The Coronavirus, not the beer

I just wanna state for the record, that outside of the context of thethe's delusions 20-30% of NYC having this is a staggeringly high number. Just astronomical spread. Like 1 in 4 people around me have had this? It's not that surprising based on the deaths, but to see the actual numbers is... wow.

Very interested in borough level data.
 
It is very sad. To think the US wouldn't have about double the amount of deaths without mitigation is also optmisitic.
 
One thing that remains to be seen: will the .8 IFR we have seen hold up elsewhere.

On the one hand NY hospitals were overwhelmed and very sick people were left to die at home.

On the other hand there are some world class hospitals in NY that probably provided a standard of care that wont be replicated elsewhere.

Some parts of the country also have older populations with a higher prevalence of hypertension and obesity.

My guess is the national IFR will end up slightly lower than .8.
 
nsacpi said:
One thing that remains to be seen: will the .8 IFR we have seen hold up elsewhere.

On the one hand NY hospitals were overwhelmed and very sick people were left to die at home.

On the other hand there are some world class hospitals in NY that probably provided a standard of care that wont be replicated elsewhere.

Some parts of the country also have older populations with a higher prevalence of hypertension and obesity.

My guess is the national IFR will end up slightly lower than .8.
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Possibly. Obesity, high blood pressure, dibetus, heart disease, etc. do tend to be more prevalent in the South. In rural areas, people having complications at home will find the response time to get to a hospital to be much slower than in NYC. A larger African American population in the south as well, which is crucial because the virus tends to be disproportionately more deadly among African Americans.
 
In a statement to Yahoo Finance, the company said the World Health Organization “prematurely posted information regarding the study, which has since been removed” and that it “included inappropriate characterizations of the study.”

Gilead added that there were “multiple ongoing Phase 3 studies that are designed to provide the additional data needed to determine the potential for remdesivir as a treatment for COVID-19. These studies will help inform whom to treat, when to treat and how long to treat with remdesivir.”
 
Not sure if this article has been posted earlier but if not here's a fascinating and disconcerting article:

Link

What's the major transmission mode?

How should what we are learning from SSEs inform our actions going forward?
 
sturg33 said:
In a statement to Yahoo Finance, the company said the World Health Organization “prematurely posted information regarding the study, which has since been removed” and that it “included inappropriate characterizations of the study.”

Gilead added that there were “multiple ongoing Phase 3 studies that are designed to provide the additional data needed to determine the potential for remdesivir as a treatment for COVID-19. These studies will help inform whom to treat, when to treat and how long to treat with remdesivir.”
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Lot of weird ass **** is going on right now.
 
BedellBrave said:
Not sure if this article has been posted earlier but if not here's a fascinating and disconcerting article:

Link

What's the major transmission mode?

How should what we are learning from SSEs inform our actions going forward?
Click to expand...

“Very few, if any… droplets are produced during quiet breathing, but [instead, they] are expelled during activities such as talking, coughing, blowing and sneezing.”

Singing too...as members of a choir in Washington state found out.

There has been some discussion of SSEs. I linked this paper earlier, which discusses several:

https://www.nber.org/papers/w27007.pdf

A single “Beer Pong” party where participants shared drink glasses at an
Austrian ski resort is credited with producing hundreds of infections in Denmark, Germany, and Norway (Hruby, 2020). A soccer game with record attendance may help to explain why Bergamo is an epicenter of the pandemic, perhaps exacerbated by the outcome of the game, as
fans hugged and kissed each time Atalanta (the team from Bergamo) scored. Atalanta won the game 4 to 1 (Azzoni and Dampf (2020)). A March 10th choir practice in Washington State with
60 attendees resulted in 45 infections and two deaths.
 
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BedellBrave said:
Not sure if this article has been posted earlier but if not here's a fascinating and disconcerting article:

Link

What's the major transmission mode?

How should what we are learning from SSEs inform our actions going forward?
Click to expand...

I have an anecdote (not really a dirty word) to share in this regard. My wife has been teaching some friends how to play mahjong. Their last get together was in early March. Not long after one of the attendees texted everyone else that she had gotten sick and tested positive for COVID. Mahjong players tend to be very social with lots of talking and laughing, and they also had some snacks and wine.

And they touch the tiles.

So many possible transmission paths.

Anyhow 3 of the 4 players ending up positive. So likely 1 infected 2.

But not the teacher (my wife). As she explains it she mostly stands behind the players so she can see their hands and give them some coaching. And she did not touch the tiles as much.
 
I've become more and more convinced the IHME model is going to underpredict the number of deaths in the right-hand side of the curve (post peak). They are aware of this issue and have been incorporating some fixes.

But I think the model's fundamental problem in this regard is reliance on what happened in Wuhan after the peak. The kind of isolation and restrictions practices in Wuhan was much stricter than it has been here. And we're going to find that the right hand side of the curve here is going to look quite a bit different.
 
nsacpi said:
I've become more and more convinced the IHME model is going to underpredict the number of deaths in the right-hand side of the curve (post peak). They are aware of this issue and have been incorporating some fixes.

But I think the model's fundamental problem in this regard is reliance on what happened in Wuhan after the peak. The kind of isolation and restrictions practices in Wuhan was much stricter than it has been here. And we're going to find that the right hand side of the curve here is going to look quite a bit different.
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We have no clue what the wuhan death total is. It's very possible that lockdowns extended infection peak.
 
nsacpi said:
I have an anecdote (not really a dirty word) to share in this regard. My wife has been teaching some friends how to play mahjong. Their last get together was in early March. Not long after one of the attendees texted everyone else that she had gotten sick and tested positive for COVID. Mahjong players tend to be very social with lots of talking and laughing, and they also had some snacks and wine.

And they touch the tiles.

So many possible transmission paths.

Anyhow 3 of the 4 players ending up positive. So likely 1 infected 2.

But not the teacher (my wife). As she explains it she mostly stands behind the players so she can see their hands and give them some coaching. And she did not touch the tiles as much.
Click to expand...


I'm a pastor and so you can imagine all the things I'm having to work through. Not being able to visit members in nursing homes who have tested positive, not being able to go into hospitals, dealing with members all over the political map, planning, and then revising again and again how we keep trying to stay connected and helping one another and the community out the best we can, helping our number who are losing jobs, etc. Thankfully, I've got an unified group of leaders in our congregation, who took this very seriously early on (thanks in part to a guy who works fairly high up in a global accounting firm seeing what businesses were about to do -- lose tons of money -- due to how seriously they were taking things in February) and we take our need to submit to the lawful requests/restrictions of the civil magistrate very seriously.
 
Bedell, are y'all doing zoom services or anything like that? I imagine the practicality of that varies widely from congregation to congregation.
 
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