zitothebrave
Connoisseur of Minors
The thing is that in a few months we'll be reopened and at the same point as them with hopefully less deaths. We don't know for sure. Because there's a lot of uncertainty.
The Coronavirus, not the beer
- Thread starter Runnin
- Start date
The thing is that in a few months we'll be reopened and at the same point as them with hopefully less deaths. We don't know for sure. Because there's a lot of uncertainty.
Metaphysicist
Not Actually Brian Hunter
The complaints aren't about blaming the Government of China. People are concerned about stigmatizing those of Chinese descent. For example, people were scrawling anti-Chinese student message on the library chalkboard here.
Metaphysicist
Not Actually Brian Hunter
One study with a huge outbreak showed 15% in a small area. That's not evidence of 50% in NYC; we have no idea what that number is.
I think there are many factors which you are intimately familiar with that could get you to a 15% smallish European town to 50% or more in NYC.
I have zero evidence of course and I get your skepticism but I think sometimes logic can take you where you need to go.
Metaphysicist
Not Actually Brian Hunter
Can you just make this your sig?
My zero evidence has been pretty good so far
zitothebrave
Connoisseur of Minors
It's sad you don't realize the main reason for this is to limit transmission to not overload the hospitals. It's been clear. Economy was tanking before exclusion. When the second biggest economy and the biggest producer in the world is shut down.
You dont understand how growth of functions work. Try to learn how transmission works within a specified environment and what even 20% immunity does.
Is that your takeaway? So you have no problem with it being referred to as the Wuhan Virus?
Metaphysicist
Not Actually Brian Hunter
I was just answering your question. Maher's rhetorical question is not something people are actually saying and shows he doesn't even comprehend the actual issue.
Personally, I think calling it the Wuhan Virus when that's not actually its name probably creates some of the same stigma. If the doctor's were calling it the Wuhan virus, I would care less. But they are not.
This is really just right-wing "virtue signaling," which y'all are supposed to hate.
Or the acknowledgement that the CCP needs go be tried for their crimes against humanity.
Metaphysicist
Not Actually Brian Hunter
So all the previous virus names were virtue signaling as well?
Metaphysicist
Not Actually Brian Hunter
My post wasn't that long. You can probably figure out for yourself the difference and the main issue.
Because we have idiots in the world who say and do mean things to chinese people
Forgive me if I dont let the ignorant drive my thoughts.
Metaphysicist
Not Actually Brian Hunter
Aww...cute. Was obsessed with the show growing up.
You focus on ignorant bigots all you want. I'll focus on the CCP.
Metaphysicist
Not Actually Brian Hunter
sturg, if you are interested I took a closer look at some of the "the models are wrong, see the hospitalization rates" truthing that's going on. I was, selfishly, most interested in the numbers for NY. Looks like while the IMHE model did drastically reduce the projected hospitalizations there, I'm not convinced it wasn't just because, as thethe likes to point out, the logistics of NY are different. Frankly, it makes me more concerned for NY, not less.
The whole model is based extrapolation hospital resource usage from death numbers, since that is basically the closest thing to solid data. So the ratio between Hospitalization
eath is the key component of the hospitalization number. So here is what the revised IMHE report says about those hospitalization ratios:
Basically, they were using the limited nationwide data available and applying it uniformly to the states. As better data came in they were able to create state-by-state ratios that revealed that the Hospeath ratio was varying wildly by state:
So NY has by far the lowest ratio in the nation at 4.22 (looks like it is closer to 5:1 now, based on the NYC data page). What does that mean? Of the top of my head, it seems like there are two explanations for this disparity between NY and CA (or even the mean).
1) NY is doing a much worse job keeping people alive (numerator)
2) NY is turning away people that they previously, or other states, would have hospitalized (denominator)
Frankly, both options are bad for NY. Both are probably happening to some degree, but I think #2 is the real kicker: hospitals here are triaging and sending people home that would in normal times be given beds because they need to focus on the most severe cases.
I personally know of someone in GA, another place with a below mean ratio, who claim to have been seriously sick (>102 for 2 weeks, lost 20 pounds) and were essentially turned out because they needed room for sicker people; he definitely seemed like someone that would have been hospitalized before. tapate probably has a better take on what's going on in GA, though, so I would defer to his observations there over my anecdotes.
But for NY, this seems to be exactly what is happening. Here is one post in a very good twitter thread from a NY ER doc:
[tw]1248837617996763136[/tw]
The takeaway is that the hospitalization projections for NY fell not because everything got better, or was never bad to begin with, (though maybe some things did get better, and maybe some things weren't as bad!), but it looks like some people who would in normal times be admitted are being sent home as "not quite bad enough" cases.
The causal link is not: Lower hospitalization -> Lower death.
The real link is: More severe outbreak -> Lower Hospeath ratio
Hope this was interesting to someone else. It was to me, at least.
The whole model is based extrapolation hospital resource usage from death numbers, since that is basically the closest thing to solid data. So the ratio between Hospitalization
eath is the key component of the hospitalization number. So here is what the revised IMHE report says about those hospitalization ratios: Basically, they were using the limited nationwide data available and applying it uniformly to the states. As better data came in they were able to create state-by-state ratios that revealed that the Hosp
eath ratio was varying wildly by state:
So NY has by far the lowest ratio in the nation at 4.22 (looks like it is closer to 5:1 now, based on the NYC data page). What does that mean? Of the top of my head, it seems like there are two explanations for this disparity between NY and CA (or even the mean).
1) NY is doing a much worse job keeping people alive (numerator)
2) NY is turning away people that they previously, or other states, would have hospitalized (denominator)
Frankly, both options are bad for NY. Both are probably happening to some degree, but I think #2 is the real kicker: hospitals here are triaging and sending people home that would in normal times be given beds because they need to focus on the most severe cases.
I personally know of someone in GA, another place with a below mean ratio, who claim to have been seriously sick (>102 for 2 weeks, lost 20 pounds) and were essentially turned out because they needed room for sicker people; he definitely seemed like someone that would have been hospitalized before. tapate probably has a better take on what's going on in GA, though, so I would defer to his observations there over my anecdotes.
But for NY, this seems to be exactly what is happening. Here is one post in a very good twitter thread from a NY ER doc:
[tw]1248837617996763136[/tw]
The takeaway is that the hospitalization projections for NY fell not because everything got better, or was never bad to begin with, (though maybe some things did get better, and maybe some things weren't as bad!), but it looks like some people who would in normal times be admitted are being sent home as "not quite bad enough" cases.
The causal link is not: Lower hospitalization -> Lower death.
The real link is: More severe outbreak -> Lower Hosp
eath ratioHope this was interesting to someone else. It was to me, at least.
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Metaphysicist
Not Actually Brian Hunter
Anyway, for all the talk of plateaus the death data in NYC continues to get worse. The NYC data page uses actual death dates, rather than report dates, so it doesn't get fully filled in until a week or so passes, but you can see the steady increase through 4/5 (447 deaths so far) or so:
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
Some very sick people are also choosing to stay home. I talked to a friend yesterday who himself got very sick from COVID. He told me his mother was in bed for 24 days. Her children wanted her hospitalized but she insisted on staying home. Tough old lady. She is better now.