The Gospel According to one of the Johns

ugh.. why does Bobby have to be all in next year.. JS needs to 'empower' Hart and Coppy and let those two handle it. Cox needs to stay away.. and stop trying to save Frediot's job..
 
Yeah I love Bobby but his time has came and gone. He needs to hang it up and let the team be ran without any buddy ball feelings.
 
I don't really like the answer about what the team will look like in 2016. Sounds like a tepid commitment towards the total overhaul undertaken last off-season (which I think can be justified). I don't mind if it takes a couple of extra years, but I want the foundation of the franchise solidified and back on track and I felt some of what Wren did eroded the foundation appreciably. I think Horsehide Harry and I are somewhat on the same page on this, except I simply cannot stand having the kind of bullpen we've had this season. I don't mind losing if it leads to something, but how a team loses is important to me. Outside of flashes from Jace Peterson and Hector Olivera in the field and Wisler, Miller, and Vizcaino on the mound, we haven't seen much in terms of development this season.
 
50PoundHead said:
I don't really like the answer about what the team will look like in 2016. Sounds like a tepid commitment towards the total overhaul undertaken last off-season (which I think can be justified). I don't mind if it takes a couple of extra years, but I want the foundation of the franchise solidified and back on track and I felt some of what Wren did eroded the foundation appreciably. I think Horsehide Harry and I are somewhat on the same page on this, except I simply cannot stand having the kind of bullpen we've had this season. I don't mind losing if it leads to something, but how a team loses is important to me. Outside of flashes from Jace Peterson and Hector Olivera in the field and Wisler, Miller, and Vizcaino on the mound, we haven't seen much in terms of development this season.
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The thing that I think they are struggling with is how to explain to the fans that the most promising talent is 17-18 and years from the major leagues. The talent brought in from the trades (as opposed to the 2015 draft and international signings) is older but generally not going to move the needle much for the major league team. There may be some exceptions (Wisler, maybe Mallex Smith, Peterson and Olivera) but not enough to get us to more than "palatable" in 2016 and 2017. Presumably 2017 will be a bit more palatable due to a bigger budget. But it won't be until 2018 or later before the young guns start to have an impact at the major league level. Our front office, however, has sold the narrative that the sacrifices of 2015 has "accelerated" the rebuild. I think they face a public relations challenge trying to maintain that narrative.
 
I they'll make a big signing this year that will help accelerate things and calm down the fan base at the same time.
 
nsacpi said:
Our front office, however, has sold the narrative that the sacrifices of 2015 has "accelerated" the rebuild. I think they face a public relations challenge trying to maintain that narrative.
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Some of this stuff is just semantics, but I absolutely think the decision to get in front of this process last Fall has accelerated the rebuild. I don't find that assertion by JS controversial.
 
I wouldn't worry too much about the pen next year. it should be much better than this year. One aspect is that Frediot wont have Avilan to go to..

But we have Simmons returning, Winkler emerging, Withrow and Paco from the Dodgers who should be good, Vizciano and Grilli when he returns should provide some solid late inning relief. then take your pick of Burawa or Marksberry or possibly Molan for mop up work and you have a pretty good 7 man pen.. Maybe go with 8, not sure.

You could also possibly see the Braves getting another veteran starter and if no one is moved that would leave you Miller/Julio/wisler/New guy/Perez/Folty/ManBAn that is seven guys. I think ManBan needs to be in AAA to start year, keep a watch on him to not hurt his arm. That leaves you Folty or Perez as another Pen option.. Folty being the logical choice. That is assuming he is healthy from this blood clot issue.
 
dak said:
Some of this stuff is just semantics, but I absolutely think the decision to get in front of this process last Fall has accelerated the rebuild. I don't find that assertion by JS controversial.
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I think having a very high pick in 2016 will definitely help. But there is a public relations issue. Accelerate appears to mean improve our chances in 2018 and beyond. I think the process is going to be longer than many fans expect. Some of this the club can't do anything about. But it did contribute by linking the rebuild with having a dynamic contending team in place for the opening of the new stadium in 2017.
 
bravesfanMatt said:
I wouldn't worry too much about the pen next year. it should be much better than this year. One aspect is that Frediot wont have Avilan to go to..

