Total deaths in seven states that have been hard hit by the coronavirus pandemic are nearly 50 percent higher than normal for the five weeks from March 8 through April 11, according to new death statistics from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. That is 9,000 more deaths than were reported as of April 11 in official counts of deaths from the coronavirus.
The new data is partial and most likely undercounts the recent death toll significantly. But it still illustrates how the coronavirus is causing a surge in deaths in the places it has struck, probably killing more people than the reported statistics capture. These increases belie arguments that the virus is only killing people who would have died anyway from other causes. Instead, the virus has brought a pattern of deaths unlike anything seen in recent years.
In New York City, the home of the biggest outbreak, the number of deaths over this period is more than three times the normal number. (Recent data suggests it could have reached six times higher than normal.)
It’s difficult to know whether the differences between excess deaths and the official counts of coronavirus deaths reflect an undercounting of coronavirus deaths or a surge in deaths from other causes. It’s probably a mix of both.
There is also increasing evidence that stresses on the health care system and fears about catching the disease have caused some Americans to die from ailments that are typically treatable. A recent draft paper found that hospital admissions for a major type of heart attack fell by 38 percent in nine major U.S. hospitals in March. In a normal year, cardiovascular disease is the country’s leading cause of death.
Some causes of death may actually be going down. There appear to be fewer road fatalities in California, as more U.S. residents stay at home, for example. It is possible that those reductions could cancel out coronavirus deaths in places where the virus is not yet widespread. But, in many states, any such reductions have been clearly outweighed by increases in deaths directly and indirectly related to the virus.
Demographers often use measures of total deaths, sometimes called all-cause mortality, to evaluate the effects of natural disasters, where it can be difficult to trace particular causes.
In Puerto Rico in 2017, only 64 deaths were initially attributed to Hurricane Maria. But an analysis of the additional deaths showed the way that the disaster had, directly and indirectly, led to nearly 3,000 deaths over six months. The total included the immediate deaths from mudslides and drownings, but also sepsis, diabetes and suicides that came later as the power failure stretched on for months.
Around the world, the coronavirus is bringing large waves of mortality. In Spain, deaths over the last month are 66 percent higher than normal, according to New York Times reporting. In Ecuador, they are more than 80 percent higher than normal. In Paris, more than twice as many people are dying every day as normal — far more than during a typical bad flu season.
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