The State of Play in the Starting Pitcher Market

nsacpi

nsacpi

Expects Yuge Games
Teams that at this point are still looking for a starting pitcher: Braves, Yankees, Tigers, Royals, Rangers, Angels, Astros, Giants, Rockies.

Free agents still available: Scherzer, Shields, Volquez, Peavy, Anderson, Harang, Vogelsong, Morrow.

Teams willing to trade starting pitchers: Mets who might be willing to deal two, Orioles, maybe one or two others (what the Reds do with Cueto remains a very interesting question, others known to be available for the right price include Hamels and Kennedy).

Still looks like a buyer's market.

My guesses on how the musical chairs might play out: Rangers make trade with Mets, Scherzer to Tigers, Shields to Yankees, Peavy to Giants, , Rockies make trade with Orioles, Astros make trade with Mets, Volquez to Braves, Anderson to Angels, Harang to Royals.

Which leaves maybe a team or two still willing to trade a pitcher and Morrow/Vogelsong out there feeling unwanted.

In this market, it will pay to wait when it comes to acquiring starting pitching. I'm glad Hart and company have taken their time.

Btw, if the Tigers sign Scherzer my guess is they become very unlikely to extent Price and might even be willing to deal him this off-season. Their rotation in that scenario would be Scherzer, Verlander, Sanchez, Simon, Greene.
 
A few additional thoughts . .

- Padres have an offer out to Morrow and Pirates are said to be pursuing Volquez. Padres signing Morrow may make it easier for them to trade an SP for a bat.

- The Reds are still trying to contend (how, I don't know) and are looking to add offense. I don't think they plan to trade Cueto or Leake now.

- With the Braves newfound focus on clubhouse culture, I wonder if they'll prioritize a high-character veteran since the balance of their rotation is so young. That would portend someone more like Peavy and might make them less interested in Volquez based on some things I've read about him over the years.
 
Ian Kennedy is the pitcher the Padres want to move. Don't think we would have interest given he is a one year rental. But his availability does affect the overall supply and demand calculus.
 
Depends on what you are looking for. My guess is it's a sellers' market for Scherzer (and maybe Shields), but it's a buyers' market for the Braves as they are looking for a guy for the back end of the rotation. Curious to see what sets the negotiating benchmarks for the guys you've mentioned: Santana's 4/$54 MM, McCarthy's 4/$48 MM, or Masterson's 1/$9.5 MM+incentives.
 
Call me crazy, but Harang is still looking like a good fit if he would settle for another one-year contract. Turner Field is ideal for his fly ball tendancy.
 
Harang or Vogelsong would be ok if we have in fact moved away from the idea of playing Gattis in left.
 
nsacpi said:
Harang or Vogelsong would be ok if we have in fact moved away from the idea of playing Gattis in left.
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I wouldn't but since we are unlikely to contend I wouldn't protest much over a one year deal. However, I would argue that Hale would be a better option than both Harang and Vogelsong. Hale was solid in the rotation last year, if you check his numbers starting vs relieving he did a lot better starting. So I don't know why they won't give him a shot at that 5th spot other than wanting to add a veteran to the mix. Further, I don't really buy that Gattis will be the starting catcher for us rather than being in left field or traded. It seems to me the Braves just noting that option should they not find a trade that they like for Justin Upton and/or Gattis.
 
I wonder if the Dodgers would be willing to give up Capuano for some small return. Useful enough fifth starter/long-man, plus we'd never have to face him again.
 
blueagleace1 said:
Capuano is a free agent and pitched last year with the Yankees.
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He was only off by a year though. :)

Seriously, I never understood why some on here wanted to pick up Capuano other than the point about his success against us. But if we're going to do that, might as well bring back Maholm too.
 
If we can acquire a major league ready SP prospect in an Upton or Gattis trade, we'll have more flexibility. We can start the prospect in AAA and hunt for value at the bottom of the market. Carlos Villanueva is an option I like in this scenario. I'm sure there will be some other decent veterans desperately seeking a rotation spot too. I would only go this route if we have a better backup plan than Hale / Martin.
 
Braves1976 said:
He was only off by a year though. :)

Seriously, I never understood why some on here wanted to pick up Capuano other than the point about his success against us. But if we're going to do that, might as well bring back Maholm too.
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I just can't/wouldn't expect our front office to go after a guy (Capuano) who has had two TJ surgeries. The main point of a #5 starter is to take the ball every 5th day and eat innings. Capuano isn't someone we can expect to give us close to 35 starts and 200 innings and that is what we would want from our 5th starter.
 
I could definitely see the team making a play for Jake Peavy. He's been on their radar ever since they nearly traded for him in 2008 (for Yunel Escobar and prospects) and they were supposedly interested in snagging him this past season before the Giants made their acquisition. He fits the veteran mentor mold and would be a more than adequate arm at the back of the rotation. Factors working against the Braves are cost and position to contend in 2015.

Brett Anderson would be my pick. He has an excellent career GB percentage and would help balance out an Atlanta rotation which is flyball heavy. I imagine he is looking for a pillow contract and under those terms would be an exceptional value add.
 