But we have Simmons returning, Winkler emerging, Withrow and Paco from the Dodgers who should be good, Vizciano and Grilli when he returns should provide some solid late inning relief. then take your pick of Burawa or Marksberry or possibly Molan for mop up work and you have a pretty good 7 man pen.. Maybe go with 8, not sure.

You could also possibly see the Braves getting another veteran starter and if no one is moved that would leave you Miller/Julio/wisler/New guy/Perez/Folty/ManBAn that is seven guys. I think ManBan needs to be in AAA to start year, keep a watch on him to not hurt his arm. That leaves you Folty or Perez as another Pen option.. Folty being the logical choice. That is assuming he is healthy from this blood clot issue.
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ManBan is out of options. Chances are he'll be in the major league pen next year.
 
it really bugs me when people think a trade was a success or failure based on 1 years performance. We all remember CJ as the greatest 'throw in' because of his great year in 13... but others said even before 2014 to hold your horses that CJ is not that good.

Those trades made last year need time to develop. Rio has potential. Folty has potential. Wisler, Jenkins, Fried, ManBan, Jace all have great upsides.. Some of these guys will be ready for 2017 others will be used as trade bait for 2017 or to replenish the farm system. Hart has also taken many lottery ticket type players and cashed them into future prospects. I am sorry Gomes for a 22 year old SS that is hitting +.350... that was a good flip.. Uribe and KJ rentals for Gant and Whalen..another potential win regardless how they pan out.

this year is not indicative of what Hart is doing. We had so many guys that played who have no barring on 2017 or even 2016.. these rotating pitchers out of the Pen will never dawn a Braves uni again. Sure the offense needs to improve, but hopefully HO and Jace will have good years.. We should have another piece in Center at some point...and maybe CB (if Frediot ever gives him a chance) can show he can hit or we will get a catcher another way. Be patient and let the pieces fall into place before saying the braves won't be competitive in 2017...
 
The vision that JS and the leadership team have for the club, as I understand it, is to build a perennial contender. If that is in fact the goal, I believe the work that has been done starting last Fall has accelerated our ability to realize that outcome. To put it another way, I think we'll field a contending team before any of the talent we added in the 2015 amateur draft or international signing period reaches the majors.
 
I expect .500 or maybe less next year and much better record in 2017.. But I agree with the fact that beyond 2017, the Braves will always have a stocked farm system.
 
Some of this discussion turns on the definition of "contending team." I would say the outlook for 2016 is for a team that is in the 75-80 range for expected wins. Now every year there are some teams that out-perform projections by 5 or even more wins. So we could finish slightly above .500 in 2016. Would that meet the definition of a contending team.

In 2017, I think the bigger budget will get us a team that is in the 80-85 range for expected wins.
 
dak said:
The vision that JS and the leadership team have for the club, as I understand it, is to build a perennial contender.
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That's a vision I find quite appealing. I'd rather have a team that is perennially in the 80-85 range for expected wins than one where the roster is constructed in such a way that it clearly is unlikely to contend some years. I realize you'll have bad luck some years. But what I'm talking about is a team constructed in such a way that it needs exceptional good luck to be a .500 team.
 
nsacpi said:
ManBan is out of options. Chances are he'll be in the major league pen next year.
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I think I see why... he was on the 40 man roster for the Yanks in 13 and 14, thus using his other two options. Kind of retarded that injury years still use options. He really needs time in the minors to get consistent work...
 
