Valid point.
The Coronavirus, not the beer
- Thread starter Runnin
- Start date
Valid point.
Your issue is you don't think we have been exposed to the virus all that long. Its really not all that hard to fathom that its been around for many months and based on the Ro rates that a much larger percentage of the population has been exposed and never required a hospital visit. You are looking at a subset of the data and drawing conclusions that impact every persons life in the world and for a longer period of time then this virus. So while you think its pro Maga stuff (or whatever the hell that means) its based on an understanding of how many seed infections there were from China from November to January and then using an assumed infection rate from that period. That is your true denominator and it tells a much different story about the massive implications of the virus.
chop2chip
Well-known member
I would like to see more discussion on how to help emerging countries. They simply do not have the healthcare or technological capacity to cope with this disease. For those countries, it seems like the only real way to manage is a vaccine and that’s obviously months away.
We are going to start seeing some unimaginable, depressing stories soon. I just don’t know how you protect those workers.
We are going to start seeing some unimaginable, depressing stories soon. I just don’t know how you protect those workers.
The dangerous part of that is we know so little about COVID-19 and the chance of a 2nd infection. While it's likely that you will build up an immunity to it (like most other viruses), we can't say that for sure at this time.
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
It is going to be very bad for them both from a humanitarian and economic perspective. I linked an article yesterday from the WSJ discussing all the cancelled orders that factories in Bangladesh and elsewhere were having to deal with.
https://news.yahoo.com/oxford-study-suggests-millions-people-221100162.html
The Oxford research suggests the pandemic is in a later stage than previously thought and estimates the virus has already infected at least millions of people worldwide. In the United Kingdom, which the study focuses on, half the population would have already been infected. If accurate, that would mean transmission began around mid-January and the vast majority of cases presented mild or no symptoms.
The Oxford research suggests the pandemic is in a later stage than previously thought and estimates the virus has already infected at least millions of people worldwide. In the United Kingdom, which the study focuses on, half the population would have already been infected. If accurate, that would mean transmission began around mid-January and the vast majority of cases presented mild or no symptoms.
Metaphysicist
Not Actually Brian Hunter
"Actually, what if we've all been sick for months" is not science or math, it is just you making stuff up. It's a stupid argument that makes it clear you have no idea what you are talking about. Just absolute ****ing lunacy.
How many people died of COVID in NY 1 month ago today? Zero. The first death in NY was March 14. How many people died of COVID in NY yesterday = 100+. The number of deaths has been doubling every 2 days. It is just facile to suggest that what is happening now could have been happening since December. I mean just look at this log graph:
I just don't know how you could argue with a straight-face that it has been saturating the state for months. You really think that in the 3-4 months before March 14, we were all being completely exposed, but then in celebration of the Ides of March it magically started killing people at an exponential rate? That makes negative sense. It's a ****ing stupid thing to think, unless you think the incubation period is like 3 months (which would mean we are really and truly ****ed).
It is certainly possible that there were specific individuals that had exposure months ago. That has nothing to do with the widespread pandemic effects currently happening.
chop2chip
Well-known member
What we do know is the virus does not mutate which means vaccines and antibodies will be extremely effective.
But you are right. We won’t know until we see a full seasonal cycle.
"Actually, what if we've all been sick for months" is not science or math, it is just you making stuff up. It's a stupid argument that makes it clear you have no idea what you are talking about. Just absolute ****ing lunacy.
How many people died of COVID in NY 1 month ago today? Zero. The first death in NY was March 14. How many people died of COVID in NY yesterday = 100+. The number of deaths has been doubling every 2 days. It is just facile to suggest that what is happening now could have been happening since December. I mean just look at this log graph:
I just don't know how you could argue with a straight-face that it has been saturating the state for months. You really think that in the 3-4 months before March 14, we were all being completely exposed, but then in celebration of the Ides of March it magically started killing people at an exponential rate? That makes negative sense. It's a ****ing stupid thing to think, unless you think the incubation period is like 3 months (which would mean we are really and truly ****ed).
It is certainly possible that there were specific individuals that had exposure months ago. That has nothing to do with the widespread pandemic effects currently happening.
Of all the people that died from the 'flu' the past 3 months. How many were tested for the corona virus?
When you understand that point I think it should become more clear to you.
If you haven't heard we were having an especially bad flu season thus far.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/08/health/flu-season-severity.html
As of the last week of December, “widespread” flu activity was reported by health departments in 46 states. More ominously, a second measure — the percentage of patients with flu symptoms visiting medical clinics — shot up almost to the peak reached at the height of the 2017-18 flu season, which was the most severe in a decade.
