The Coronavirus, not the beer

[Carp]

[Tw]1259874636826849282[/tw]

Results of not being truthful.

Blended IFR means next to nothing but needs to be discussed because its pushed down our throats.

Wait, so NY State is actually LEADING the nation in lowest percentage of cursing home deaths? And somehow you're blasting Cuomo over this....

Also, even removing all the nursing home deaths in NY state, it's still literally impossible for the IFR to be close to .1%.

 

[Metaphysicist]

Broke your rule eh?

I'm honored.

You didn't link anything for me to ignore, so I think I'm good.

 

[Carp]

No one disputes those things will go up. The fact that you think that number is even close to what we are trying to avoid is why you are embracing magical thinking.

Also you and thethe post a bunch of links to lots of garbage in this thread. I completely ignore anything he posts at this point, and I am increasingly reading less of what you link. If there is gold hidden in between all the twitter trolls you keep ****posting, it is your fault for hiding it from us.

Don't forget, they also post links as "proof" of their incoherent ramblings, when if they bothered to read the entire articles, it would actually disprove the very same thing they are arguing.

 

[thethe]

Wait, so NY State is actually LEADING the nation in lowest percentage of cursing home deaths? And somehow you're blasting Cuomo over this....

Also, even removing all the nursing home deaths in NY state, it's still literally impossible for the IFR to be close to .1%.

Cuomo policy led to the deaths of thousands of elderly. As fid many other governors because of the position people like you are taking.

 

[thethe]

Don't forget, they also post links as "proof" of their incoherent ramblings, when if they bothered to read the entire articles, it would actually disprove the very same thing they are arguing.

Give an example of this and I'd be happy to go 9ver each article.

Maybe its just that our sources present both sides?

 

[thethe]

That would be a relevant observation if the whole population of the earth had it since November. Obviously it spreads from place to place... But yes, the strain is the real crisis issue.

never forget the epic goalposts movement.

By this standard we should have opened up a month ago.

 

[thethe]

[Tw]1259876229429309447[/tw]

We are actually staying home because as a nation we couldn't protect nursing homes.

What an utter disgrace and anyone that supported the extended lockdowns has no clue what they are talking about.

 

[Carp]

Give an example of this and I'd be happy to go 9ver each article.

Maybe its just that our sources present both sides?

You posted several over the last 2 months. But one I keenly remember was the one talking about death rates and I believe anti-bodies. They gave a pretty wide variation on the IFR, which you immediately used the furthest variation to say "SEE!! .1%!!!" In actuality, the author admitted they thought the death rate was roughly .65%.

 

[thethe]

You posted several over the last 2 months. But one I keenly remember was the one talking about death rates and I believe anti-bodies. They gave a pretty wide variation on the IFR, which you immediately used the furthest variation to say "SEE!! .1%!!!" In actuality, the author admitted they thought the death rate was roughly .65%.

Find the article and discussion.

Many studies have ranges.

But the more studies that came put the more often that multiple range appeared. I know its fashionable to ig ore those studies which show widespread in relation to confirmed cases.

 

[Carp]

[Tw]1259876229429309447[/tw]

We are actually staying home because as a nation we couldn't protect nursing homes.

What an utter disgrace and anyone that supported the extended lockdowns has no clue what they are talking about.

I see you failed to address this, so I'll post again. Even removing all the nursing home deaths in NY state, nearly .1% of the entire population has already died in NY state. It's literally impossible for the IFR to be close to .1%.

 

[thethe]

I see you failed to address this, so I'll post again. Even removing all the nursing home deaths in NY state, nearly .1% of the entire population has already died in NY state. It's literally impossible for the IFR to be close to .1%.

And I've responded to this on numerous occasions.

The blended IFR is a function of how well we protect our most vulnerable.

The idea of everyone being locked down obscures the fact we really only needed to address a subset of the population.

 

[Carp]

Found it:

If you actualy believe 10% hospitalization rate which what we are learning now is a big overstatement. They were used as a placeholder to just complete an analysis.



https://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2020-03/tl-pss_1033020.php

Differences in hospitalisation rates by age were reported, increasing with age - with 11.8% of people in their 60s, 16.6% of people in their 70s, and 18.4% of those in their 80s and above estimated to develop symptoms severe enough for hospitalisation

These hospitalisation rates compare with 0.04% of 10 to 19-year-olds, 1.0% of people in their 20s, and 3.4% of people aged 30 to 39. Hospitalisation rates nearly double from 4.3% in 40-49-year-olds to 8.2% in 50-59-year olds
Nearly one in five over-80s infected with COVID-19 are likely to require hospitalisation, compared with around 1% of people under 30, according to an analysis of 3,665 cases in mainland China, published in The Lancet Infectious Diseases journal.

Stop trying to pretend you know anything about this.

These are also reported cases and therefore the hospitalization rates are much less. May be talking about an aggregate of 2-4% now.

Literally from the same Article:

"The death rate from confirmed COVID-19 cases is estimated at 1.38%, while the overall death rate, which includes unconfirmed cases, is estimated at 0.66%;"

"Previous estimates of deaths from confirmed cases of COVID-19 have ranged from 2% to 8% [5], while deaths from overall infections have been estimated at 0.2% to 1.6%"

I'm well aware and the final talley once we have an antibody test will be on the low end of that scale if not lower.

 

[Carp]

Roughly half the population is either

A. Over 55 or

B. has a medical condition that makes them vulnerable (diabetes, obesity, heart disease, various auto-immune diseases).

I'd say probably half of those over 55 also fall in category B

 

[thethe]

So a large range which they estimated to be somewhere in the midpoint.

If they re did the analysis with mote updated information they'd be much closer to the low end of their range and might even think about adjusting the range to boot.

 

[thethe]

Literally roughly half the population is either over 55 or has a medical condition that makes them vulnerable (diabetes, obesity, heart disease, various auto-immune diseases)

And they should have been the ones we spoke to and addressed.

 

[nsacpi]

the ghoulish economics of valuing a life

https://www.wired.com/story/how-much-is-human-life-worth-in-dollars/

 

[Carp]

So a large range which they estimated to be somewhere in the midpoint.

If they re did the analysis with mote updated information they'd be much closer to the low end of their range and might even think about adjusting the range to boot.

LOL just stop. You've been wrong on this every step of the way. Now, that you've been proven wrong, you've moved the goalposts to blended death rate as if that is relevant (we don't talk about the blended death rate with any other virus).

 

[thethe]

LOL just stop. You've been wrong on this every step of the way. Now, that you've been proven wrong, you've moved the goalposts to blended death rate as if that is relevant (we don't talk about the blended death rate with any other virus).

Oh, you mean back on 3/24 when I said the projections were incredibly wrong?

When I said that extended lock downs were ineffective?

Or how there would be a massive multiple on unreported cases?

Saying I was wrong on a death rate of a couple hundredths of a point is irrelevant because the whole point was that this wasn't a virus that was going to kill millions as you all though stupidly.

And again, just because you don't like the truth why we have an inflated IFR doesn't mean its any less true. If you can't see how we messed up with nursing homes and what that meant to IFR then there is no helping you.

 

[Metaphysicist]

What a massive self-own to preemptively list all the things you've been wrong about.

 

[Carp]

And they should have been the ones we spoke to and addressed.

It is literally impossible to protect half the nation when the other half isn't doing anything to stop the spread.