The Big Three--What is the Reasonable Upside

[Enscheff]

No thank you. I think you at least wait longer than that. Acuna can play a corner OF spot, you don't have to trade him just because Acuna is a CF. If Acuna is ready and Inciarte is still giving you ~4 WAR, you'd have to get a significant corner OF in return for it to be worth it, and I doubt you could.

Just keep them both and prosper.

There will be a season within the next 2-3 years when Ender's defense starts to decline (dWAR under 1) and he ticks up with the bat to a ~.775 OPS. He will still post his normal 3-4 WAR overall, and the narrative will be "he is finally figuring it out offensively".

That is when I would trade him.

 

[CJ9]

There will be a season within the next 2-3 years when Ender's defense starts to decline (dWAR under 1) and he ticks up with the bat to a ~.775 OPS. He will still post his normal 3-4 WAR overall, and the narrative will be "he is finally figuring it out offensively".

That is when I would trade him.

This is more the timeline I was referring to. With defense usually being the first to decline, he's not really a player I see as a long-term piece with us. And I'd also like to have someone other than Freeman who we can comfortably project as a 20+ homer guy in our future.

 

[smootness]

There will be a season within the next 2-3 years when Ender's defense starts to decline (dWAR under 1) and he ticks up with the bat to a ~.775 OPS. He will still post his normal 3-4 WAR overall, and the narrative will be "he is finally figuring it out offensively".

That is when I would trade him.

I would be totally fine with that, so long as we get full value out of him. I'm just saying, don't trade him just because Acuna is ready.

 

[Enscheff]

I would be totally fine with that, so long as we get full value out of him. I'm just saying, don't trade him just because Acuna is ready.

From now until the end of time, let's go ahead and assume I will never suggest trading a guy for a fraction of his value just to make room for someone else. In fact, I will never suggest trading someone for a fraction of his value...ever.

Now that I think about it for 20 seconds, I don't think anyone on this board has ever suggested unloading a player at a fraction of his value to make room for another player.

I would rather trade Acuna for his full value than trade Inciarte for 75% of his value just to make room for Acuna. My opinion on team building remains consistent (maximizing overall value), which is why I hated the Mallex trade.

 

[smootness]

That wasn't in response to you. My initial post was in response to the suggestion that because we have 2 CFs who have shown potential in rookie and A ball, we should start looking to deal Ender since he has value and we don't have corner OFs in the pipeline.

If we're dealing Ender because it is the right time to deal him for value's sake, which is what you suggested, that's totally fine. If we're dealing Ender simply because he has value and we have more CF prospects than corner OF prospects, which is the way I understood CF9's post, that is not fine.

 

[CJ9]

That wasn't in response to you. My initial post was in response to the suggestion that because we have 2 CFs who have shown potential in rookie and A ball, we should start looking to deal Ender since he has value and we don't have corner OFs in the pipeline.

If we're dealing Ender because it is the right time to deal him for value's sake, which is what you suggested, that's totally fine. If we're dealing Ender simply because he has value and we have more CF prospects than corner OF prospects, which is the way I understood CF9's post, that is not fine.

No, I said in the next year or two. I don't think it's a stretch that Acuna could be ready at some point in 2018 with how aggressive this front office has been in the past. If that's the case and he's everything people seem to think he will be, I'd rather trade Inciarte for something we don't have -- a corner OF bat with power.

 

[bravesfanMatt]

One thing to note, is that Acuna might not stick in CF. He has the arm for all 3 positions, but read some reports that his routes are not great. He is also still growing and could have the bat for a corner spot.

 

[Horsehide Harry]

I think that you have two main categories of value and those two are sub-divided by a number of others:

1. Perceived current value:
* External perceived value
* Quality of play, perceived clubhouse presence, contract, etc.
* Internal perceived value
*See above, plus the "ticket selling" and "merchandise selling" factor
* Actual value
2. Projected value:
* External projected value
* future expected value applied to quality of play, etc.
* Internal projected value
* future expected value of above, plus external factors.
* Actual projected value

A player (or prospects) greatest trade value should be when his external perceived current value and his external projected value are at their highest (but those two values may not be aligned and certainly not from club to club). And those values can change from team to team and can be affected by team specific criteria such as home park or league effects.

Take Teheran for instance. The Red Sox apparently don't value him highly for current performance (possibly informed by their expectation of his ability to excel with new park effects and a new league) and don't project his value to increase in the future. That's not saying that they would pass on him even when they have a need. But, they don't really see him as an upgrade. But, another club may view him differently.The internal view of Teheran is definitely different than the external view of the RS.

 

[smootness]

No, I said in the next year or two. I don't think it's a stretch that Acuna could be ready at some point in 2018 with how aggressive this front office has been in the past. If that's the case and he's everything people seem to think he will be, I'd rather trade Inciarte for something we don't have -- a corner OF bat with power.

Yeah, but that's still exactly what I was saying we shouldn't do - trade Ender just because Acuna is ready.

Acuna can be a quality corner OF bat himself. There's no need to get rid of a very good player just because we feel like we have to put Acuna in CF. If a deal makes sense, and we get a legit young bat in return for Inciarte, sure. But I don't think the chances of that are great.

 

[Southcack77]

Hey look, the brilliant tax guy is back! Or rather he's the "lawyer" that isn't smart enough to handle court cases. Welcome back bud!

Your tax gig will be fully automated in a decade or two by my fellow software engineers, so hopefully you have your retirement plans in order.

You ever get the idea this dude has literally no one to talk to in real life?

No one cares that you are an employee at a company that makes video poker machines.

 

[GovClintonTyree]

You ever get the idea this dude has literally no one to talk to in real life?

No one cares that you are an employee at a company that makes video poker machines.

Important work, figuring out how to **** people. He's got the right level of contempt though. Maybe when the video poker thing goes under he can get a job with the Trump administration.