Metaphysicist
Not Actually Brian Hunter
That would truly be too high a price to pay to keep people alive. Thank you, Statue of Liberty.
The Coronavirus, not the beer
- Thread starter Runnin
- Start date
That would truly be too high a price to pay to keep people alive. Thank you, Statue of Liberty.
I'm sure this is exactly how he makes his decisions.
You guys are hedging because you know this is a game changer.
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
Excess fatality analysis for Spain and Italy.
https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/04/coronavirus-is-only-part-of-the-excess-fatality-mystery.html
Less than two weeks ago, Italian newspaper Corriere Della Sera published the results of an informal study that appeared to show that, in some regions of the country, non-coronavirus deaths were rising at an alarming rate alongside confirmed COVID-19 deaths — that the total death count was up as much as sixfold from previous years. Those deaths officially attributed to the coronavirus accounted for barely a quarter of the increase.
And Italy isn’t alone. In Spain, El País obtained a study that showed mortality rates in some regions had almost doubled, with only a fraction of the increase officially attributed to COVID-19. So what accounts for all those other deaths? Is the ultimate death toll from this pandemic going to be that much higher everywhere than is understood at the time? If we were able to allocate medical resources more effectively, could we reduce that number?
The answer to those questions is a matter of the balance of two factors: How many “excess deaths” are patients who have COVID-19 but haven’t been diagnosed with it, and how many are patients with other illnesses who can’t get proper treatment in overwhelmed hospital systems?
The first number is likely bigger than you think. Italy has tested about 200,000 people and confirmed 111,000 coronavirus cases. But experts say the true number of cases could be as high as 6 million. People who die at home or in nursing homes are not tested for the coronavirus, and their deaths may be classified as resulting from an underlying condition like chronic pulmonary disease or dementia. But the impact of the resource allocation is significant as well. Beds, physicians, and ventilators are finite resources, meaning that hospital systems around the world are scaling up COVID-19 capacity at the cost of ballooning excess deaths. “If you go to the ICU under normal circumstances, there’s ample capacity available,” says Carri Chan, an associate professor at Columbia Business School who studies the consequences of congestion in intensive-care units. “But if there’s congestion, you might get sent to a step-down unit or even a general medical surgical ward.” In Bergamo, a city northeast of Milan, about 20 percent of all family physicians have been infected, according to the The Wall Street Journal, crippling everyday health care for tens of thousands of people.
Ultimately, both factors will significantly increase the pandemic’s death toll; the only question is by what factor. Since the initial report out of Italy, follow-up studies have estimated the death toll in the country’s most affected regions could be anywhere from three to ten times higher than what’s been officially reported. However, those numbers cannot be easily grafted onto other countries: The United States has had more time to prepare than Italy, and, proportionally, Italy has about twice as many people who are 80 and over than the U.S. Italy’s hospitals have about 12 critical-care beds per 100,000 people, while the United States has about 35 per 100,000.
https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/04/coronavirus-is-only-part-of-the-excess-fatality-mystery.html
Less than two weeks ago, Italian newspaper Corriere Della Sera published the results of an informal study that appeared to show that, in some regions of the country, non-coronavirus deaths were rising at an alarming rate alongside confirmed COVID-19 deaths — that the total death count was up as much as sixfold from previous years. Those deaths officially attributed to the coronavirus accounted for barely a quarter of the increase.
And Italy isn’t alone. In Spain, El País obtained a study that showed mortality rates in some regions had almost doubled, with only a fraction of the increase officially attributed to COVID-19. So what accounts for all those other deaths? Is the ultimate death toll from this pandemic going to be that much higher everywhere than is understood at the time? If we were able to allocate medical resources more effectively, could we reduce that number?
The answer to those questions is a matter of the balance of two factors: How many “excess deaths” are patients who have COVID-19 but haven’t been diagnosed with it, and how many are patients with other illnesses who can’t get proper treatment in overwhelmed hospital systems?
