The Political Calculus

nsacpi said:
“If you can replicate his draw amongst rural, working-class voters without the insanity, you have a permanent governing majority,” said Josh Holmes, a top adviser to McConnell.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/poli...e4aea0-5289-11eb-bda4-615aaefd0555_story.html

For anyone inclined to put a charitable gloss on the Republicans unwillingness to impeach and otherwise hold people responsible for the events of January 6, Mr. Holmes has laid it out.

Impeachment is tied up to a political calculation. The Democrats want to make make Republicans go on the record. Do they stand with the big lie and the base that has come to believe so fervently in it? Or do they alienate the base by acknowledging the truth and holding those who perpetrated an attack on democracy to account? It is a tough choice from a political perspective. But not from an ethical one. Of course we know which way most politicians will go in that kind of situation. "They" are anyone not deemed a "real American".

However, I would also make an observation to my old party. You may think after very poorly chosen one is out of office that passions will cool and that you can pivot back to respectability and respect for the rule of law and all that jazz. But every day you wait is going to make this pivot back to respectability more difficult. Seize this opportunity to do so. Impeach very poorly chosen one. Expel Hawley from your caucus. Be bold. Do the right thing. If you don't the ranks of the Hawleys and Marjorie Taylor Greenes will just keep growing. It is later in the day than you realize.
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Holmes is wrong.

What he calls "rural, working-class voters" are actually "low skilled white voters scared about losing their socioeconomic power to non-whites". Nobody can play on those fears and galvanize the support Trump has without demonizing "them". "They" are the non-whites taking jobs for low pay. "They" are the non-whites gaining political power as demographics shift. "They" are the elites making a living from modern skills rather than low skilled labor. "They" are the members of the gays/trans communities getting equal rights.

Trump's base adores him because he embraces the complaints of the downtrodden white person who is losing the only shred of power they have: white privilege. The prospect of that privilege going away is terrifying to these people who literally have nothing else going for them. Low skilled rural whites understand the moment that privilege goes away, they are nothing more than the very people they look down upon and treated so poorly. So it is literally impossible to play to those fears without demonizing the people they are afraid of.

Trumpism is white grievance politics, period.
 
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Enscheff said:
Holmes is wrong.

What he calls "rural, working-class voters" are actually "low skilled white voters scared about losing their socioeconomic power to non-whites". Nobody can play on those fears and galvanize the support Trump has without demonizing "them". "They" are the non-whites taking jobs for low pay. "They" are the non-whites gaining political power as demographics shift. "They" are the elites making a living from modern skills rather than low skilled labor. "They" are the members of the gays/trans communities getting equal rights.

Trump's base adores him because he embraces the complaints of the downtrodden white person who is losing the only shred of power they have: white privilege. The prospect of that privilege going away is terrifying to these people who literally have nothing else going for them. Low skilled rural whites understand the moment that privilege goes away, they are nothing more than the very people they look down upon and treated so poorly. So it is literally impossible to play to those fears without demonizing the people they are afraid of.

Trumpism is white grievance politics, period.
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As a share of total voters, it is in small rural counties that you will the most voters who are part of the base. But those counties are very sparsely populated. A large part of the maga base is in the suburbs and cities. Our neighbors. Some very well educated and successful in their careers (you could find CEOs, business owners, lawyers and medical doctors among those who invaded the Capitol). I think it is a mistake to oversimplify who the maga base is. There are a lot of feeble-minded losers. But I don't think they are the majority.

My own anecdote about this is a friend who I mentored over 10 years ago inviting me to the Harvard Club in New York for lunch a couple years ago. I thought she wanted career advice or something. But she spent most of the lunch raving about very poorly chosen one and how people didn't get him and how brilliant he was. I was flabbergasted.

I do think it is worth digging a bit deeper (and law enforcement will have to do that) to identify the insurrectionists, which is a sub-group within the maga base. There is a larger more passive group that isn't committed to insurrectionist activity. But by now it is clear the insurrectionists are a large enough group to worry about. And the non-insurrectionists seem happy for the most part to provide an ocean within which the insurrectionists can swim undetected.
 
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mqt said:
I know this wasn’t the actual point, but I disagree. At some point, someone is going to figure out a way to mobilize people in both rural and urban areas and that would be the path forward. Given that a lot of the societal problems we have are pretty universal, I’m surprised it hasn’t already happened.
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No one else is having a good time with nsacpi and I on the third party thread, but I seriously believe a Christian-Democratic platform like the American Solidarity Party has would dominate.
 
