The 2018 Midterms

interested - we might have a conversation around this

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Matthew Yglesias
‏Verified account @mattyglesias

Your theory of why Obama’s party lost seats downballot during his run
in the White House should account for the fact that the same thing happened
under Eisenhower, Kennedy/Johnson, Nixon/Ford, Reagan/Bush, Clinton, and W Bush.

Matthew Yglesias
‏

Perhaps each incumbent party spontaneously adopted a failed business model that their charismatic leader was unable to surmount.

Or perhaps maybe it’s structural.

But either way, it deserves an explicit theory.
 
Speaker Ryan

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Kyle Griffin
‏Verified account @kylegriffin1
1h1 hour ago

Beto O’Rourke is within the margin of error of Ted Cruz in the Texas senate race.

Cruz 47
O’Rourke 44

MOE +/-3.6%
@QuinnipiacPoll

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Independent vote is key here. Cruz running as a Republican really damaged his Washington “outsider” cred it would appear.
 
The hilarity of an Irish-American with a Spanish nickname runnng against a Cuban-American with an Anglo nickname is just too much.
 



Democrats must be getting desperate. Real ****ing bold when you don't have any real power. Going to place the odds on this being forgotten about when the democrats take control of Congress at 100%. Still feels like we are moving forward when we have Boehner and Schumer coming out for legalization. This wouldn't be happening if Hillary was president
 
Nah, this is pretty much inevitable, albeit moving slower than I expected. It should be low-hanging fruit with Sessions, et al as a counterpoint, though.
 
Julio3000 said:
Nah, this is pretty much inevitable, albeit moving slower than I expected. It should be low-hanging fruit with Sessions, et al as a counterpoint, though.
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Inevitable yes but the timing is very suspect. The general consensus is that this is just a PR stunt to gain votes and they wont follow through if they take back Congress. I do think there is a legitimate chance Trump will veto a bill like this because I think Sessions has dirt on Trump.
 
It would be a waste of a political opportunity if they got the numbers and didn't press the issue. That said, they're not exactly the deftest bunch.
 
Julio3000 said:
It would be a waste of a political opportunity if they got the numbers and didn't press the issue. That said, they're not exactly the deftest bunch.
Click to expand...
Should be a no brainer.

I wonder how many gun rights voters are also weed lovers.
 
G. Elliott Morris
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‏ @gelliottmorris
2m2 minutes ago

Wow, this is unexpected. In NY #AD102 HD102,

the Democratic candidate is up 3 points with 63% of votes reporting.

This is an R-held seat that Trump won by 23 points.
 
Perhaps the (R) candidate didn't explain the virtues of the Trump tax bill.
Or maybe they did and the voters are either too "dumb" to get it
or
they recognize bull sheit when they see it

23 point win --
" like a ghost --- pfff it's gone"
- Keyser Souza
 
or maybe the piss poor candidate didn't convincingly articulate deregulation at EPA

I don't know?

or the effectiveness of having 2 Sec's of State and 3 NSA Directors in a year and a half
C'mon boys, pony up and help me

nah, they are just too "dumb"
to know what tikiboi's know
............

free stuff --- that's what it was ---- free stuff
 
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Dave Wasserman
‏Verified account @Redistrict

Breaking: Lesko leads 53%-47% in early ballots. #AZ08
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Tom Bonier
‏Verified account @tbonier
8m8 minutes ago

With the early votes tallied, Lesko (R) leads by 6%. I think it's likely Lesko wins, as there aren't many election day votes to count and they tend to not diverge much from the early vote. Keep in mind, Trump won this district by 21%.


Keep in mind, the GOP vote share among early voters exceeded the Dem vote share by 20%, yet Lesko carried the early vote by just under 6%. This isn't just a Dem surge, you are seeing GOP voters crossing over in droves. Likely not enough to win this Trump +21% CD though.
 
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AZ-08 comprises the oldest and golf-coursiest section of the Phoenix metro, fwiw.

To wit: I once stopped at a Fry's in Surprise (which is immediately adjacent to Sun City) at around 7:15am to buy gas and jugs of water, before heading out to Havasu City / the Mojave, and that **** was legit full; it was only a bit later, about ten minutes up Route 60, that I realized it was the first Wednesday of the month (10% discount day for 55+).
 
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Julio3000 said:
The hilarity of an Irish-American with a Spanish nickname runnng against a Cuban-American with an Anglo nickname is just too much.
Click to expand...

Flashes of Bernardo O'Higgins battling Ramón "Guy" Freire for the directorship of Chile.
 
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