The Coronavirus, not the beer

The answer is clearly NOT keeping a system that requires constant wearing of a mask. So we can't ignore the problem and act like it has gone away or doesn't exist just because it is inconvenient. Trust me, it is only an inconvenience up to the point that you are shattered by loss. So we fix it. Who wants to be coughed on and sneezed on, anyway?
 
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The high (and deadly) plateau. Its been a while since various states have reopened. Basically, we have stabilized at a high level of infections in most of the country since early April. The downward trend in national numbers is concentrated in four states (NY, NJ, CT, MA). If you are an optimist, you can say the glass is half full.
 
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chop2chip said:
My wife and I have been staying with her family the last month.

Her sister tested positive yesterday and we are all symptomatic and getting tested today.

Fortunate that so far the worst symptoms for everyone have been similar to a bad flu, so hopefully it doesn’t escalate. It’s still early for us.
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I appreciate all of the kind words from you all. Here’s a quick update on our health.

I have been running high fevers consistently the past several days and have had pretty severe body aches. Luckily, my respiratory symptoms have been very mild. This has been the experience of most of the people in our household.

My mother in law has been through hell. She spent the first three days confined to her room and every breath she took sounded like a baby rattle. It was very scary. Yesterday, she passed out in the kitchen which gave everyone a good scare. Thankfully, today she’s had her best day to date. She’s moving around the house and breathing much better.

An interesting learning I want to share. Everyone in our household has been tested with tests coming back positive for everyone but me. My doctor told me the false negative rate for patients who get tested the first couple days of symptoms is 40%. This might be a possible side effect of ease of access to testing.
 
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chop2chip said:
I appreciate all of the kind words from you all. Here’s a quick update on our health.

I have been running high fevers consistently the past several days and have had pretty severe body aches. Luckily, my respiratory symptoms have been very mild. This has been the experience of most of the people in our household.

My mother in law has been through hell. She spent the first three days confined to her room and every breath she took sounded like a baby rattle. It was very scary. Yesterday, she passed out in the kitchen which gave everyone a good scare. Thankfully, today she’s had her best day to date. She’s moving around the house and breathing much better.

An interesting learning I want to share. Everyone in our household has been tested with tests coming back positive for everyone but me. My doctor told me the false negative rate for patients who get tested the first couple days of symptoms is 40%. This might be a possible side effect of ease of access to testing.
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First off, glad you and yours are pulling through. Now on to the 40% false negative...

US total tests: 17,585,923*
Positives: 1,834,806
Negatives: 15,751,117*

15,751,117 x .40 = 6,300,447

If the .40 is correct, that would drop the death rate on the tested to 0.01%

*not sure if tests number has been updated today
 
msstate7 said:
First off, glad you and yours are pulling through. Now on to the 40% false negative...

US total tests: 17,585,923*
Positives: 1,834,806
Negatives: 15,751,117*

15,751,117 x .40 = 6,300,447

If the .40 is correct, that would drop the death rate on the tested to 0.01%

*not sure if tests number has been updated today
Click to expand...

I should clarify. 40% is specific to the swab rest and for day 1 of symptoms.
 
msstate7 said:
First off, glad you and yours are pulling through. Now on to the 40% false negative...

US total tests: 17,585,923*
Positives: 1,834,806
Negatives: 15,751,117*

15,751,117 x .40 = 6,300,447

If the .40 is correct, that would drop the death rate on the tested to 0.01%

*not sure if tests number has been updated today
Click to expand...

Ummm.... You're quite a bit off. 8.1 million cases would put a death rate on the tested at well over 1%
 
If there's a silver lining to the riots, it's going to be a good test case to see how well mask wearing works when people are close together outdoors. If there isn't a large bump in CCP virus cases in certain spots then that would be a good sign that masks work pretty well.
 
weso1 said:
If there's a silver lining to the riots, it's going to be a good test case to see how well mask wearing works when people are close together outdoors. If there isn't a large bump in CCP virus cases in certain spots then that would be a good sign that masks work pretty well.
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so what would constitute proof one way or another of your hypothesis
 
acesfull86 said:
I think it'll be too difficult to say for sure. Too many people without masks, too much sustained contact.
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I think it is a difficult thing to test because of the moving parts...cases seem to be bottoming out already in quite a few places...so if they keep rising in the next few weeks it will be due to a combination of factors...the things that have already caused them to bottom out plus the demonstrations...with respect to the demonstrations, I see quite a few people without masks, so I don't think they are an experiment that will allow us to infer much about the effectiveness of mask wearing...plus as I noted the demonstrations are taking place at a time when cases seem to have already started to rise again in many parts of the country...the national data look like they could be bottoming out too
 
Whether or not a spike occurs and can be tied back to the riots, shaming Karen for putting our grandmas at risk because she wants a haircut is going to ring a little hollow after this.
 
https://www.pennlive.com/opinion/2020/05/lockdown-protesters-have-a-moral-duty-to-forgo-medical-care-in-favor-of-those-who-followed-the-rules-opinion.html

Lockdown protesters have a moral duty to forgo medical care in favor of those who followed the rules | Opinion
Posted May 11, 2020

Across the country, protestors have stormed state capitals demanding a return to business as usual.

Their behavior is dangerous to everyone.

Protesters who violate basic safety measures should, at a minimum, sign a pledge expressing their willingness to forgo scarce care in the name of their political ideals and for the benefit of their fellow Americans. Perhaps the leaders of the protests can set up a website where protesters can publicly attest to the pledge.

....

Yet thousands of protesters appear to lack a full sense of the gravity of this once-in-a-century pandemic, which has crashed across the globe leaving death and battered economies in its wake. Or, they view the economic consequences of social distancing as disproportionate to the health benefits. The protesters fly flags and carry signs accusing their governors of heavy-handedness, of unjustifiably quashing their freedom and limiting their liberty. They interpret statewide restrictions not as essential public health strategies but as unconstitutional assaults on their individual liberty.

The unprecedented public health measures do indeed limit liberty and this does, and should, raise difficult questions about how to balance freedom with other values such as security and health. But during pandemics, where millions of lives are potentially at stake, the balance swings in favor of sensible and temporary restrictions on liberty.

If the protesters can’t be persuaded that they are wrong and their behavior is dangerous, they should own up to their political commitment and sign and carry a. pledge stating they decline all medical care to treat COVID-19, should they fall ill if resources are being rationed. Patrick Henry’s famous proclamation, carried by many protestors, is “give me liberty or give me death” not “give me liberty and if that doesn’t work out so well give me a scarce ventilator.”


https://www.vox.com/first-person/2020/4/25/21234774/coronavirus-covid-19-protest-anti-lockdown

Last weekend, thousands gathered in Washington, Michigan, Texas, Maryland, and California to protest lockdown orders resulting from the coronavirus pandemic. Some marched with rifles draped across their backs and handguns resting on their hips, while others shared conspiracy theories about Bill Gates and his involvement with the Covid-19 vaccine.

Even in larger, less-rural cities in California, groups waved “Trump 2020” flags and marched the streets with signs that read, “No Liberty. No Life.” And these protests only seem to be picking up steam: On Friday, thousands stormed the Wisconsin State Capitol, carrying flags and wearing Tea Party regalia.

But what has been most glaringly obvious about these protests isn’t the far-right theatrics. It’s that almost everyone marching to end stay-at-home orders is white. And if they do return to “regular life” and refuse to distance themselves, their overt disregard will impact the population most vulnerable to the virus — black people.
 
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