The Reverse Pennant Chase

Preacher said:
such a damn shame.

Look I'm not just trying to piss and moan, but I think the organization is pissing this away. There are ways to 'rest' and 'limit' your better/hotter players.

It's OK to try and punt a couple games to ensure a top-3 pick.
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Maybe our true team talent isn't that of a top 3 pick?
 
IslandBrave said:
It absolutely does. 1 player from this draft isn't going to significantly help this franchise.
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It isn't only one player, it is the larger bonus pool which could result in several more higher upside players. Also, let's say that someone develops into a clear #1 over the next year. Or one or two players separate from the pack. Or the difference making hitter everyone wants is gone when Atlanta picks (which is what happened in the last draft). It's just better to pick #1 in general.

There is no real evidence that a 97 loss team playing better at the end of the season has much to do with its performance the following season.

If watching some wins at the end of the year and avoiding 100 losses makes you feel better, then I can understand that. But I don't think it does anything positive for the future of the team.
 
Southcack77 said:
There is no real evidence that a 97 loss team playing better at the end of the season has much to do with its performance the following season.
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Actually second half record (relative to the first half) has been shown to be a statistically significant predictor of how much a team improves or declines in the following season.

At the same time I don't want to exaggerate the effect it should have on people's thinking. If you thought the Braves projected to be a 75 win team in 2017 a few months ago, now you should be thinking along the lines of 78 on the expected win curve. You can justify adding about 0.5 WAR to 2017 projections for Freeman, Kemp, Inciarte, Markakis, Garcia and Swanson based on the last couple months.
 
I think we'll lose one of these against the Marlins, win against the Phillies, and get swept by the Tigers. So go 4-4, which means 95 losses. So I guess I'm thinking 3rd to 5th pick.
 
Plus, to go along with more money and better drafting positions in each round, the Braves would win tiebreakers in the 2017 season for the 2018 draft over all teams that had a better record than them in the 2016 season. As of right now, only Minnesota would win a tiebreaker if serving the same record as Atlanta. Based on this winning streak and what's ahead, Atlanta could easily fall behind Cincinnati, San Diego, Arizona, Tampa Bay, LAA, Oakland, etc.
 
WaitingFor2017 said:
Plus, to go along with more money and better drafting positions in each round, the Braves would win tiebreakers in the 2017 season for the 2018 draft over all teams that had a better record than them in the 2016 season. As of right now, only Minnesota would win a tiebreaker if serving the same record as Atlanta. Based on this winning streak and what's ahead, Atlanta could easily fall behind Cincinnati, San Diego, Arizona, Tampa Bay, LAA, Oakland, etc.
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As long as we lose 4 games in some fashion, we should be fine. Tigers are still decent. Phillies magically beat us, usually.
 
WaitingFor2017 said:
Plus, to go along with more money and better drafting positions in each round, the Braves would win tiebreakers in the 2017 season for the 2018 draft over all teams that had a better record than them in the 2016 season. As of right now, only Minnesota would win a tiebreaker if serving the same record as Atlanta. Based on this winning streak and what's ahead, Atlanta could easily fall behind Cincinnati, San Diego, Arizona, Tampa Bay, LAA, Oakland, etc.
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This means virtually nothing, though.
 
Winning streaks only last so long. We'll lose a couple back to back out of the next 8. 4-4 should get us a top 3 pick
 
I've said all along after we didn't move many players at the deadline and added Kemp, that we would go on a steak near the end...and end up with around the 5th. I wish I was wrong, but we will be nowhere near the #2 pick.
 
Happy with the team moving in the right direction, Kemp looks like a great pickup if we can add some bats this winter.

But just hope we can somehow get a top 3 pick and not be around 7-10.
 
smootness said:
This. After our 6-game win streak, we then lost 8 of our next 10.
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Yeah, this. It might not be that dramatic, but we're not going to stay hot enough to get out of the top 3-4.

I was kinda reluctantly on #teamtank, but I find that I'm happier with the way the team has played down the stretch. We're not going to miss out on a generational talent at 1 or 2.

On the other hand, I'm a little chuffed that NOW we can win in September. :FrediPuzzled:
 
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