The Sell High Challenge

nsacpi

nsacpi

Expects Yuge Games
It is easy in retrospect to say so and so should have been traded while their value was high. So who are the sell high candidates for this off-season. The players who will depreciate the most if we wait till the trade deadline or next off-season to try to move them. Ronald Acuna?
 
nsacpi said:
It is easy in retrospect to say so and so should have been traded while their value was high. So who are the sell high candidates for this off-season. The players who will depreciate the most if we wait till the trade deadline or next off-season to try to move them. Ronald Acuna?
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It all depends on what the Braves plan is, especially after Coppy got canned.

It appears they tried to straddle the rebuild/reload line (which never works) hoping to capture a miracle and be able to quickly reload the ML roster into playoff contention, while rebuilding the farm from the wasteland that it mostly was, while moving into a new park with a new FO (supposed) and many scouting execs all without spending significant money.

Well...that didn't work.

If they are still "committed" to competing in 2018 then they will either have to spend some money or trade some prospects.

If they really aren't committed to competing in 2018 and they decide to use Coppy gate to go through a real rebuild then they should look strongly at trading Inciarte, Teheran, Folty, Flowers, Viz, possibly even Freddie given the opportunity for the right return.
 
nsacpi said:
It is easy in retrospect to say so and so should have been traded while their value was high. So who are the sell high candidates for this off-season. The players who will depreciate the most if we wait till the trade deadline or next off-season to try to move them. Ronald Acuna?
Click to expand...

The realistic sell high candidates are probably...

Johan Camargo: Another team may view him as a plus defender at SS (due to the arm strength illusion) capable of a .750-.800 OPS
Sam Freeman: BP arms are always volatile, and we possibly saw his best season
Austin Riley: His BABIP-fueled .900 OPS at AA as a 20 year old may fool a team into thinking he is a long term answer at 3B

Fried and Sims might hold more value to a team like the Rays who value cheap MLB-ready guys more than other clubs (the A's meet that description as well). One of them plus Matt Adams might be enough to cover about half the cost of acquiring Odorizzi.

Players like Acuna and Albies are obviously extremely valuable, and it's plausible they are at max value right now, but they are also instrumental to the Braves being contenders any time this decade.
 
Acuna is coming off a .400 plus BABIP season in which he was BA's minor league player of the year and appears to be the consensus #1 prospect in the game. I'm willing to bet he will have a "disappointing" 2018.

I would value him at about 12 expected wins worth of surplus value. If another team offered me a package worth 15 or more I'd trade him.

In my book Albies has even more value (in large part due to his stint in the majors and also because his 2017 performance was not BABIP fueled). I'd value him at about 15 wins worth of expected surplus value and would consider trading him for something worth 18 or more wins.
 
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