Hawk said:
I could definitely see the team making a play for Jake Peavy. He's been on their radar ever since they nearly traded for him in 2008 (for Yunel Escobar and prospects) and they were supposedly interested in snagging him this past season before the Giants made their acquisition. He fits the veteran mentor mold and would be a more than adequate arm at the back of the rotation. Factors working against the Braves are cost and position to contend in 2015.

Brett Anderson would be my pick. He has an excellent career GB percentage and would help balance out an Atlanta rotation which is flyball heavy. I imagine he is looking for a pillow contract and under those terms would be an exceptional value add.
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I like Anderson too but I just don't think we can invest in a guy who hasn't started 30 games since his rookie year in 2009. From 2010-2014 he's only made 51 starts and only thrown 318.2 innings. He is a very interesting buy low candidate but I just don't think he can eat innings, which is what we need. Now he could be signed as a long man / 6th starter and another -albeit wild- possibility would be for he and David Hale to splits starts as the 5th starter to keep down their innings. One -whomever has the better spring- could break camp as the 5th starter with the other being our long man/6th starter, then have them switch roles at the All-Star break. (I know this is a different and uncommon route to take but it could make sure we have rotation depth)
 
I'd love to see Hart & Company roll the dice and make one (or maybe even a couple of) 1 year/$4 million plus easily attainable incentives offers to Chad Billingsley, Gavin Floyd, Josh Johnson, and Brandon Morrow if they could (and haven't already) scheduled throwing sessions and looked over medicals for them before someone else scoops them up while the focus is still on the bigger names.

Are there better options for our 5th slot? Sure. But Hale and Hursh provide plenty of insurance if one of them is signed and doesn't work out and these guys would represent really nice pieces to have if they're healthy and performing at the deadline. I think it'd even be worth adding a vesting option for a second year if any of them reached 170-180 IP to make them even more attractive for potential trade partners (not to mention available to keep in the event of a Minor trade).
 
The team is looking for certain things from the fifth starter. They would like a veteran given how young the rest of the rotation is. They want someone who can potentially give them 30+ starts and close to 200 innings.

They are less likely to target someone who is coming off an injury, like Josh Johnson or Billingsley. They tipped their hand on that by non-tendering Medlen and Beachy. It would have been simpler and cheaper (in Beachy's case) to keep one of those two if they wanted to have an injury-rehab guy available for mid-season depth.

The rotation in Gwinnett looks like it will provide some good depth. My guess is it will consist of Hale, Hursh, Martin, Thomas and Williams Perez. That's another reason for not incurring the expense of an injury-rehab veteran signing.

The major league pen looks like this: Kimbrel, Carpenter, Simmons, Johnson, Varvaro, Russell and Avilan.

Shreve will provide lefty depth in AAA. The righties in the Gwinnett pen would include Vizcaino, Kohn, Northcraft, Jaime, Cunniff and Harper. We also signed a half dozen minor league free agent pitchers who could pitch in either Gwinnett or Mississippi.

We're pretty much set on pitching except for the fifth starter. I expect it will be one of Volquez, Harang, Vogelsong or Peavy. The ideal contract is a one-year deal with an option. But they would have to go two or three years to get Volquez or Peavy.

If we make a trade for a fifth starter, Baltimore is the most likely trading partner. But the trade route is less likely that the FA route.
 
nsacpi said:
The team is looking for certain things from the fifth starter. They would like a veteran given how young the rest of the rotation is. They want someone who can potentially give them 30+ starts and close to 200 innings.

They are less likely to target someone who is coming off an injury, like Josh Johnson or Billingsley. They tipped their hand on that by non-tendering Medlen and Beachy. It would have been simpler and cheaper (in Beachy's case) to keep one of those two if they wanted to have an injury-rehab guy available for mid-season depth.

The rotation in Gwinnett looks like it will provide some good depth. My guess is it will consist of Hale, Hursh, Martin, Thomas and Williams Perez. That's another reason for not incurring the expense of an injury-rehab veteran signing.

The major league pen looks like this: Kimbrel, Carpenter, Simmons, Johnson, Varvaro, Russell and Avilan.

Shreve will provide lefty depth in AAA. The righties in the Gwinnett pen would include Vizcaino, Kohn, Northcraft, Jaime, Cunniff and Harper. We also signed a half dozen minor league free agent pitchers who could pitch in either Gwinnett or Mississippi.

We're pretty much set on pitching except for the fifth starter. I expect it will be one of Volquez, Harang, Vogelsong or Peavy. The ideal contract is a one-year deal with an option. But they would have to go two or three years to get Volquez or Peavy.

If we make a trade for a fifth starter, Baltimore is the most likely trading partner. But the trade route is less likely that the FA route.
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Exactly! Can't take risk on someone(s) who we need to count on to eat innings. Peavy fits the bill of that as well as being a great mentor to our young guys. Unfortunately I don't see him signing a 1-2 year deal.
 
I know we have a 5th starter opening, but Id argue we have a more pressing need for a No 1 starter and pushing everyone back a spot.
 
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