The 2018 Midterms

That is for Minnesota ?

And how do you think the state legislature will look (along partisan lines) Wednesday morning ?

I live bordering Fla and Ga and I see no change in either state results. Save governorship's
 
Anyone have any bold predictions? Or even not-bold predictions?

For most of this cycle I’ve thought that Ds would probably net lose ground in the Senate, because the brutal map (including uninspiring incumbents) and good economy didn’t give them any daylight. As it stands today, I think they’ll hold at 49-51 or even net one seat. Still don’t think they will win it, but there is a non-zero chance, which is better than I rated it before. That would depend on three of TX, TN, NV, AZ flipping while Ds hold all of their seats except ND, where Heitkamp seems done. I think it’s likeliest that 3/4 of those go R, with NV and AZ being the likeliest upsets.

I think the House is going to be a 35-seat bloodbath.
 
57Brave said:
That is for Minnesota ?

And how do you think the state legislature will look (along partisan lines) Wednesday morning ?

I live bordering Fla and Ga and I see no change in either state results. Save governorship's
Click to expand...

Minnesota's Senate is 33-33 with a special election to decide control. Full Senate is not up for election until 2020. Republican seat but Dems have run a solid candidate who could possibly pull an upset. Minnesota House is 77R-57D. Would take a net gain for the Dems of 11 and while that is possible, it's not likely. They would have to sweep the suburbs and pick up some rural seats and they have not done well in rural Minnesota for quite awhile.
 
Since they have the earliest closing times, Kentucky and Indiana will provide the first real data on the elections. As it happens they have some races that are being heavily contested.

Kentucky's 6th district (Republican Andy Barr running for re-election) is rated a toss up by Cook Political Report. If the GOP holds this one, could be a sign that they will keep their losses under 30 seats.

Indiana's 2nd (with Republican Jackie Walorski running for re-election) is rated likely Republican. If this one goes Democratic or is very close it would be a sign of a bad night for the GOP (as in 40+ loss of seats in the House).

Indiana's 9th (Republican Trey Hollingsworth running for re-election) is rated safe Republican by Cook. If both the 2nd and 9th go Democratic or are very close it could be a very bad night for the GOP (as in 50+ loss of House seats)

The Indiana Senate race is very close too. The Democrats need the equivalent of an inside straight to win control of the Senate. Losing this seat would eliminate their already slim chances.
 
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Julio3000 said:
Anyone have any bold predictions? Or even not-bold predictions?

For most of this cycle I’ve thought that Ds would probably net lose ground in the Senate, because the brutal map (including uninspiring incumbents) and good economy didn’t give them any daylight. As it stands today, I think they’ll hold at 49-51 or even net one seat. Still don’t think they will win it, but there is a non-zero chance, which is better than I rated it before. That would depend on three of TX, TN, NV, AZ flipping while Ds hold all of their seats except ND, where Heitkamp seems done. I think it’s likeliest that 3/4 of those go R, with NV and AZ being the likeliest upsets.

I think the House is going to be a 35-seat bloodbath.
Click to expand...

Looks like the late movement in the polls is toward the Dems. I'm guessing 40-50 gain in House seats. But looks like the GOP will win the Senate. McCaskill seems to be in trouble in MO. But there seems to be some late movement toward Beto in TX. I'm guessing the MO race is the one that keeps the Senate in Republican hands. Winning there would give them the margin to lose in the other close races, including TX, and still hold on to the Senate.
 
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Sahil Kapur
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Trump warns in Missouri that "if Democrats gain power on Tuesday, one of their very first projects will be a socialist takeover of health care... The Democrat plan would obliterate Obamacare."

he's an idiot, thinks his supporters are idiots, and is also legitimately insane.
i will never stop wondering what on earth people see in this guy.
 
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Sahil Kapur
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Trump warns in Missouri that "if Democrats gain power on Tuesday, one of their very first projects will be a socialist takeover of health care... The Democrat plan would obliterate Obamacare."

he's an idiot, thinks his supporters are idiots, and is also legitimately insane.
i will never stop wondering what on earth people see in this guy.
Click to expand...

he's probably referencing the fact that a lot of Dems have moved toward favoring a single payer system replacing Obamacare
 
Voter turnout is going to be everything. Excited to get our first real data going into 2020. Not ruling anything out at this point.
 
nick wright
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12m12 minutes ago

John Elway endorsed a Supreme Court candidate on Broncos letterhead.

The owner of the Cardinals endorsed a Supreme Court candidate on their team website.

The Dolphins just told people how to vote on a specific ballot initiative.

But Kap brought politics to the NFL.
 
I’m calling Dem wins in 2 of Tennessee, Texas and Arizona, but still end up with only 49 seats (including the two Is)
 
nsacpi said:
he's probably referencing the fact that a lot of Dems have moved toward favoring a single payer system replacing Obamacare
Click to expand...


Those who would vote based on a favorable view of Obamacare aren’t likely to be opposed to Single Payer.
 
Kira Lerner
‏Verified account @kira_lerner

I’m at Annistown Elementary School in Snellville, GA,

where hundreds of voters have waited 4.5 hours

to vote today because electronic voting machines

weren’t working
 
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