The first number is likely bigger than you think. Italy has tested about 200,000 people and confirmed 111,000 coronavirus cases. But experts say the true number of cases could be as high as 6 million. People who die at home or in nursing homes are not tested for the coronavirus, and their deaths may be classified as resulting from an underlying condition like chronic pulmonary disease or dementia. But the impact of the resource allocation is significant as well. Beds, physicians, and ventilators are finite resources, meaning that hospital systems around the world are scaling up COVID-19 capacity at the cost of ballooning excess deaths. “If you go to the ICU under normal circumstances, there’s ample capacity available,” says Carri Chan, an associate professor at Columbia Business School who studies the consequences of congestion in intensive-care units. “But if there’s congestion, you might get sent to a step-down unit or even a general medical surgical ward.” In Bergamo, a city northeast of Milan, about 20 percent of all family physicians have been infected, according to the The Wall Street Journal, crippling everyday health care for tens of thousands of people.
Ultimately, both factors will significantly increase the pandemic’s death toll; the only question is by what factor. Since the initial report out of Italy, follow-up studies have estimated the death toll in the country’s most affected regions could be anywhere from three to ten times higher than what’s been officially reported. However, those numbers cannot be easily grafted onto other countries: The United States has had more time to prepare than Italy, and, proportionally, Italy has about twice as many people who are 80 and over than the U.S. Italy’s hospitals have about 12 critical-care beds per 100,000 people, while the United States has about 35 per 100,000.
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Dude, people die all the time.
At what level of we change life as we know it to keep people alive?
I think we are seeing the measures in place work though with flattening the curve.
The rate of increase on all metrics was dropping well before social distancing coildnhave impacted results.
I think it's natural to assume it worked to destroy the curve. But ultimately we were headed in a good direction before.
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
“The number of deaths that are being predicted from the pandemic are huge and will actually end up becoming the second or third leading cause of death this year,” said Dr. Steven Woolf, director emeritus of the Center on Society and Health at Virginia Commonwealth University. “But for the back of the envelope, all you need to do is think out a scenario where mortality rates from the leading causes of death, like heart disease, cancer, and so forth, increase by 10 percent and you’re suddenly dealing with very big numbers.”
A 2016 study in The Lancet connected at least 250,000 cancer deaths to the 2009 recession, and the stress of the pandemic and the economic crisis it has ignited will likely precipitate increased smoking, alcohol consumption, and drug use, as well. “The opioid epidemic was in the headlines until this came along, and it really hasn’t gone away,” said Woolf. “Now my colleagues in addiction medicine are reporting an increase in opioid overdoses during this pandemic.”
from the NYMag article linked earlier
A 2016 study in The Lancet connected at least 250,000 cancer deaths to the 2009 recession, and the stress of the pandemic and the economic crisis it has ignited will likely precipitate increased smoking, alcohol consumption, and drug use, as well. “The opioid epidemic was in the headlines until this came along, and it really hasn’t gone away,” said Woolf. “Now my colleagues in addiction medicine are reporting an increase in opioid overdoses during this pandemic.”
from the NYMag article linked earlier
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chop2chip
Well-known member
Are those additional deaths COVID or shutdown? If it’s shutdown related, that’s an extremely compelling case.
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
Ah yes. I was thinking about that question.
To answer that we need to think about what would have happened to the economy without the shutdown. There is no way to answer precisely, but absent a government sanctioned shutdown, certain sectors like restaurants, hotels, travel would still have taken very big hits. The fatality numbers coming in would be significantly higher. How would something like that affect public psychology. How would the absence of a government response affect psychology.
We will never have a precise answer.
How much was due to the sickness and how much was due to the "cure."
That's why we need Alabama to step forward and volunteer to do nothing. It would allow us to estimate the pure costs absent any government action.
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I disagree. Every geographical region is different based on population density, communiting patterns and travel with China.
Otherwise, you are assuming too much for the comparison.
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
Well we need a state that as closely as possible approximates the national characteristics you mention to volunteer to do nothing. Alabama is probably not a good guinea pig in that regard. We would also have to seal off that state from the other states and turn it into a petri dish.
Sweden is our best data point. But what will happen is as cases grow leadership will pull the plug on their experiment.
chop2chip
Well-known member
Long Island. We needed Long Island to take no action.
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
I'm all for that.
Do you know why it's called Long Island? Cuz everyone there is longing to be elsewhere.
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
If we decapitate the leadership they won't be able to pull the plug on the experiment.
All for it. People bitching here are annoying
sturg33
I
Nah just gotta stop Trump from massive profits!!