Tankathon draft pick watch

bravesfanMatt said:
never mind. Miami and San Fran do bounce around a little. But again, it seems the Braves if they can maintain their position or improve it, would be at least a top 7 pick.. but much more likely to be higher..
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The top 6 are lottery picks. Every non playoff team gets thrown into the lottery except those that aren't eligible. Ater the 6 lottery picks are drawn it goes in order of worst record with the ineligible teams being put in at pick #10. So right now the Braves have the 2nd worst record of eligible teams. If by some miracle the White Sox and Braves aren't picked in the lottery then they will get the 7th and 8th picks respectively.

At this point. The Braves need to try and catch the Nats so they can increase their odds by a few % points.
 
thewupk said:
The top 6 are lottery picks. Every non playoff team gets thrown into the lottery except those that aren't eligible. Ater the 6 lottery picks are drawn it goes in order of worst record with the ineligible teams being put in at pick #10. So right now the Braves have the 2nd worst record of eligible teams. If by some miracle the White Sox and Braves aren't picked in the lottery then they will get the 7th and 8th picks respectively.

At this point. The Braves need to try and catch the Nats so they can increase their odds by a few % points.
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Aren't the Nats exempt?
 
Hudson2 said:
Aren't the Nats exempt?
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They are. But they still effect the % of getting the top draft pick by currently being 1 of the 3 worst teams. The 3 worst teams, without any exemptions, will all have the same odds. When you get removed those odds get distributed to the other teams. If the Braves can catch the Nats their odds will be the same as the White Sox.
 
thewupk said:
They are. But they still effect the % of getting the top draft pick by currently being 1 of the 3 worst teams. The 3 worst teams, without any exemptions, will all have the same odds. When you get removed those odds get distributed to the other teams. If the Braves can catch the Nats their odds will be the same as the White Sox.
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Awesome thanks for clearing that up.
 
bravesfanMatt said:
wait, how is that.. I thought ROY got you a comp pick after round 1... which is still very good for the pool.
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It does. The Royals ended up with pick 25 this year for Witt finishing top 3 while being on the pre-season top 100 list.

So we have a strong chance for a top 3 pick currently. Then the pick for Drake. And then our 2nd round pick (which should fall in the 40-50 range).
 
Carp said:
It does. The Royals ended up with pick 25 this year for Witt finishing top 3 while being on the pre-season top 100 list.

So we a strong chance for a top 3 pick currently. Then the pick for Drake. And then our 2nd round pick (which should fall in the 40-50 range).
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yes, the draft could be huge next season if everything breaks the way it should.
 
These are the current probabilities of getting the top pick. I'm not sure where other ideas for other values are coming from:

1 CHI White Sox 40-69 .367 11.5 Won 1 6-4 25.39%
2 Atlanta 45-62 .421 17.5 Lost 2 2-8 20.39%
3 Pittsburgh 47-62 .431 18.5 Won 5 8-2 15.39%
4 Athletics 48-63 .432 18.5 Won 2 6-4 11.54%
5 Baltimore 50-59 .459 21.5 Lost 1 6-4 8.46%
 
It's confusing to the say the least, but anything in the top 5 is good. MLB draft is not like NFL draft. There's still speculation and projecting for every pick and no slam dunks. Then you have situations like this year where the first two guys were likely underslot picks and the best players went 3rd/4th.
 
Enscheff said:
These are the current probabilities of getting the top pick. I'm not sure where other ideas for other values are coming from:

1 CHI White Sox 40-69 .367 11.5 Won 1 6-4 25.39%
2 Atlanta 45-62 .421 17.5 Lost 2 2-8 20.39%
3 Pittsburgh 47-62 .431 18.5 Won 5 8-2 15.39%
4 Athletics 48-63 .432 18.5 Won 2 6-4 11.54%
5 Baltimore 50-59 .459 21.5 Lost 1 6-4 8.46%
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Because the 3 worst records in baseball all have the same probability of getting the top pick. That changes once some of those teams start becoming ineligible. The Braves catching the Nats will improve their odds to same amount as the White Sox.
 
thewupk said:
Because the 3 worst records in baseball all have the same probability of getting the top pick. That changes once some of those teams start becoming ineligible. The Braves catching the Nats will improve their odds to same amount as the White Sox.
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So the Rockies, Nats and ChiSox all have the same shot at the top pick, but since the Rockies and Nats aren't eligible only the ChiSox have a better chance than the Braves.

If this is the case then being worse than the Nats should give the Braves equal chances as the ChoSox.
 
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