Jaw said:
No one else is having a good time with nsacpi and I on the third party thread, but I seriously believe a Christian-Democratic platform like the American Solidarity Party has would dominate.
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You watch tulsi gabbard on Dave Rubin from last week? Must watch. If she put an R beside her name she’d be golden
 
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nsacpi said:
As a share of total voters, it is in small rural counties that you will the most voters who are part of the base. But those counties are very sparsely populated. A large part of the maga base is in the suburbs and cities. Our neighbors. Some very well educated and successful in their careers (you could find CEOs, business owners, lawyers and medical doctors among those who invaded the Capitol). I think it is a mistake to oversimplify who the maga base is. There are a lot of feeble-minded losers. But I don't think they are the majority.

My own anecdote about this is a friend who I mentored over 10 years ago inviting me to the Harvard Club in New York for lunch a couple years ago. I thought she wanted career advice or something. But she spent most of the lunch raving about very poorly chosen one and how people didn't get him and how brilliant he was. I was flabbergasted.

I do think it is worth digging a bit deeper (and law enforcement will have to do that) to identify the insurrectionists, which is a sub-group within the maga base. There is a larger more passive group that isn't committed to insurrectionist activity. But by now it is clear the insurrectionists are a large enough group to worry about. And the non-insurrectionists seem happy for the most part to provide an ocean within which the insurrectionists can swim undetected.
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Firstly, Holmes was talking about rural working class voters. My response was in reference to that voting bloc.

No matter what anecdotes folks toss out there, Trumps bread and butter base is “white male no college”. While conservatives of all stripes will support Trump for many reasons, the fact remains Trumpism is very simply white grievance populist politics. Everything we are seeing is the last desperate gasp of the former ruling class.

That’s literally what MAGA means...revert back to when whites held all the power. It’s not even thinly veiled...it’s blatant. Attempts at putting someone down by saying things like “doesn’t know what to bathroom to use” are obvious examples.
 
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Enscheff said:
Holmes is wrong.

What he calls "rural, working-class voters" are actually "low skilled white voters scared about losing their socioeconomic power to non-whites". Nobody can play on those fears and galvanize the support Trump has without demonizing "them". "They" are the non-whites taking jobs for low pay. "They" are the non-whites gaining political power as demographics shift. "They" are the elites making a living from modern skills rather than low skilled labor. "They" are the members of the gays/trans communities getting equal rights.

Trump's base adores him because he embraces the complaints of the downtrodden white person who is losing the only shred of power they have: white privilege. The prospect of that privilege going away is terrifying to these people who literally have nothing else going for them. Low skilled rural whites understand the moment that privilege goes away, they are nothing more than the very people they look down upon and treated so poorly. So it is literally impossible to play to those fears without demonizing the people they are afraid of.

Trumpism is white grievance politics, period.
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I think you give many of these people too much credit to think that intellectually. I think most of it is just good old fashioned racism that has been seeded into society for centuries.
 
word is she would have lost her house seat and presidential run was to promote her brand.
Hmmm where have we heard that before

who says I never criticize a (D) ?
 
Krgrecw said:
You watch tulsi gabbard on Dave Rubin from last week? Must watch. If she put an R beside her name she’d be golden
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Yeah, pro-choice, pro-stimulus, acknowledges the problems of institutional racism, supports same sex marriage, Supports gay rights, believes and wants to enforce against gender pay gap, abolish death penalty, abolish for profit prisons, end war on drugs, legalize weed, free college tuition, ban fracking. Medicare for all

Yeah seems like a perfect R
 
Dave Wasserman
@Redistrict
·
3m
2020 presidential results Rep. Liz Cheney (R)'s Wyoming:

Trump 193,559 (69.9%)
Biden 73,491 (26.6%)
 
"There has never been a greater betrayal by a President of the United States of his office and his oath to the Constitution," Cheney said in a statement.

sums it up
 
I wouldn’t say that all of Trump’s voters are the rural types. A lot likely are, considering that he had a populist like draw for rural people that made them turn out in droves, but you also likely have a lot that are very successful people in life, some that might not even like Trump’s games, but voted for him with a held nose because they preferred a GOP agenda, like tax cuts (with the wealthier people), although I’ve also heard that there are apparently doctors/lawyers that have bought that the election was stolen.

This does bring up an interesting dilemma that I was thinking about this afternoon while I was out and about. Memories might fade by then, but I don’t think running the right-wing populism playbook would win back the suburbs as of right now (and the suburban population is a lot more likely to show up to vote than the rural population), but at the same time, running a guy that might be more a center-right Republican (like a Ben Sasse or Larry Hogan), might not allow you to run up HUGE totals in the rurals. The next Republican candidate for president is going to have to figure out a way to straddle the line with the suburban and rural population, and the suburban and rural people that are more to the right (in varying forms) freaking HATE each other right now lmao.
 
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