The Coronavirus, not the beer

Metaphysicist said:
They mapped the genomes from a bajillion tests and compared them with a computer. Happy to help.
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The method they used, estimating a biological clock by counting the number of mutations that separate strains of the virus, is basically the same approach used to calculate how long ago humans split from chimpanzees or neanderthals. It is pretty cool science. It is a fair point that a range should be given (and I'm sure this is the case in the scientific papers) since estimates of the rate of mutation has a range of uncertainty. But even with the range of uncertainty the geneticists can rule out the virus circulating in China in 2018 or even the first half of 2019.
 
nsacpi said:
The method they used, estimating a biological clock by counting the number of mutations that separate strains of the virus, is basically the same approach used to calculate how long ago humans split from chimpanzees or neanderthals. It is pretty cool science. It is a fair point that a range should be given (and I'm sure this is the case in the scientific papers) since estimates of the rate of mutation has a range of uncertainty. But even with the range of uncertainty the geneticists can rule out the virus circulating in China in 2018 or even the first half of 2019.
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This is why I'm asking what does 'late' mean.
 
Trump's admission that he never saw intelligence reports that would have warned him of the consequences of ignoring the COVID-19 pandemic came one day after he admitted to reporters that he neither read nor sought to read Navarro's memos.

"I heard he wrote some memos talking about a pandemic," Trump said on Tuesday when asked about his trade advisor's warnings. "I didn't see them, I didn't look for them either."

https://www.newsweek.com/trump-says...-reports-initial-coronavirus-outbreak-1496958
 
thethe said:
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Who could have predicted that social distancing would work!!!!! This is the line that is being used even though it was baked into the models.

BUT! Americans were even better than we thought is such a great cop out.
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I dunno dude... while Berenson is posting data consistently, he DID get that one thing wrong that one time.

So sadly, everything he posts is dismissed and instead we must continue lockdowns for another 6 months.
 
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Imagine how high this number is in NY with more travel and denser population?

Maybe 50% of people in the boroughs have it.
 
There is a saying about models: none are accurate, some are useful.

Those are wise words and should be kept in mind when discussing them.
 
sturg33 said:
I dunno dude... while Berenson is posting data consistently, he DID get that one thing wrong that one time.

So sadly, everything he posts is dismissed and instead we must continue lockdowns for another 6 months.
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Why listen to someone going against the consensus?

Close your eyes and believe!
 
Carp said:
Clearly this research was financially supported by the liberal media which was financially supported by the CCP. Didn't you hear?
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Interesting that this outbreak was caused by European visitors. Glad to see research like this is being done.

But this is also besides the point. The vitriol against the CCP isn’t that they infected New York City specifically. It’s because they were bad actors from the beginning that attempted to cover up an outbreak by lying to the world and suppressing data.
 
chop2chip said:
Interesting that this outbreak was caused by European visitors. Glad to see research like this is being done.

But this is also besides the point. The vitriol against the CCP isn’t that they infected New York City specifically. It’s because they were bad actors from the beginning that attempted to cover up an outbreak by lying to the world and suppressing data.
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I have no problem with people slamming China. They deserve it. I'm just mocking thethe.
 
Love that an argument is being made that a virus was ravaging china in q4 and they somehow were not the principal injector despite almost a million people traveling to the US from Oct-Jan.

Some special kind of logic there.
 
thethe said:
Have any been useful this far?
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I think there has been one basic insight that has been quite useful. It is summarized by the curve flattening idea. That if you can flatten it and prevent overwhelming the medical system you can save lives.

Another basic insight is you base decisions on when to re-open upon when two curves intersect. One is the cost of shutting large parts of the economy. And the other represents the benefits from the shutdown. Of course the devil is in the details. But the basic insight is very useful for people making policy.
 
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nsacpi said:
I think there has been one basic insight that has been quite useful. It is summarized by the curve flattening idea. That if you can flatten it and prevent overwhelming the medical system you can save lives.
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Didn't need models that overstated outcomes by factors of 4 to know that.

But, based on what we are seeing now the outcome if we did nothing is certainly not 1 million deaths.

Would it have even been 200K deaths? Who knows - NOt saying that is a desirable outcome but this is a thought exercise.
 
nsacpi said:
I think there has been one basic insight that has been quite useful. It is summarized by the curve flattening idea. That if you can flatten it and prevent overwhelming the medical system you can save lives.

Another basic insight is you base decisions on when to re-open upon when two curves intersect. One is the cost of shutting large parts of the economy. And the other represents the benefits from the shutdown. Of course the devil is in the details. But the basic insight is very useful for people making policy.
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The only medical system in the country that has been overwhelmed is NYC.

Other hospitals are closing down bc they cant afford to pay their staff as they have patients
 
sturg33 said:
The only medical system in the country that has been overwhelmed is NYC.

Other hospitals are closing down bc they cant afford to pay their staff as they have patients
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And NYC is actually handled it well despite the surge.

With capacity up there is no reason not to re-open the economy.
 
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