The Coronavirus, not the beer

nsacpi said:
that's what the experts say with their big words and maps and models and fancy degrees from fancy schools
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Well that pretty much leaves me out then. :/

I just hope that it doesn't mutate into something even worse AND that when a vaccine is finally developed it doesn't belong to that asshole who tried to rob everybody with that one med (an HIV med wasn't it?) a couple of years ago, you know the hedge fund guy with such a cute smile and winning personality.
 
thethe said:
Swedens numbers look great the past 2 days. Will be interested to see what normalization on death reporting happens tomorrow.

Don't seem to see a lot of knocking the Swedish model anymore.
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Do we really have to go over every week how deaths are rarely recorded over the weekend? That's why Tuesday's and Wednesdays are generally huge spikes.
 
Oklahomahawk said:
You guys realize that no matter how this next month or so plays out there WILL be a 2nd wave coming some time this Summer or early Fall, right?
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Hopefully we find a solid treatment for it until a vaccine can be found. The trials with remdesivir look promising, though too early to tell.
 
Carp said:
Do we really have to go over every week how deaths are rarely recorded over the weekend? That's why Tuesday's and Wednesdays are generally huge spikes.
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Oh - Its inconvenient to discuss how well the non-china (US) model is doing.

I know.
 
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Vicious

The clear lack of interest in 20m americans losing their job is going to crush democrats at the ballot.
 
Carp said:
You and sturg beat this drum last Monday and then there were record numbers of deaths reported the next 2 days.
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I stated in my post that I'm eager to see the new data on Tuesday for the catchup.

And it still has shown a drastic flattening and even a reduction of new infections so yeah Sweden IS working while we stay in our homes scared out of our minds.
 
thethe said:
I stated in my post that I'm eager to see the new data on Tuesday for the catchup.

And it still has shown a drastic flattening and even a reduction of new infections so yeah Sweden IS working while we stay in our homes scared out of our minds.
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Then you clearly used the data from the last two days to make a comment about people not knocking the Swedish model anymore.

So you're waiting for new data to come out but go ahead and use clearly misleading data to try and prove your view? About standard operating procedure for you.
 
Carp said:
And surpise, surprise, Sweden again reporting record high number of deaths at 185 new deaths.
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And a continued trend of lower infections.

Their model is working better than ours and after their seroligcal tests come back at higher percentages they will be in much better shape to go back to 'normal'.
 
Oh, i'll put my record on statements in this thread against anyone.

I know thats a hard truth for you
 
thethe said:
And a continued trend of lower infections.

Their model is working better than ours and after their seroligcal tests come back at higher percentages they will be in much better shape to go back to 'normal'.
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The # of new infections are also backlogged, so again, weekend figures are rather useless to use as some sort baseline for a trend. Sweden has been averaging about 550+ per day since April 1. It's encouraging that they are no longer seeing exponential increasing, but new infections aren't decreasing.

Edit: Sorry, napkin math was a little off. They've been averaging 518 new infections per day since April 1.
 
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Carp said:
The # of new infections are also backlogged, so again, weekend figures are rather useless to use as some sort baseline for a trend. Sweden has been averaging about 550+ per day since April 1. It's encouraging that they are no longer seeing exponential increasing, but new infections aren't decreasing.
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New infections are decreasing.
 
Runnin said:
Duh. Because people have been sheltering in place.



Like when you said we wouldn't reach 20,000 deaths?
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I havent been 100% that's for sure.

Still saw the writing on the wall sooner than most while many of you continue to hide in your homes and call the cops on your neighbors for going outside all for a bad flu.
 
thethe said:
New infections are decreasing.
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How do you figure? Again, Sweden is averaging 518 new infections per day since April 1. On a per week basis since April 1, they are averaging 3,258 from April 1-April 7 (or 465/day), 3,752 from April 8-April 14 (or 536/day), and 3,877 from April 15-April 21 (or 553/day). What about those numbers suggests that new infections are going down?
 
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Carp said:
How do you figure? Again, Sweden is averaging 518 new infections per day since April 1. On a per week basis since April 1, they are averaging 3,258 from April 1-April 7 (or 465/day), 3,752 from April 8-April 14 (or 536/day), and 3,877 from April 15-April 21 (or 553/day). What about those numbers suggests that new infections are going down?
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Show them in 2 and 3 day groupings.

That is how to look at them. The virus spreads too quickly to have such a long tail on your analysis.
 
thethe said:
Show them in 2 and 3 day groupings.

That is how to look at them. The virus spreads too quickly to have such a long tail on your analysis.
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What part of numbers over the weekend are rarely recorded is difficult to understand? Explain how weekly numbers are less accurate than using known under-recorded numbers over the weekend?
 
thethe said:
Show them in 2 and 3 day groupings.

That is how to look at them. The virus spreads too quickly to have such a long tail on your analysis.
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given the weekly periodicity of the data from the weekend effect and the 14 day infectious period, i wouldn't use 2-3 day groupings (which are very noisy anyhow)

weekly averages are the way to go...compare 7 days with the previous 7 days
 
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