Teheran's change up

PurpleBrave

PurpleBrave

On BBA's Top 100 Prospects List
Posted Imagec_singleton Chris Singleton

According to #Fangraphs... Julio Teheran has thrown 110 changeups and given up 1 hit (single) with it this season.
 
Teheran is a legit ace I think and he's turning into a real craftsman... But did he majorly adjust his game or something? I seem to remember him coming up as a major fireballer hitting the upper 90s often in the low to mid minors... I rarely see him hit above 92-93 as a major leaguer. No matter what, the change up is sick and he looks like a seasoned vet out there now who knows the art of pitching.
 
He's throwing the changeup more than he did last year. As much as anything else, I think he's just mixing it in more to keep hitters off-balance and guessing. He has, in general, kept his slider down and spotted his fastball effectively, even as he's kept the velo down a tick or two. He's effectively commanding four pitches right now (4sfb, 2sfb, slider, change), which is one of the reasons, IMO, that his HR/FB is down and he's outpitching his peripherals. His BABIP against won't stay at .215, but I don't think he's succeeding because of dumb luck alone.
 
He's very good, but unfortunately a huge regression candidate. Still think he will be a low to mid 3 ERA guy, which is certainly a worthwhile top or near top of the rotation pitcher.

Certainly not dumb luck, but league leader is usually around .240 or so. So, his ERA can decline a bit and still be very good
 
Why would you think his ERA is going to regress that much? Seems like he is getting more command of his pitches as he matures. I see him as a 2.5-2.8 guy.
 
thethe said:
Why would you think his ERA is going to regress that much? Seems like he is getting more command of his pitches as he matures. I see him as a 2.5-2.8 guy.
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FIP 3.66
xFIP 3.86
Sierra 3.73

Not intending to knock the guy, but his peripherals don't support and ERA with a 2 in front of it. 7.25 k/9, 2.08 bb/9, 0.99 hr/9.....all solid numbers, but ERAs with 2 in front are elite.

Some guys you can explain why they under or over perform there FIP and it's often ground ball pitchers that don't strike out as many guys, but play in front of a good infield. Teheran's outperforming of his ERA is due to BABIP of .215 and LOB% of 88%. Hes a fly ball pitcher 38% GB rate, yet has given up less than 1 HR/9 due to a sub 10% HR/FB rate.

I guess playing in a big park with some good OF defense may help him a little as a flyball pitcher, but I don't think there is many pitchers than can consistently outperform their peripherals by a full run. I gave him some benefit of the doubt bc he's young, mixes pitches well, and plays in a bigger park, but I don't see how he would project to an ERA in the 2s.

EDIT: I'm talking in the near future. Who knows what the future entails. He could learn to miss some more bats and get some more ground balls.
 
Peripherals are primarily driven by strikeouts. There are other ways to get guys out and induce weak contact. I'd love to see some information regarding which pitchers generate the most break on their pitches focusing primarily on late movement. Teheran has underrated movement on his 2 seamer and slider IMO.
 
thethe said:
Peripherals are primarily driven by strikeouts. There are other ways to get guys out and induce weak contact. I'd love to see some information regarding which pitchers generate the most break on their pitches focusing primarily on late movement. Teheran has underrated movement on his 2 seamer and slider IMO.
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Strikeouts, walks, homers, fly ball rate......things a pitcher has significant control over.

Last years leaders in BABIP with this years numbers in parenthesis:

Fernandez .240 (.271)
Wood .248 (.309)
Kershaw .251 (.333)
Bumgardner .251 (.320)
Iwakuma .252 (.268)

Also note, what parks these guys pitch in.

Just to compare to a guy that had late movement and pinpoint control:

Maddux had a lifetime ERA of 3.16, FIP 3.26, xFIP 3.72

His BABIP seasons ranged from .244 to .324 and averaged .281.
 
The only chance he has to keep his ERA under 3 is for his high home run rate to lower. If he can work on getting his home runs down he could still have a great ERA despite the inevitable increase of his BABIP.
 
NinersSBChamps said:
The women next to me laughed when I said Julio was our ace.
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This was while he was getting killed? This is why chicks shouldn't watch baseball.

He's as acey as a lot of aces, and more acey than others. The thing I like is when he has a bad outing, he absolutely sucks. Looks like it's going to happen 3-4 times a year. Most of the time though, he's an ace. Shoot, he just had a 7 run outing to bump his ERA over 2.00. That's acey.
 
GovClintonTyree said:
This was while he was getting killed? This is why chicks shouldn't watch baseball.

He's as acey as a lot of aces, and more acey than others. The thing I like is when he has a bad outing, he absolutely sucks. Looks like it's going to happen 3-4 times a year. Most of the time though, he's an ace. Shoot, he just had a 7 run outing to bump his ERA over 2.00. That's acey.
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+1 for your use of the word acey.
 
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