The Coronavirus, not the beer

nsacpi said:
As I noted earlier, the big question is whether the large increases in infections among young people eventually seep their way into older more vulnerable populations.

Deaths are going to rise even if the answer is no. But it will be a muted rise.

If the answer is yes deaths are going back to over 1,000 per day in July. I think that is the more likely outcome. >30,000 deaths in July.
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That sounds about right -- hopefully not, but...
 
BedellBrave said:
Thanks goldie. Going to try and "visit" my 95 year-old "success" story today. She's now failing quickly. Hoping she has enough wherewithal to talk to me on the phone as I stand outside her window. If she doesn't make it, she will be the third friend to die.

Part of the reason I've got such a large group is due to my travels. Friends all over the world -- Pakistan, Turkey, France, Spain, UK.
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I hope your friend pulls through. I thought she had recovered.

My mother has a 95 year old friend who has been living independently in her own house. She volunteered at a hospital into her 90s. The time has finally arrived where she just can't take care of herself and she will be soon moving to a nursing home. Her mind is still very sharp, but she needs an attendant. She is just terrified of what awaits her. The social isolation more than getting sick.
 
nsacpi said:
I hope your friend pulls through. I thought she managed to pull through.

My mother has a 95 year old friend who has been living independently in her own house. The time has finally arrived where she just can't take care of herself and she will be soon moving to a nursing home. Her mind is still very sharp, but she needs an attendant. She is just terrified of what awaits her. The social isolation more than getting sick.
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Thanks friend. She had -- as far as getting "negative" test results. Afraid though that the ordeal of having gone through it and the continued isolation (no one can go in to see her) though have broken her spirit. I hate the attitude, "well it's mainly just old folks in nursing homes and they are going to die anyway." Up until last year this sweet lady was out in her yard everyday maintaining an perfectly manicured lawn and flowers. This past year in her transition to a nursing home, I enjoyed taking her Chick-fil-A sandwiches, talking about family, holding her hand and praying. It's all so personal.
 
nsacpi said:
Has the school shared its plan for the fall?
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Yep, starting back up. Reduced class sizes. Mandatory wearing of masks. Use of an Oxford model of small groups of students meeting regularly with profs. I like the latter. Our main concerns are her inevitable need to use the subway extensively, living in a locked-down NYC (kind of defeats the beauty of studying/living there), and the potential for further social unrest. Got to pull the trigger on our final decision within a week or so.
 
BedellBrave said:
Yep, starting back up. Reduced class sizes. Mandatory wearing of masks. Use of an Oxford model of small groups of students meeting regularly with profs. I like the latter. Our main concerns are her inevitable need to use the subway extensively, living in a locked-down NYC (kind of defeats the beauty of studying/living there), and the potential for further social unrest. Got to pull the trigger on our final decision within a week or so.
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I think the subway risk should be mitigated by the mandatory mask wearing. Trains are being disinfected daily. Stations twice a day.
 
msstate7 said:
Your wiki site has 24,835 total NY deaths. NY times and worldometers disagree... both have over 31k deaths.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/new-york-coronavirus-cases.html
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that difference reflects the attributed deaths that occur outside hospitals

the difference from the past week makes no sense...your source simply has the wrong data...I have no idea where those numbers come from...my numbers come from the state of New York....they reported 5 deaths yesterday, 16 the day before, etc
 
How much longer will the panic crowd continue to show they don't understand data and science?

How will they rationalize a non material dpike in daily deaths?
 
nsacpi said:
that difference reflects the attributed deaths that occur outside hospitals

the difference from the past week makes no sense...your source simply has the wrong data...I have no idea where those numbers come from...my numbers come from the state of New York....they reported 5 deaths yesterday, 16 the day before, etc
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https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/us-data/

They include the probable deaths reported by NY every day per CDC guidelines
 
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Are probabale deaths now irrelevant because it hurts the leftist talking points? Have we come full circle?

Please tell me its this comical...
 
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msstate7 said:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/us-data/

They include the probable deaths reported by NY every day per CDC guidelines
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As long as it is apples to apples I'm fine with the data. So do they include probable deaths for other states? If not it becomes an apples to oranges comparison.

I'm curious about where the probable deaths data for June 28 comes from. Did some government health agency report 27 probable deaths in NY on June 28? Or is this some sort of estimated number? What were probable deaths for the other states (Texas, Florida and Arizona) on June 28?
 
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nsacpi said:
As long as it is apples to apples I'm fine with the data. So do they include probable deaths for other states? If not it becomes an apples to oranges comparison.

I'm curious about where the probable deaths data for June 28 comes from. Did some government health agency report 27 probable deaths in NY on June 28? Or is this some sort of estimated number? What were probable deaths for the other states (Texas, Florida and Arizona) on June 28?
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No idea. I was interested in the different reported numbers, so I read through their notes
 
msstate7 said:
No idea. I was interested in the different reported numbers, so I read through their notes
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It seems to me that the data you are using might include probable deaths for NY, but not probable deaths for other states. Which might be why some people mistakenly make the claim that deaths in NY have continued to be higher when in fact they have been significantly lower than in Arizona, Florida and Texas in the past week.
 
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