The Coronavirus, not the beer
- Thread starter Runnin
- Start date
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
I don't think that's what the French doctor is saying in the interview. He is warning about side effects from combinations of drugs that on their own have weak side effects. It's the cocktail (patients also are often on other drugs and have blood conditions that contribute to this) that is dangerous. And requires close monitoring over period of days.
And the French doctor ends the interview with a phrase that has become popular these days: the cure should not be worse than the disease. In particular, he notes that the disease resolves itself favorably in most patients.
It is fair to say he thinks caution is warranted about this cocktail. Which is the attitude one would expect from a pro.
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No question about it. Nobody is saying to make this over the counter and just have a free for all
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
a lot of unknowns...a lot of unknowns whose importance is difficult to evaluate...sometimes you know something is unknown but have a good sense that it isn't important...but here you have unknowns that might or might not be important
we need Rummy to explain this
Aren't you curious why the rate of growth of new cases was slowing well before the lockout could have had an impact?
This is great news.
Any significant differences between the approach and overall circumstances between the countries?
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
Um...i think number of new cases depends on testing as well as the spread of infection...but here is the daily count of new cases
3/1 18
3/2 15
3/3 28
3/4 26
3/5 64
3/6 77
3/7 101
3/8 144
3/9 148
3/10 291
3/11 269
3/12 393
3/13 565
3/14 662
3/15 676
3/16 872
3/17 1,291
3/18 2,410
3/19 3,948
3/20 5,417
3/21 6,271
3/22 8,631
3/23 10,410
3/24 9,939
3/25 12,226
3/26 17,050
3/27 19,046
3/28 20,093
3/29 19,118
3/30 20,463
3/31 25,396
4/1 26,732
4/2 28,812
4/3 32,182
4/4 34,068
4/5 25,717
4/6 29,362
4/7 30,752
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
Yeah. Canada is slightly more urbanized. Canadian cities have more mass transit. Canada has a larger percentage of its population that is of Chinese origin.
Both the 2 day and 3 day rate of growth spiked at or around March 21st. The Country realistically started changing their movement patterns the middle of March. Therefore, we should not have seen the peak in confirmed cases this early.
Again, I have been saying this for a long time but the amount of uninfected dropped signifacntly and therefore the rate of growth stopped.
Woudl we have had more cases and therefore more deaths without the lockdown? Of course - That seems rather obvious. The question is how much more and the data is showing us that the rate of infection, through the terrible proxy of confirmed cases, that the peak was hit when we were all normal.
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Since NY composes of almost half the cases of CCP virus I think its essential to break NY and the US separately.
There are obvious reasons why NY ended up the way it did and through close proximity NJ/CT.
The rest of the country really isn't that bad
To further this point - Since the peak in confirmed cases was around March 21st and incubation is anywhere from 7-14 days you could argue that actual infections were decreasing prior to any lockdowns at all.
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
Rates of growth don't mean much and are outright misleading when you are starting from a small number.
Daily new cases went from 6K on March 21 to 25K on March 31. I don't think this is consistent with your hypothesis that infection rates flattened before social distancing had a chance to have an effect. Look at the data. They don't support this idea of yours.
But the growth properties of a virus is based on rate of transmission. It doesn't matter what the starting point is. The rate is the best metric to assess. It didn't just drop slightly. For example:
2 day rate of growth:
3/20 - 153%
3/22 - 59%
3 Day rate of growth:
3/21 - 242%
3/24 - 85%
This is not a small matter.
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
I will try an analogy. Imagine you are doing a cross country trip from NY to LA. And you are a very steady driver and go a 1000 miles each day. On day one the amount of distance you travelled has a growth rate of infinity. On day 2 50%. On day 3 33%. On day 4 25%.
Nothing is happening here. But your "growth rate" is falling fast.
Capiche?
This way of looking at the situation is pretty stupid.
The rate of transmission tells you everything.
It tells you there are less uninfected people interacting with infected people from a proportional persepctive.
How can that be denied?
In your example the first day is with a completely uninfected population. The later days have more infected
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
i'd love to know what the rate of transmission was
can you tell what it was on any particular day
if you can i would have to change my assessment of you completely
tell me what it was on 3/21 and what it was on 3/31
and please show your work
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