The Coronavirus, not the beer

thethe said:
You are stating the the curves are significantly different because the first official death from the virus was from march.
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I literally am not saying that. If the first recorded death was Feb 1, and then it stayed from 1-5 until exploding March 14, it would change nothing about what I wrote. I'm talking about the the shape of the curve, overall quantity of deaths that would have had to have been missed during key testing periods to make it look like your theoretical model.

I can't believe you still refuse to get this. I'm done. Have fun with your windmills.
 
Metaphysicist said:
I literally am not saying that. If the first recorded death was Feb 1, and then it stayed from 1-5 until exploding March 14, it would change nothing about what I wrote. I'm talking about the the shape of the curve, overall quantity of deaths that would have had to have been missed during key testing periods to make it look like your theoretical model.

I can't believe you still refuse to get this. I'm done. Have fun with your windmills.
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There are countless variables that determine outcomes. The curve is the best shaped line but tr here is variability in true outcomes.

Based on your expected growth we should be hitting tens of thousands of deaths real soon right?
 
thethe said:
You are stating the the curves are significantly different because the first official death from the virus was from march. We just disagree with that point and it's not as if I'm the only person who believes this.
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What expert agrees with you?

Listen, I understand that there's **** that can't be accounted for. But it doesn't explain the worlds comparable cutve of this disease. Also your "model" doesn't factor in the incubation of this virus. It doesn't always incubate in the same timeframe.
 
zitothebrave said:
What expert agrees with you?

Listen, I understand that there's **** that can't be accounted for. But it doesn't explain the worlds comparable cutve of this disease. Also your "model" doesn't factor in the incubation of this virus. It doesn't always incubate in the same timeframe.
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Of course. I actually should have lagged my deaths from date of infections which is what I referenced a few posts back.

There is just absolutely no way any other model works other than the ones that assume infection was here in october November.

If not then the trajectory should get us to hundreds of thousands of deaths worldwide in a week or so considering Italy and Spains path along a curve that assumed deaths just started 6 weeks ago. Maybe we get there.
 
Carp said:
There are literally dozens if not hundreds of stories of hospitals and clinics across the nation running out of respirators and having to manufacture make shift ones.
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And there are stories of hospitals complaining about shortages 6 months / 12 months prior.

As a nation we are ramping up for something that we have basically never dealt with. The back and forth at both levels isnt helping.
 
So no quarantine...just reckless impulsive speculation about a quarantine which will cause some New Yorkers to get out of town and spread the virus
 
thethe said:
Of course. I actually should have lagged my deaths from date of infections which is what I referenced a few posts back.

There is just absolutely no way any other model works other than the ones that assume infection was here in october November.

If not then the trajectory should get us to hundreds of thousands of deaths worldwide in a week or so considering Italy and Spains path along a curve that assumed deaths just started 6 weeks ago. Maybe we get there.
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There's no evidence that this virus was in the US in October or November. Not saying that it didn't happen. But there's 0 evidence. It ignores a lot of factors associated with deaths. Such as incubation, reaction, so on so forth. Italy is ****ed for a number of reasons. I won't go into that. But this disease is attacking different areas differently.

Viruses have an interesting acceleration period. They vary disease to disease. But to say that it "doesn't make sense" is wrong. The issue with this disease is there's so much we don't know. We see places reporting 50% of carreirs not showing signs. But will they show signs later? Moderate signs a thing?
 
zitothebrave said:
There's no evidence that this virus was in the US in October or November. Not saying that it didn't happen. But there's 0 evidence. It ignores a lot of factors associated with deaths. Such as incubation, reaction, so on so forth. Italy is ****ed for a number of reasons. I won't go into that. But this disease is attacking different areas differently.

Viruses have an interesting acceleration period. They vary disease to disease. But to say that it "doesn't make sense" is wrong. The issue with this disease is there's so much we don't know. We see places reporting 50% of carreirs not showing signs. But will they show signs later? Moderate signs a thing?
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1. When did the spread happen in China?

2. What was the average infection rate of the population of China in October-February for each month?

3. How many people from china traveled to various locations?

These could be all asymptomatic and it should still set off a chain reaction that we are seeing now.
 
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