Metaphysicist
Not Actually Brian Hunter
Those numbers don't look anything like what we've seen in NY.
The Coronavirus, not the beer
- Thread starter Runnin
- Start date
Those numbers don't look anything like what we've seen in NY.
Metaphysicist
Not Actually Brian Hunter
Dude, obviously everyone agrees that if we find a cure or whatever the death rate will be lower. If that is really all you have been trying to say the you have wasted an unbelievable amount of time doing bad math instead of just saying that.
Our hopsital system is better.
Our population is not as vulnerable as Italy.
We stoppped the flow of new seed infections on January 31sst.
On Monday, Trump speculated both at the presser and through tweets that he wanted to lift social distancing guidelines this coming Monday. It was stupid for him to speculate that then. Now today, he says he's THINKING about a forced quarantine.
Good lord, people still defend this piece of ****. It's just so bad to speculate on this big impactful decisions. Makes everyone confused, leads to panic, and like nscapi said, is only going to make some people evacuate and possibly spread it outside of the NYC metro area.
I have no idea why he continues to just throw **** out there just to get people talking about it, then doesn't understand the consequences of what he does. And then thethe and sturg will continue to defend him anyways.
Good lord, people still defend this piece of ****. It's just so bad to speculate on this big impactful decisions. Makes everyone confused, leads to panic, and like nscapi said, is only going to make some people evacuate and possibly spread it outside of the NYC metro area.
I have no idea why he continues to just throw **** out there just to get people talking about it, then doesn't understand the consequences of what he does. And then thethe and sturg will continue to defend him anyways.
No, the math was actually always right (despite some silly errors that were easily correctabe). I tried to model something out in 5 minutes for you. I just happen to be very good with excel and could do it. I made a boo boo. Clearly I don't know 'math'. What was I thinking?
All of these projections are with no human interaction so obviously a quarantine done 2-3 weeks prior to todays date changes the dynamics of the end results. Another indicator that you lack the basic understanding of how to comment on this topic.
It was always the release of areas based on the data.
But its ok - Sensationalize away!
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
For a sense of the human and organizational failings in the U.S. response.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/28/...action=click&module=Spotlight&pgtype=Homepage
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/28/...action=click&module=Spotlight&pgtype=Homepage
https://www.vox.com/policy-and-poli...-stimulus-trump-inspector-general-wont-comply
The special inspector general, as authorized within the bill, would be able to request information from government agencies and report on failures to comply with those information requests. In his signing statement, Trump essentially stated that he will not let such reports reach Congress without his approval, which many fear directly undermines the provision’s goal of maintaining transparency in how that fund is handled.
The $500 billion loan program was the biggest point of contention between Democratic and Republican lawmakers throughout the relief bill’s negotiation process. Democrats called this a “slush fund” that would give Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin broad authority to disburse the funds as he saw fit. The IG provision was intended as an accountability effort to alert Congress if the Trump administration was not complying with auditing measures. It was also meant to help ensure the president and his family did not directly benefit from the emergency funds through their businesses.
The special inspector general, as authorized within the bill, would be able to request information from government agencies and report on failures to comply with those information requests. In his signing statement, Trump essentially stated that he will not let such reports reach Congress without his approval, which many fear directly undermines the provision’s goal of maintaining transparency in how that fund is handled.
The $500 billion loan program was the biggest point of contention between Democratic and Republican lawmakers throughout the relief bill’s negotiation process. Democrats called this a “slush fund” that would give Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin broad authority to disburse the funds as he saw fit. The IG provision was intended as an accountability effort to alert Congress if the Trump administration was not complying with auditing measures. It was also meant to help ensure the president and his family did not directly benefit from the emergency funds through their businesses.
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
chosen one is going to need Congress to pass some additional measures in the next few months. Methinks he will come around on this issue.
Gotta lift those chains off Wyoming and Montana!
Because everyone knows that's what the data supports and what he implied when he said we need to get America Back to Work when he mentioned lifting social distancing guidelines.
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
[tw]1244018258023497728[/tw]
this is not helpful...but it is what happens when chosen one blindsides governors with impulsive ideas...at a minimum the idea of a quarantine should have been discussed with the governors of the affected states before being put out in a tweet
a quarantine of NY City and some of the surrounding suburbs is not a bad idea though a little late...but you can't have it put out like that in a tweet as something that might happen or might not...that's a very costly mistake...tomorrow those flights to miami might be a bit more full
this is not helpful...but it is what happens when chosen one blindsides governors with impulsive ideas...at a minimum the idea of a quarantine should have been discussed with the governors of the affected states before being put out in a tweet
a quarantine of NY City and some of the surrounding suburbs is not a bad idea though a little late...but you can't have it put out like that in a tweet as something that might happen or might not...that's a very costly mistake...tomorrow those flights to miami might be a bit more full
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Runnin
Well-known member
https://www.visualcapitalist.com/global-pandemic-preparedness-ranked/
Six months ago the U.S. was more prepared than any country in the world to handle a pandemic, according to the WHO. What happened? I'll give you one guess.
Six months ago the U.S. was more prepared than any country in the world to handle a pandemic, according to the WHO. What happened? I'll give you one guess.
Hahahaha...the WHO. As if they have any value anymore.
acesfull86
Well-known member
OTOH, he was ahead of his time several weeks back when he snubbed Pelosi’s handshake
Metaphysicist
Not Actually Brian Hunter
Completely non-responsive. The point is the curve you've described doesn't fit NY, since it requires a slow build and triple digit deaths before 3/14, the date of the first official death. The idea that by the second week of March, when my NYC school had already cancelled classes, when US testing was already up to the 1000s per day, NY was already losing dozens of patients a week to COVID and not noticing is literally incredible. And it doesn't explain the huge boom in deaths since 3/14. Here's my best attempt to compare your model vs. real life (wow look at my leet excel skills); I've assumed a ~3 week lag time on deaths to line up the two curves (obviously we are not at 8k yet):
What I've asked for: how could it possibility be true that COVID has been around and spreading in NY since 10/15, but we see the daily deaths spike from 0* - 100+ since 3/14? I can't envision a curve that does that. Unless we were missing literally hundreds of deaths per week until just a few days ago, which is again, literally unbelievable. It just literally does not make sense to me what you are saying.
And how does the date of the first infection change the peak of that curve, which is what you originally claimed to be doing? The example you gave has no natural peak, and you haven't explained why distancing affects curves that started earlier differently.
*Or, very close, assuming some were missed, which I will grant you is surely possible.
Metaphysicist
Not Actually Brian Hunter
No I'm not. You didn't even read what I wrote.
The curve that I constructed is a basic curve that doesnt takeninto account many factors. The deaths are lagging numbers from the infections so technically thendeathsbi quoted occurred 2 weeks later. Then you van consider how many seed infections were here and raise the factor. Then you can layer on when social distancing occurred and blunted the spread.
The whole point was to prove that the growth is drastic with a seed infection from october/November and that was proven.
The whole point was to prove that the growth is drastic with a seed infection from october/November and that was proven.
You are stating the the curves are significantly different because the first official death from the virus was from march. We just disagree with that point and it's not as if I'm the only person who believes this.
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
He knew about the pandemic before anyone else