The Coronavirus, not the beer
- Thread starter Runnin
- Start date
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
didn't the Santa Clara study estimate a ratio between 50 and 85 times?
Those multiples made no sense for NYC so I dont think anyone treated them seriously. What it did do it make it very obvious the multiple was very large.
What is the argument to stay closed now?
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
In the early weeks of the coronavirus epidemic, the United States recorded an estimated 15,400 excess deaths, nearly two times as many as were publicly attributed to covid-19 at the time, according to an analysis of federal data conducted for The Washington Post by a research team led by the Yale School of Public Health.
The excess deaths — the number beyond what would normally be expected for that time of year — occurred during March and through April 4, a time when 8,128 coronavirus deaths were reported.
The excess deaths are not necessarily attributable directly to covid-19, the disease caused by the coronavirus. They could include people who died because of the epidemic but not from the disease, such as those who were afraid to seek medical treatment for unrelated illnesses, as well as some number of deaths that are part of the ordinary variation in the death rate. The count is also affected by increases or decreases in other categories of deaths, such as suicides, homicides and motor vehicle accidents.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/inve...covid-19-death-toll-undercounted/?arc404=true
The excess deaths — the number beyond what would normally be expected for that time of year — occurred during March and through April 4, a time when 8,128 coronavirus deaths were reported.
The excess deaths are not necessarily attributable directly to covid-19, the disease caused by the coronavirus. They could include people who died because of the epidemic but not from the disease, such as those who were afraid to seek medical treatment for unrelated illnesses, as well as some number of deaths that are part of the ordinary variation in the death rate. The count is also affected by increases or decreases in other categories of deaths, such as suicides, homicides and motor vehicle accidents.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/inve...covid-19-death-toll-undercounted/?arc404=true
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nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
bump...your take ten days ago when discussing the Santa Clara data
I guess 25% is pretty close to upwards of 50-60%
that's a pretty neat piece of jujitsu to claim a 25% number as vindication for your views
It's not 25% now and you know it.
So I got excited and exaggerated. My overall direction on this virus has been more accurate than yours and it's not even close.
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
10 days ago you were saying upwards of 50-60%
the excitability excuse can only be used by Italians around here...sowwy...I expect better from you thethe...you are a man of numbers and precision...do better
I've been excitable my whole life.
It's been very clear how this was overblown for a long time.
If not for democratic governors terrible policies with the elderly we would be looking at a CFR in the .1-.25 range.
So you think in 3-4 weeks when the enitre city has been shutdown, that NYC gained an million to 2 million cases? Yeah, I'm gonna say no.
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
Those two sentences together provide me with a lot of comfort and reassurance.
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
essentially he will be right no matter what...he might get excited and exaggerate a little once in a while...but he is always right...look at his posts on HDQ...they have been fabulous...I'm tempted to bump a few if them
Look at the confirmed cases. Did they plummet after lockdown?
You hate that this has turned into Russia collusion part 2 for you.
It's ok to be wrong.
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
to clarify he claimed upward of 50-60% in NYC ten days ago...ten days ago
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
I do find it to be painful to be proven to be wrong so often
Actually, running the numbers this multiple of 50 might be right.
There is at least a 2 week lag time.
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Of what?
The whole point is this test does not capture anyone who was infected in the last 4 weeks.
And it's extremely unlikely upwards of 1 million people have been infected during this time. I can imagine an extra 5% of the population or so, becoming infected. But it's super unlikely the real % of infected this very minute is much over 30% right now (if that), and certainly nowhere near 50%.