The great folty vs Newcomb debate

msstate7

msstate7

Well-known member
Folty (5 starts)
11.42 k9, 4.50 bb9, 2.77 era, 3.75 FIP, 0.3 fWAR, .295 babip

Newcomb (5 starts)
11.06 k9, 4.55 bb9, 4.23 era, 3.65 FIP, 0.4 fWAR, .343 babip
 
nsacpi said:
squint...not much to choose from based on the data
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Obviously still a SSS, but fWAR likes Newcomb more. Over 30 starts, folty would be 1.6 fWAR, and Newcomb would be 2.4 fWAR. This is in line with their careers so far.
 
Newk hanging out just below the magic 5.0 BB/9 line.

Question for Enscheff or other more statistically knowledgeable posters. If Newk could sustain the slight improvement over a significant sample and maintain a 4.5 BB/9 or thereabouts, does that significantly change his expected career outcome or his comps? Or would he still be in fringe starter/ reliever territory? Maybe a better question is, where does his BB/9 need to be before his projectable outcome is more in line with what the Braves need out of him?

Before we give up on him either way, I'd like to see if a change from a pitching coach whose calling card seems to be teaching guys how to increase their walk totals would help.
 
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Both are MLB starting pitchers. Both are maddening. Both will probably never be great even though Their stuff is very good. If they can improve their command/control the would be very good, although unlikely at this point significantly.
 
jpack1 said:
Both are MLB starting pitchers. Both are maddening. Both will probably never be great even though Their stuff is very good. If they can improve their command/control the would be very good, although unlikely at this point significantly.
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that about sums it up
 
If not for the two-out, three-run homer by Votto yesterday, Newk’s ERA would be around 2.90 or so. It happens. Both guys need to get those walks down, though.
 
DirkPiggler said:
Newk hanging out just below the magic 5.0 BB/9 line.

Question for Enscheff or other more statistically knowledgeable posters. If Newk could sustain the slight improvement over a significant sample and maintain a 4.5 BB/9 or thereabouts, does that significantly change his expected career outcome or his comps? Or would he still be in fringe starter/ reliever territory? Maybe a better question is, where does his BB/9 need to be before his projectable outcome is more in line with what the Braves need out of him?

Before we give up on him either way, I'd like to see if a change from a pitching coach whose calling card seems to be teaching guys how to increase their walk totals would help.
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As is Newk is a lot like Folty in that he would be a back end "stuff" guy. To be what we want he is going to have to get that BB/9 under 4 at the least.
 
Folty would benefit from a new pitching coach that could help him figure out a different approach because the approach he has is not working and never has been at the major league level. He consistently gets hit hard the third time through.

Newcomb seems like he has a mechanical issue that causes him to miss armside at times with the drop of a hat.
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
Folty would benefit from a new pitching coach that could help him figure out a different approach because the approach he has is not working and never has been at the major league level. He consistently gets hit hard the third time through.

Newcomb seems like he has a mechanical issue that causes him to miss armside at times with the drop of a hat.
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We need a new pitching coach period.

I was not a fan of Mazzone, but over the years I began to appreciate his approach. He would have them both in fetal position now begging him not to tear them apart.
 
Based on xwOBA, Newk has been quite a bit better than Folty.

Folty 0.319 (basically a league average #4 SP)
Newk 0.290 (a legit #3)

While Newk's 4.5 BB rate is still bad, it is an improvement over 5. If the control continues to improve faster than his stuff declines, the Braves have a solid MOR SP on their hands.
 
Enscheff said:
Based on xwOBA, Newk has been quite a bit better than Folty.

Folty 0.319 (basically a league average #4 SP)
Newk 0.290 (a legit #3)

While Newk's 4.5 BB rate is still bad, it is an improvement over 5. If the control continues to improve faster than his stuff declines, the Braves have a solid MOR SP on their hands.
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Yeah. It’s mostly like getting it under 5 that converts him to borderline MOR. Above 5 is definite 4/5 starter range. Under 3.5/4 is probably close to a 2 but also basically impossible
 
Not surprised the stats back up that newk is better. It's pretty clear to me when I watch.
 
Fried doesn't have much hope as a starter, or pitcher at all in the majors because of how straight his fastball is. A "well located fastball" at 90-92 can be hit by anyone.
 
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