Especially given our rosters in recent years. I'm all for trading for an ace in a year or two to supplement team that's a world series caliber team with few holes, because competitive windows can open and close quick (look at the Mets). But trading for an ace now the offseason is not a good move, imo.
The great folty vs Newcomb debate
- Thread starter msstate7
- Start date
Especially given our rosters in recent years. I'm all for trading for an ace in a year or two to supplement team that's a world series caliber team with few holes, because competitive windows can open and close quick (look at the Mets). But trading for an ace now the offseason is not a good move, imo.
Agree 100%
AerchAngel
<B>Secretary of Statistics</B>
I hope he isn't hurt.
UNCBlue012
Well-known member
I was on the Newk train for most of the year but I'm thinking it's about time to jump over to the Folty bandwagon. lol
Deester11
Well-known member
I’ve been a big Folty doubter. Still am but I don’t ever deny when strides are made. He’s done that. I still think a lefty with Newks stuff is the way to go. He doesn’t get hit hard he just loses command. He’s my guy though.
AerchAngel
<B>Secretary of Statistics</B>
Don't agree but that is my opinion and no disrespect to you at all. You have your horse, I have mine. All is fair.
Folty, like the announcers said, is getting it. They never said that with Newk becuase they have doubts, which is understandable. But he can figure it out.
Folty issue was maturity. He got squeezed this game but overcame it and was filthy in doing so and had a very nice pitch count when he couldn't pitch anymore. A great sign, even better he could make his next start.
If I were a team I would rather face Newk than Folty 10 out of 10, his stuff can be really nasty if he is on. Schwerzer like. NOT COMPARING HIM TO HIM.
So does DeGrom’s. Hope it starts today.
Folty has since improved his BB rate to 4.04, with a mark of 2.9 since this quoted post.
Newk now has a HR/9 of 0.68 (8.3% HR/FB), with a mark of 0.8 (9.1% HR/FB) since this quoted post. I suspect there is still a bit of room for regression.
Newk has spent 7 months at the MLB level, compiling 35 starts (just a bit more than a full season). Here are his HR/FB rates as well as his wOBA each month of his MLB career:
June 2017 - 4.8%, .242 wOBA
July 2017 - 16.7%, .388 wOBA
Aug 2017 - 17.2%, .373 wOBA
Sept 2017 - 0.0%, .308 wOBA
April 2018 - 12.5%, .320 wOBA
May 2018 - 0.0%, .218 wOBA
June 2018 - 14.2%, .294 wOBA
Notice how strongly his wOBA correlates to his luck on HR/FB?
Now, after seeing this same phenomenon in action with MAdams, Albies and Newk, have we learned anything about HR/FB rates yet? How many more times are folks going to argue when we point out that success based on unsustainable BABIP, HR/FB or LOB rates is unlikely to continue?
GovClintonTyree
<B>Vencer a Los Doyers</B>
The other night SAV and I went to the Mariners game since his current student lives in the Seattle area. We agreed that your analysis is special. Spot on.
We also agreed that if you just eliminated the last paragraph from every post, you'd be a lot more effective and less....despised. But hey, you may be working something out.
Only thing I'm trying to work out is your power projection for Albies...
Can you please help me out with another bit of knowledge like last time?
GovClintonTyree
<B>Vencer a Los Doyers</B>
Oh, Nick.
How's this. Albies leads the National League in extra base hits with 46. Of those, he's hit all 17 homers and the vast majority of the others in the air.
...that’s not a projection....
No wonder you couldn’t pass the bar to be a real lawyer. Reading comprehension...get some.
GovClintonTyree
<B>Vencer a Los Doyers</B>
Ok.
From now until the end of his career, virtually all of his home runs will be in the air.
Once again, it's that last darn paragraph.
A little past the half way mark, Newk is projected to finish the season with 170 IP and ~2 WAR. His FIP and xFIP have regressed to 4+, his HR/9 is right at 0.9, and his HR/FB rate at 10%+. His BABIP of .262 is still a bit low, suggesting a bit more regression is coming.
Do you know what we call a ~2 win SP that tosses 150-180 innings? A #4.
Meanwhile, Folty is projecting to about 3 WAR with an FIP/xFIP under 3.5, and his BB rate has regressed even further to 3.79. He still has a bit of regression left in that 9.9% HR/FB rate and 0.76 HR/9 rate, but the added Ks have helped lower is overall HR/9...possibly below 1. That 81% LOB rate is also unlikely to stay that high, which will ding his ERA a bit.
Last edited:
zbhargrove
Well-known member
Hard to ignore how well you've analyzed this situation.
msstate7
Well-known member
Do you not think his k rate will regress? He hasn't struck out over 9 per 9 at any point in his career over a full season
msstate7
Well-known member
Folty...
646.1 milb ip
477.2 mlb ip
1,124.0 total ip
Newcomb...
348.1 milb ip
197.1 mlb ip
545.2 total ip [if college is included (165.0 ip), 710.2 total ip]