz and Alex Rios on their 40 man roster. No real sense of urgency anymore for them on Justin Upton, like at deadline.

Thats what the off season is for where fans are concerned. Idle chit chat I mean.
Castellanos is blocked obviously until at least Cabrera becomes DH. Profar the same unless Texas can rid themselves of Kinsler. Doesnt look likely that he will give up 2nd. Cruz is a FA in all likelyhood.

 

[50PoundHead]

I don't think a single person stated "anyone" could be the closer. We are arguing that the dropoff from Kimbrel to someone like Nathan, Balfour or Benoit would not be very significant. Most are suggesting the team would be better off with someone like Nathan plaus the return for Kimbrel, assuming the player(s) Wren gets for Kimbrel is significant.

And there are many teams that wouldn't even blink when considering paying Kimbrel $15M per year. The Braves obviously can't afford to spend that kind of cash on 60 innings pitched, but the Yanks would likely do so without hesitation.

Not surprisingly, a lot of people on this board have a hard time understanding that "selling high on Kimbrel" doesn't mean anyone thinks any less of him. If Wren can get a significant return, he should do it. If not...well nobody is suggesting Wren unloads Kimbrel juist to avoid paying him $7M next year.

Nathan = Little dropoff

Balfour = Some dropoff

Benoit = A lot of dropoff and ulcers all around.

But you'd probably be paying Nathan pretty much the same as you would be Kimbrel in 2014 and Nathan is going to want at least two years.

Other guys wouldn't be as expensive.

I think Carpenter's performance in the post-season would be enough to raise questions as to whether or not he's up to being closer.

I think if we're going to trade Kimbrel, this would be the off-season to do it because his salary will be such that it could be accommodated rather easily.

 

[ChapelHillMatt]

Not surprisingly, a lot of people on this board have a hard time understanding that "selling high on Kimbrel" doesn't mean anyone thinks any less of him. If Wren can get a significant return, he should do it. If not...well nobody is suggesting Wren unloads Kimbrel juist to avoid paying him $7M next year.

Then there are those (like me) who don't have a problem "selling high" (don't like using that phrase because Kimbrel is elite, selling high indicates he can't repeat what he's done and I think we know he can and will) but still realize the replacing him means you are filling one hole by creating another. I don't agree that the drop off would be minimal so we will agree to disagree I guess.

 

[VirginiaBrave]

I really don't get this crowd sometimes. Y'all want to win a championship and yet you all want the roster blown up every year. You know the A1 reason we have only one championship? We did not have a dominant closer 3/4's of the time. We do now. They do not grow on trees. The only conceiveable reason to trade Kimbrel at this time is if we could see into the future and knew he was going to breakdown. The bottom line is the Braves are going to have to start paying people if a championship is the goal and it may as well start with CK. I thought the "fire Fredi" crap was bad, but Lord...

 

[Carp]

I don't think anyone is going to offer a package of prospects worthy enough to warrant trading Kimbrell. Even Kimbrell for Castenallos isn't enough honestly.

Ride him till he's a FA then let him go for a draft pick. yeah paying him 15 million in couple yrs won't be fun, but we are going to need him if we plan on winning a WS with the short window we have with these players.