nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
Do you have a proposed discount factor for those deaths?
The Coronavirus, not the beer
- Thread starter Runnin
- Start date
Do you have a proposed discount factor for those deaths?
It should if they are being honest.
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
What do you think the discount factor should be.
sturg33
I
I'm not suggesting their lives are worth less... but that our policies were not the correct approach to protect the most vulnerable.
And yet, many (D) states continue to double down.
Why?
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
I think we do need to take these things into account. It is not a fun topic.
I've run through the numbers in various posts. $500 billion per month in economic losses. The value of lives saved likely in the trillions, with and without a discount factor for the old and sick. The numbers are unfathomable. That's why I think we should be looking very hard for policies/solutions that allow us to get out of having to make those choices.
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sturg33
I
You're assuming the policies actually reduced deaths and there is zero evidence to support that. If that were the case, we'd be seeing huge spikes in deaths today that is simply not happening.
Here's a nice little article on the stupidity of the Governor Blackfaces power grab
https://www.targetliberty.com/2020/05/what-do-lies-look-like-in-virginia-media.html?m=1
The discount factor is irrelevant.
We are basing our decisions on a terrible death count when all the measures being implemented would not have impacted those deaths. It was an awful policy that thankfully has now stopped.
In reality what we are drastically changing society for is a virus that has killed 30-40k in 2 months.
Not a big deal in the grand scheme of things.
Want to stop massive concerts and other live events for 6-12 months? Fine...I guess.
But other than that none of this is really worth it.
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It wasn't really hard to know the death rate would be somewhere in the .1-.25% range
Back out the mis-codings and remove the terrible nursing home policy and its very close to .1%
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
It will take a while to be able to have some precision on lives saved due to various policies. It is a difficult thing to do because in many cases official policies and spontaneous changes in behavior happened at about the same time. But I wouldn't say there is zero evidence. Consider the evidence summarized in the tweet below.
[tw]1264481222312390656[/tw]
There is not enough evidence to suggest this is causation or correlation.
No situation was like NY.
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
It is not the strongest evidence. Because it attempts to reduce what is a very complicated situation to one variable differing in two places. My point, however, is it is not accurate to assert there is no evidence that lockdowns/closing non-essential businesses have not saved lives. They have, but we do not yet have a precise answer of how many. Certainly the comparison of Sweden with its Scandinavian neighbors hints that the number of lives saved might be significant.
We saw before states started reopening that R naught was falling. Since then they have largely stabilized.
So "combination of official policies" plus "spontaneous action"=falling R naught.
"Spontaneous action" = stabilized R naught.
The last graph on the AJC's COVID-19 dashboard illustrates the point for Georgia. Take a look:
https://www.ajc.com/news/coronavirus-georgia-covid-dashboard/jvoLBozRtBSVSNQDDAuZxH/
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THe only way it saves lives is the assumption a treatment or vaccine will be available. Eventually people have to go outside again and live their lives.
Based on what we have seen for similar viruses I would not hold my breath.
What we do know is that the lockdowns have caused increase in drug abuse/suicide/depression/domestic violence/etc.. that otherwise would not have happened if lockdowns didn't take place.
Do you know how many tests have been issued in those areas the last 10 days?
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
I'll also mention that to estimate lives saved (or not saved) due to policy changes requires a model (yes a dirty word I know).
Consider the case of Georgia. According to one model (which seems to have a better track record than most) Georgia will have 4,700 deaths by August 1.
https://covid19-projections.com/us-ga
The same model can be run assuming no reopening by Georgia. In that scenario the model projects 3,100 deaths.
https://covid19-projections.com/us-ga-noreopen
So reopening results in 800 extra deaths per month over the next couple months.
The model could be wrong in estimating a difference between the two scenarios. But so could the assertion that there is no effect from reopening.
Consider the case of Georgia. According to one model (which seems to have a better track record than most) Georgia will have 4,700 deaths by August 1.
https://covid19-projections.com/us-ga
The same model can be run assuming no reopening by Georgia. In that scenario the model projects 3,100 deaths.
https://covid19-projections.com/us-ga-noreopen
So reopening results in 800 extra deaths per month over the next couple months.
The model could be wrong in estimating a difference between the two scenarios. But so could the assertion that there is no effect from reopening.
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nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
It is a truism that we all die. So it is literally the case that all policy choices will result in the same number of deaths.
But that's not a very helpful way of looking at the situation. Even if a vaccine is not found before herd immunity is developed, delaying death has value. Of course if a vaccine is developed sometime over the next year, delaying death will have turned out to be a very good gamble.
Very debateable based on the average age of those impacted by lockdowns versus the average age of the peolle whose lives would be extended with a vaccine.
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
Yikes. I had noticed that Chattanooga had made the list of new hotspots. If people take it seriously it can be brought under control. I live in Westchester County, one of the first hotspots in NY. I hope you will take some inspiration from what Westchester County has done (see below).
https://covid19-projections.com/us-ny-westchester
In a county with a population of almost a million, number of infections is now estimated at less than 400 from a peak of almost 5,000 on March 20. Si se puede!
Immunity walls