Does it happen to those without heart conditions?
They have been prescribing the drug for decades so it really can't be that often if you have no prior heart issues.
The Coronavirus, not the beer
- Thread starter Runnin
- Start date
Does it happen to those without heart conditions?
They have been prescribing the drug for decades so it really can't be that often if you have no prior heart issues.
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
Actually I'm not sure about that. Maybe they can screen out people who are at risk for that side effect.
chop2chip
Well-known member
This is the most interesting news story in the world right now, IMO. We all should root hard for Sweden because they lay a groundwork to helping businesses open again.
I think they have largely succeeded so far, but I guess we will soon see.
Yeah...deaths were always going to go up. Its indicative of what was happening 2 weeks ago.
Leading data is positive and trending in the right direction.
chop2chip
Well-known member
Question for the contact tracing crowd:
How would this be implemented?
How do you address the incentive for infected people to leave their phones at home?
How do you track people without smartphones? Elderly, kids, poor people,
It seems to me that if x% participation < threshold, then this system doesn’t work and we should be focusing our efforts elsewhere. But I am frankly not that well educated on the approach.
How would this be implemented?
How do you address the incentive for infected people to leave their phones at home?
How do you track people without smartphones? Elderly, kids, poor people,
It seems to me that if x% participation < threshold, then this system doesn’t work and we should be focusing our efforts elsewhere. But I am frankly not that well educated on the approach.
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
South Korea implemented it in a comprehensive way. It requires people and technology. You can track movements and contacts with phone, credit card, and GPS information. Most people will be responsible once they've tested positive and cooperate with the tracers. Who wants to get other people sick.
There is a tradeoff. The better tracing works, the less burden on the other aspects of any plan. Less burden on testing, less burden on social distancing, less burden on adding to hospital capacity. The whole plan has to be looked at collectively. If you don't implement tracing well, then you will have to do other things better.
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My position on this has been is the cost benefit worth it with such a contagious disease? You'll be chasing your tail forever and not do a whole lot to stop the spread.
What could go wrong...
With the new numbers suggesting COVID-19 deaths in NYC to be over 10,000, that would mean the death rate would have already surpassed .2% and approaching .3%, (assuming half the population is infected as thethe suggests).
If the number of infected is more realistic, and 1/4 of NYC has the virus currently (still a bit generous, imo but within reasonable variance), you are looking at death rate of .5% and climbing by the day.
If the number of infected is more realistic, and 1/4 of NYC has the virus currently (still a bit generous, imo but within reasonable variance), you are looking at death rate of .5% and climbing by the day.
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
The problem with that view (which a month ago I would have agreed with) is that the economy won't recover until people feel more safe. You have to show them what you are doing. Explain the strategy. Help them understand the risks. Demonstrate a commitment to resource and staff the plan. Otherwise, the economy will remain in a coma. Making people feel a good deal more safe than they currently do is a prerequisite for waking up the economy.
The other new piece of information (which ties in to the issue of people feeling safe) is that the modeling work I've seen has made me more pessimistic about secondary waves of infection. Our lives are unlikely to be the same for quite a while. There is a yuge public education challenge to this whole thing. People need to understand that some of the restrictions will be relaxed, but might periodically have to be put back on if the data show a new surge of infections.
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Then be honest and tell them that a majority of the population is at virtually no risk. Explain how herd immunity works. Explain that another month of exposure will effectively kill the virus transmission and keep the at risk at home during that period.
I'm sure they'll find another 10k deaths soon to justify this for a bad flu.
Absolutely rooting for good news. But I can't help feeling sorry for their citizens. Especially if it gets a lot worse there.
Herd immunity, in general, takes much longer to develop than people are assuming. Sure, they may not experience a 2nd wave of new infections in 6 months, which is great in theory, but they are sacrificing a lot of lives in the process. Also, a vaccine could be developed in the coming months, making their entire exercise futile and the loss of thousands of lives unnecessary.
A vaccine wont be ready for public consumption for 12 months the earliest.
And even if the vaccine is ready in a alternative universe in 3 months. Your solution is to do what? Stay inside for 3 more months?
Holy smokes
Herd immunity actually happens quickly once a certain percentage of the population already has the active virus
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
It will be interesting to see the economic data from Sweden. They will suffer a lot too. I'm curious as to the proportion relative to Denmark and FINLAND.
Even assuming those numbers aren't correct (unlikely since we know a bunch of people are dying at home), the death rate for KNOWN deaths will likely reach .2% today or tomorrow in NYC (and this is assuming your ridiculous notion that half of NYC is infected). And the numbers are growing on a daily basis. Could easily be at .3% this time next week.
Likewise, if half the city of Albany, GA has the virus, their death rate would also already be over .2%
This study will require an elapsed time of at least a year if the other nordic nations go into another stage of lockdowns.