nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
Of course. It is a big step for you to argue more than one factor might affect something. A landmark of sorts dare I say.
The Coronavirus, not the beer
- Thread starter Runnin
- Start date
Of course. It is a big step for you to argue more than one factor might affect something. A landmark of sorts dare I say.
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
Speaking of things with multiple variables at work. If someone wanted to know if mask mandates have any effects they would look at situations where jurisdictions were otherwise similar but differed in mask mandates. For example, similar neighboring counties in Arizona where one had a mask mandate and the other two didn't. North and South Dakota last year. That's one way to try to tease out a statistical estimate. Look for situations where the other possible variables were pretty much the same.
I've also tried to explain to you some of the issues involved in statistical inference. For example very often when the fasten the seatbelt sign comes on a plane will hit some turbulence a few seconds later. Doesn't mean the seatbelt sign is causing the turbulence. But keep those graphs from IM coming. By all means.
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sturg33
I
You can compare similar situations, which I did on the last page.
Or you can observe the trend before. And after the mask mandate and see it quite literally does nothing to the trend. You'd think the mandated counties would see a slow in the rise, but they don't.
Bc as we know, masks are useless
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
I'll suggest an explanation. Governors and mayors make policy based on advice of public health officials. Those public health officials make an attempt to estimate how quickly the virus is spreading. It's reproductive rate. When it gets above a certain level, they offer advice with respect to mask mandates etc. Of course it takes a while to turn that ship around. Once the reproductive rate is at 2 or 3 it will be a few weeks or even months (even with masks and heightened social distancing) to get it down below 1, at which point cases start falling.
Throw in other variables like seasonality and new variants, and the kind of graphs from IM that you share with us multiple times each day don't really inform the discussion regarding the efficacy of masks. I understand you derive a certain pleasure out of posting them and I wouldn't want to deny you that pleasure. So go ahead and keep sharing them.
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tululush
New member
I still can’t believe thethe actually believes this. This is next level Q nonsense.
Lol @ the idea that China weaponized a virus to kill lord knows how many people around the world just so they could prevent Trump from being elected a second term.
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
Look at this month. A bunch of jurisdictions have re-imposed mask mandates. More school districts are saying they will go with them in the fall. They've been reacting to the data. Maybe sluggishly. And they are dismayed they have to do it again. But that is what has been happening this month. Infections rise. There is a policy response. Maybe it is not the one we would like to see. Maybe it is too slow. But it is a reaction to the rise in infections.
Tapate50
Well-known member
Oh boy
Remember the daily updates we used to get? Remember you and I said they were celebrating after the first inning?
zitothebrave
Connoisseur of Minors
Jaw
It's OVER 5,000!
Australia has surprised me the most during this. I know they have their quirks but I generally think of them as a free and sane people. Their governance has been frightening.
Tapate50
Well-known member
Of note, personal testimony (could be anecdotal fwiw) but if you take a covid test or admitted to the hospital no one is coming by asking if you had the vaccine or not. There's not a "census team" to collect data that I am aware of at any testing site or admittance point for the hospital.