nsacpi said:
The thing that I think they are struggling with is how to explain to the fans that the most promising talent is 17-18 and years from the major leagues. The talent brought in from the trades (as opposed to the 2015 draft and international signings) is older but generally not going to move the needle much for the major league team. There may be some exceptions (Wisler, maybe Mallex Smith, Peterson and Olivera) but not enough to get us to more than "palatable" in 2016 and 2017. Presumably 2017 will be a bit more palatable due to a bigger budget. But it won't be until 2018 or later before the young guns start to have an impact at the major league level. Our front office, however, has sold the narrative that the sacrifices of 2015 has "accelerated" the rebuild. I think they face a public relations challenge trying to maintain that narrative.
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Succinctly said and what contributes to the fans' impression is the way we have been losing. Nothing deflates a team like a bad bullpen. Makes everyone lethargic and fatalistic. If we were losing due to stupid rookie aggressiveness, that would be one thing, but our gas truck of a bullpen has too often turned a campfire into a full-blown four-alarm conflagration.

I use the Twins as a reference a lot and we may be in the same situation. Twins are on the cusp of the playoffs (and would probably be in the playoffs had Ryan made a couple of moves beyond Jepsen to help the bullpen), but they are coming off 4 90-plus loss seasons after winning 94 in 2010. Gardenhire and then-GM Bill Smith were big parts of the problem, because they over-estimated "playing the right way" over talent. They made some really lousy trades. Hung on to guys like Pavano because they "threw strikes" and neglected the quality of the strikes. They threw guys like Pedro Floriman, Chris Parmalee (who was a first-round pick), a deteriorating Josh Willingham, Clete Thomas, and Jamey Carroll out there, turned on the PR machine, and told fans, "Hey, we can win with these guys!"

What's put them where they are now is that they drafted well (Dozier, Rosario, Hicks, Gibson, Buxton, Berrios on the way) and mined Latin America aggressively (particularly Sano with some other prospects on the way) and let those guys take some lumps and grow into big league players. They also went out and got starting pitching (Santana, Hughes, Milone) They still invest too much in guys like Suzuki and somehow Doug Bernier gets a call-up every September to reinforce the "play the right way" mantra. It also has to be pointed out that Eduardo Escobar has really developed as a hitter.

I don't want the Braves to fall into the same trap as the wilderness version of the Twins. It does start with pitching and I think the Triple J Ranch has done a decent job rounding up enough arms to field a decent starting rotation. The expected returns of Withrow and Rodriguez should help the bullpen. Then we have to turn to the offense and there are a lot of ways to produce runs, although power is always the preferred method. That's going to be the challenge and I don't know if things will get appreciably better for us on offense in the short-term. Freeman is solid and I think Olivera can be decent. AJ produces with the oddest approach in baseball and Markakis gets on base (if not much else). But other than that, things look dicey. We will certainly have to see what happens in the off-season, but the acquisition of Bourn and Swisher still has me scratching my head because I don't think they do much to help us in 2016 if we intend on being better and we've assumed more in terms of contract than we discarded with the departure of Chris Johnson. They are off the books in 2017 (and Johnson wasn't), but that trade contradicts their stated intention of being more competitive in 2016 (at least to me).
 
bravesfanMatt said:
Hmm, I wasn't aware of that. I haven't found anything saying he is out of options next year. I thought this year was his only year he used an option?
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The Yankees first added him to their 40 man roster in late 2012. They optioned him down in both 2013 and 2014. We used up the third option this year.
 
the way I see the Bourn and Swisher trade is moving money owed from 17 to 2016. The Tribe sent 10 million to the Braves to take the 28 million owed to Bourn and Swisher. That basically washes the contracts.. But it is money spent.. you were going to spend 18 million regardless if you spend it all in 16 or break it up over two years. However, I think Hart is thinking that Bourn and Swisher are going to be a lot easier to move at the 2016 deadline than CJ would be able to move. So now you can flip Bourn and Swisher next July for prospects.. CJ might be able to be moved as a rental but it would have been 2017 and they didn't want CJ splitting time with anyone in 2017.. Bourn and Swisher will get playing time next year because, even though we should be better, it is still not the year we want to compete.. So an objective next year is to build enough value in Swisher and Bourn to move them at the deadline while also staying away from the 500 ABs auto renewal in each of their contracts.
 
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