The Reverse Pennant Chase

The Twins are not letting up though. As iffy as our pitching has been, the Twins collection of Ervin Santana and a band of roving gypsies has to be the worst in the bigs.
 
Arizona and San Diego both won yesterday, so they are now the teams closest to us and are still six games away.
 
Arizona and San Diego both won yesterday, so they are now the teams closest to us and are still six games away.

Yeah, to 2 is essentially assured.

I still think we have a decent shot at that #1 pick. I think the FO secretly hopes we get the #1 pick without losing 100 games. That will be tough.
 
16 games left to play. Magic number for the Braves to have a Top 2 pick is 11. (Did I do that math right?)
 
16 games left to play. Magic number for the Braves to have a Top 2 pick is 11. (Did I do that math right?)

11 is correct but only because of the Reds (who hold the tie breaker over us). If the Braves lose and Red win tonight then the magic number goes to 9 regardless of what the other teams do. If the Pads and Dbags win as well it would go to 8.

right now, we are guaranteed at least the 13th pick. A loss tonight would slide us to no worse than 11th pick
 
After game on 9/16

Twins 55 93 -
Braves 56 91 1.5 GB
D'backs 62 85 7.5 GB
Padres 62 85 7.5 GB
Reds 62 84 8.0 GB
Angels 63 84 8.5 GB
Rays 63 84 8.5 GB
A's 64 83 9.5 GB
Brewers 66 82 11.0 GB
Phillies 66 82 11.0 GB
 
At this point with just 15 games remaining, while it is still remotely possible we could pick lower than the 2 slot, the chances of that are now quite slim. So it really comes down to us and the Twins fighting for picks 1 and 2 in next year's draft. Since we own the tie breaker and are now only 1 1/2 back, it may come down to the wire.
 
Unless we went on a long winning streak and everybody else lost we are pretty much guaranteed the #2 pick at this point.
 
Reds are doing their best to claim the second slot. They will be three games behind us after tonight's action. The Twins continue to pad their lead.
 
Just four days ago we had a real shot at getting the #1 pick, and very little chance of slipping down any worse than #2. However after these last 4 wins in a row, the #1 pick is now almost out of reach, and dropping to the #3, #4 or #5 slot is a very real possibility. Drives me nuts, 2 years in a row, we suck like hell all year, and then go on a winning streak right at the end of the year in meaningless games and worsen our draft position.
 
Just four days ago we had a real shot at getting the #1 pick, and very little chance of slipping down any worse than #2. However after these last 4 wins in a row, the #1 pick is now almost out of reach, and dropping to the #3, #4 or #5 slot is a very real possibility. Drives me nuts, 2 years in a row, we suck like hell all year, and then go on a winning streak right at the end of the year in meaningless games and worsen our draft position.

Gee, that sucks. Sure hope there's no one available at #2, #3, or #4 who's as good as Ian Anderson - we really screwed up if that happens.
 
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