The Coronavirus, not the beer
- Thread starter Runnin
- Start date
zitothebrave
Connoisseur of Minors
You are ****ing dense. WE know that being asymtematic is a problem. It's why this virus is scary. Someone could have the virus and pass it along to someone who's at risk.
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
A few big numbers for you to wrap your minds around:
$500 billion...that would be Paul Romer's (2018 Economics Nobelist) estimate of economic losses per month from the health and economic crises due to COVID-19...multiply by 12 and you get $6 trillion over a full year (United States GDP was a little over $21 trillion in 2019).
$10,000,000...that would be something called VSA (the value of statistical life)...determined from what people are willing to pay to reduce the risk of dying...apply whatever discount you want for the old and sick
$10 trillion...what you get if you multiply $10 million VSA by 1 million lives saved
worst case scenario...we continue our current shambolic path with some states doing this and some states doing that and end up with 1 million deaths that could be avoided over the next 12 months AND $6 trillion in lost economic activity and income
best case scenario...we spend $100 billion on greatly expanding testing and tracing...we identify who is infectious and quarantine them...let everyone else go back to work and school...keep testing everyone every two weeks until we get a vaccine or herd immunity kicks in...save 1 million from dying and stop the economic losses
$500 billion...that would be Paul Romer's (2018 Economics Nobelist) estimate of economic losses per month from the health and economic crises due to COVID-19...multiply by 12 and you get $6 trillion over a full year (United States GDP was a little over $21 trillion in 2019).
$10,000,000...that would be something called VSA (the value of statistical life)...determined from what people are willing to pay to reduce the risk of dying...apply whatever discount you want for the old and sick
$10 trillion...what you get if you multiply $10 million VSA by 1 million lives saved
worst case scenario...we continue our current shambolic path with some states doing this and some states doing that and end up with 1 million deaths that could be avoided over the next 12 months AND $6 trillion in lost economic activity and income
best case scenario...we spend $100 billion on greatly expanding testing and tracing...we identify who is infectious and quarantine them...let everyone else go back to work and school...keep testing everyone every two weeks until we get a vaccine or herd immunity kicks in...save 1 million from dying and stop the economic losses
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nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
It is a no brainer what we should be doing. We can quibble about details but the broad contours are clear.
From the concluding paragraphs of Romer's plan:
We are at a point now where we must choose between fighting
this virus with all of America’s resources, intellect, and will, or surrendering because an answer we can have confidence in feels too hard to execute. Yes, the numbers are large, but the case
for mass testing is strong from economic, ethical, and public health standpoints. It is without a doubt the best option right now with the resources we have and the challenges we are facing.
By expanding the pool of testing capacity, providing government funding to states to execute, implementing a wide-scale testing program starting with healthcare workers, and supporting those in isolation as the rest of the workforce resumes activity, we can truly and finally start to
recover from this pandemic.
Of course, we need more than private- and public-sector discussions on a plan to address the health and economic crises from which we suffer. We need courage, creativity, and bold leadership from our elected leaders and we need it now.
https://roadmap.paulromer.net/paulromer-roadmap-report.pdf
I bolded the word ethical because economists don't often use it, and it has been strangely missing from the discussion about what to do. But Romer is absolutely right. To give up, or to continue on our current disorganized path is something we will look back upon with great shame if it turns out to be the course we choose or stumble onto.
From the concluding paragraphs of Romer's plan:
We are at a point now where we must choose between fighting
this virus with all of America’s resources, intellect, and will, or surrendering because an answer we can have confidence in feels too hard to execute. Yes, the numbers are large, but the case
for mass testing is strong from economic, ethical, and public health standpoints. It is without a doubt the best option right now with the resources we have and the challenges we are facing.
By expanding the pool of testing capacity, providing government funding to states to execute, implementing a wide-scale testing program starting with healthcare workers, and supporting those in isolation as the rest of the workforce resumes activity, we can truly and finally start to
recover from this pandemic.
Of course, we need more than private- and public-sector discussions on a plan to address the health and economic crises from which we suffer. We need courage, creativity, and bold leadership from our elected leaders and we need it now.
https://roadmap.paulromer.net/paulromer-roadmap-report.pdf
I bolded the word ethical because economists don't often use it, and it has been strangely missing from the discussion about what to do. But Romer is absolutely right. To give up, or to continue on our current disorganized path is something we will look back upon with great shame if it turns out to be the course we choose or stumble onto.
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It's actually a good sign. Just means you get to herd immunity faster. Deaths are a function of how poorly we took care of the at risk.
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
It has been a source of amusement taking a look at the first hundred pages of this thread. We've all been wrong about some things. But not all equally wrong.
It has been an interesting "folk history" of our times and how a small group of people thought about it.
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goldfly
<B>if my thought dreams could be seen</B>
lol
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
Deaths per million by country (number in parentheses in deaths per million in the past week)
Italy 437 (49)
Spain 493 (50)
Germany 71 (15)
UK 309 (70)
France 352 (48)
Holland 263 (43)
Belgium 645 (115)
Sweden 219 (61)
Denmark 73 (10)
FINLAND 35 (16)
United States 168 (42)
Canada 69 (26)
Awful: Belgium
Bad: Italy, Spain, UK, France
Middle: United States, Sweden, Holland
Good: Germany, Canada, Denmark, FINLAND
If you look at just the past week, the UK and Sweden look worrisome.
As for Belgium I have no doubt they have been hit very hard. But they have had the most liberal definition of who counts as a COVID-19 related death. They are including everyone suspected of being infected, whether or not they have been tested.
At some point we'll get the excess mortality data and be able to evaluate the numbers on a common basis.
Italy 437 (49)
Spain 493 (50)
Germany 71 (15)
UK 309 (70)
France 352 (48)
Holland 263 (43)
Belgium 645 (115)
Sweden 219 (61)
Denmark 73 (10)
FINLAND 35 (16)
United States 168 (42)
Canada 69 (26)
Awful: Belgium
Bad: Italy, Spain, UK, France
Middle: United States, Sweden, Holland
Good: Germany, Canada, Denmark, FINLAND
If you look at just the past week, the UK and Sweden look worrisome.
As for Belgium I have no doubt they have been hit very hard. But they have had the most liberal definition of who counts as a COVID-19 related death. They are including everyone suspected of being infected, whether or not they have been tested.
At some point we'll get the excess mortality data and be able to evaluate the numbers on a common basis.
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Goalpost moving has been amusing once the apocalypse of the hospitalization fell flat.
And for their sake it had to change because their idiot models crashed the economy for no reason.
Did you even read the article?
Ask FactCheck reporter Angelo Fichera, who interviewed Jensen, noted, "Jensen said he did not think that hospitals were intentionally misclassifying cases for financial reasons. But that’s how his comments have been widely interpreted and paraded on social media."
Ask FactCheck's conclusion: "Recent legislation pays hospitals higher Medicare rates for COVID-19 patients and treatment, but there is no evidence of fraudulent reporting."
Julie Aultman, a member of the editorial board of the American Medical Association’s Journal of Ethics, told PolitiFact it is “very unlikely that physicians or hospitals will falsify data or be motivated by money to do so.”
No evidence. Sure thing. Pennsylvania got caught over inflating. We incentized the behavior
Oklahomahawk
Boras' Client
OK, so hopefully a fair question, if the DoD knew there was a real threat of a virus like unto the Corona back in 2017 and warned both the President and Congress, which they said they did, why wasn't something done about it back then? Isn't it their job to protect us from all enemies, not just the big bad CCP?