The Coronavirus, not the beer

Meta - what do you think to yourself on this issue knowing that you were dead wrong and a dumb/uncivilized/maga supporting person was right?

All that education and you can't think. You should request a refund.
 
I watched a 9th inning replay of a Braves 2018 game --- down 5 in 9th to Marlins and Dansby had a walk off single
Reminded me, we still have a lot of game left in this pandemic
Just sayin'
 
57Brave said:
I watched a 9th inning replay of a Braves 2018 game --- down 5 in 9th to Marlins and Dansby had a walk off single
Reminded me, we still have a lot of game left in this pandemic
Just sayin'
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Yeah - The countries/states that embraced a lockdown have a low uninfected population percentage relative to their population density.

It will catch up to them in the fall while places like Sweden mostly likely won't have a second wave
 
sturg33 said:
Wht is New York still closed?

Can the party of science start using data and evidence to make decisions?
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They stopped caring about the data once it showed this wasn't as bad as feared.

Its been clear since the end of March but it became a Trump adjacent issue.
 
This thread is definitely going dark

Too much positive news.

What a damn shame you guys were hoping for death.
 
thethe said:
Yeah - The countries/states that embraced a lockdown have a low uninfected population percentage relative to their population density.

It will catch up to them in the fall while places like Sweden mostly likely won't have a second wave
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Sweden seroprevalence 5%
 
To go through the by now familiar math.

Sweden population 10 million.

Seroprevalence rate late April 5%.

People infected late April 500,000.

Official COVID deaths at the end of April: 2,700.

Excess mortality data suggests it needs to be adjusted up by about a third. This gets you to 3,600 COVID deaths by end of April.

Gives you an IFR of 3,600 divided by 500,000 or 0.7%.

Which jives with what we see elsewhere.
 
nsacpi said:
To go through the by now familiar math.

Sweden population 10 million.

Seroprevalence rate late April 5%.

People infected late April 500,000.

Official COVID deaths at the end of April: 2,700.

Excess mortality data suggests it needs to be adjusted up by about a third. This gets you to 3,600 COVID deaths by end of April.

Gives you an IFR of 3,600 divided by 500,000 or 0.7%.

Which jives with what we see elsewhere.
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Man - Still using the wrong assumption on infection rate as of that day based on antibody testing.

Why?
 
I do expect the IFR to tick down (in Sweden and elsewhere) going forward. Doctors are learning. Nursing homes are learning. Governments are learning. Best practices are improving. But I don't think it goes from .7 to .01. It will move from .7% in the first half of this year to around .5% in the second half.
 
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thethe said:
Man - Still using the wrong assumption on infection rate as of that day based on antibody testing.

Why?
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I'm assuming a cumulative infection rate from the seroprevalence rate. You can play with the lags some if you want. Lags are a thing. But they don't get you out of the reality that in Sweden and pretty much everywhere else there are a yuge number of people yet to be infected.
 
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