______________________________________________________________
So when you are ready to apologize I'll be right here.
As of the last week of December, “widespread” flu activity was reported by health departments in 46 states. More ominously, a second measure — the percentage of patients with flu symptoms visiting medical clinics — shot up almost to the peak reached at the height of the 2017-18 flu season, which was the most severe in a decade.
______________________________________________________________
So when you are ready to apologize I'll be right here.
Trump has gotten a bump in his approval of the handling of this.
We'll see how long this honeymoon lasts. Bush's approval rating skyrocketed to 90% after 9/11 and then it went down and down and down.
We'll see how long this honeymoon lasts. Bush's approval rating skyrocketed to 90% after 9/11 and then it went down and down and down.
Just wait till we go back to work and we all realize that we were at the near top of the curve already.
Markets will roar back and real changes to the supply change can happen .
Second term almost assured and he will have a public push to control the borders more.
From the same article becuase I'm trying to multi task here (even better tidbits)
This year’s flu vaccine may not be particularly effective against the strain of the virus now widespread in the United States, experts said. But even so, it’s worth getting the shot: people who are vaccinated fare better if struck by the flu than those who are not.
Why would the flu vaccine not be working effectively against this strain? Hmm I wonder if its because its the corona virus
The current season did begin unusually early. By late November, the flu had hit hard in the Deep South, from Texas to Georgia. The virus then broke out in California and the Rocky Mountain states, but was not widespread in the Northeast until recently.
The flu season hit early at a time period that is believed to be when it started in Wuhan? THats an interesting point that deserves more discussion.
Metaphysicist
Not Actually Brian Hunter
You know they can test for the flu, right? It's not just a mystery label. The reports of a "bad flu season" are based on actual lab-confirmations. From late February:
https://www.governor.ny.gov/news/go...mber-flu-cases-new-york-even-number-flu-cases
I think it is absolutely possible that some people died before March 14 of COVID. I think it is lunacy to suggest that the 100+ and doubling every 2 day number of deaths have been happening since December.
Metaphysicist
Not Actually Brian Hunter
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
In several hours on Tuesday, Dr. Ashley Bray performed chest compressions at Elmhurst Hospital Center on a woman in her 80s, a man in his 60s and a 38-year-old who reminded the doctor of her fiancé. All had tested positive for the coronavirus and had gone into cardiac arrest. All eventually died.
Elmhurst, a 545-bed public hospital in Queens, has begun transferring patients not suffering from coronavirus to other hospitals as it moves toward becoming dedicated entirely to the outbreak. Doctors and nurses have struggled to make do with a few dozen ventilators. Calls over a loudspeaker of “Team 700,” the code for when a patient is on the verge of death, come several times a shift. Some have died inside the emergency room while waiting for a bed.
A refrigerated truck has been stationed outside to hold the bodies of the dead. Over the past 24 hours, New York City’s public hospital system said in a statement, 13 people at Elmhurst had died.
“It’s apocalyptic,” said Dr. Bray, 27, a general medicine resident at the hospital.
All of the more than 1,800 intensive care beds in the city are expected to be full by Friday, according to a Federal Emergency Management Agency briefing obtained by The New York Times. Patients could stay for weeks, limiting space for newly sickened people.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/25/...tion=click&module=Top Stories&pgtype=Homepage
Elmhurst, a 545-bed public hospital in Queens, has begun transferring patients not suffering from coronavirus to other hospitals as it moves toward becoming dedicated entirely to the outbreak. Doctors and nurses have struggled to make do with a few dozen ventilators. Calls over a loudspeaker of “Team 700,” the code for when a patient is on the verge of death, come several times a shift. Some have died inside the emergency room while waiting for a bed.
A refrigerated truck has been stationed outside to hold the bodies of the dead. Over the past 24 hours, New York City’s public hospital system said in a statement, 13 people at Elmhurst had died.
“It’s apocalyptic,” said Dr. Bray, 27, a general medicine resident at the hospital.
All of the more than 1,800 intensive care beds in the city are expected to be full by Friday, according to a Federal Emergency Management Agency briefing obtained by The New York Times. Patients could stay for weeks, limiting space for newly sickened people.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/25/...tion=click&module=Top Stories&pgtype=Homepage
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So no infections in your world got here in November? Is that what you're actually trying to say with a straight face?
How many planes came from china during that time frame?
Jesus you are being dense here but I guess it's easier to just insult when you know you're wrong.
Metaphysicist
Not Actually Brian Hunter
March 14th, 1 person died from COVID-19. You legitimately think there were ~99 other people around New York who died from untested Flu that day, but just no one thought to test them for COVID?