The Coronavirus, not the beer

There are a couple things I wonder about:

1) when chosen one was briefed on the IC report did he accord undue weight to the do nothing scenario

2) if yes to 1) was this part of some sort of scheme on the part of his briefers
 
sturg33 said:
The funny thing about you telling me to read the one alternative voice to the hundreds of people I follow peddling the same information much less is how we get to a mess where everyone blindly accepts that if we dont imprison ourselves 2 million people will die.

Saying a shutdown was announced on March 23 is not a lie. In fact, it's the opposite of a lie. I understand your point that the official semantics is a technicality, but it's not a lie.

You'll have to excuse me for paying attention to someone who is posting (real) data, and asking questions that arent the consensus of every firefighting journalist on my timeline. Why an opposing viewpoint of the real world data we are seeing is so offensive to you is a puzzler to me.
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The lie is that Ohio is claiming the March 23 shutdown order avoided a March 22 peak. It is explicitly a lie to say that's what Ohio is claiming. You and thethe ate that lie up like candy, and then posted it about it here to cry about being silenced.

I will excuse you for paying attention; you are as free to read truthers like this guy, just like SteakSauce is free to donate to Jill Stein's campaign to investigate Trump's election fraud. But it extremely f'ing annoying for you to keep posting this guy's drivel here, and then on top of that complaining about you and him being silenced or whatever.

"Real data" lol. "The experts are wrong, the whole thing is a lie, me and this moron on twitter have the REAL data" is exactly what a conspiracy theorist says. So yeah, sorry for mistaking you for one.
 
thethe said:
Great, I appreciate your feedback mostly because I like your writing.

Based on these preliminary findings would you also agree that in a city like NY the virus would spread more?
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No idea at this point. I mean, there is an obvious logical inference that the R0 in NYC is gonna be higher than some ranch in Wyoming. No body is gonna deny that, on a basic level. But this was a hard hit small region of German that apparently spread it during a huge festival or something. We would need more data to say anything definitive at this point.
 
Metaphysicist said:
No idea at this point. I mean, there is an obvious logical inference that the R0 in NYC is gonna be higher than some ranch in Wyoming. No body is gonna deny that, on a basic level. But this was a hard hit small region of German that apparently spread it during a huge festival or something. We would need more data to say anything definitive at this point.
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NYC has a daily festival every day of the week underground that attracts many more people.

The data in NY is different than almost anywhere in the world. We are just fortunate to have by far the best medical infrastructure and knowledge.
 
thethe said:
NYC has a daily festival every day of the week underground that attracts many more people.

The data in NY is different than almost anywhere in the world. We are just fortunate to have by far the best medical infrastructure and knowledge.
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I'm still baffled why random testing is not being done. That would provide an answer.
 
thethe said:
NYC has a daily festival every day of the week underground that attracts many more people.

The data in NY is different than almost anywhere in the world. We are just fortunate to have by far the best medical infrastructure and knowledge.
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Maybe, but it is hard to know the degree. Data is better than assumptions.
 
goldfly said:
[tw]1248386761174036481[/tw]

Great news that, most likely, people are sick and worried about bills

So they aren’t going to the hospital and instead just dying
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Did the rich people get sick sooner which is why they could afford the hospital?

I sorta see your point but it’s wild conclusion to jump to without an argument
 
goldfly said:
[tw]1248386761174036481[/tw]

Great news that, most likely, people are sick and worried about bills

So they aren’t going to the hospital and instead just dying
Click to expand...

It has been noted that deaths lag behind hospitalizations about a month. Today's rise in deaths comes from the increase in cases a month ago.

If today hospitalization numbers are going down, then a month from now death numbers should reflect that.

Does this mean that the highest death rates should be still weeks away, 3 - 4 weeks after the highest new cases days, assuming that this is actually the crest?

93277488_10158551013733756_6555402957477642240_n.jpg


While I've heard a supposed epidemiologist say deaths lag a month behind new cases, actually the graphs look very similar. No idea.

92595623_10158551074273756_6758483730085445632_n.jpg
 
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Daily death count in NY state:

3/25 75
3/26 100
3/27 134
3/28 209
3/29 237
3/30 253
3/31 332
4/1 391
4/2 432
4/3 563
4/4 630
4/5 594
4/6 599
4/7 731
4/8 779
4/9 799

For the United States

3/25 225
3/26 253
3/27 433
3/28 447
3/29 392
3/30 554
3/31 821
4/1 940
4/2 1,075
4/3 1,186
4/4 1,352
4/5 1,175
4/6 1,212
4/7 1,928
4/8 1,936
4/9 1,856
 
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