The Trump Presidency

57Brave said:
" Obama's go to think tank "

?

Obama famously, and often to his political detriment, listened to everyone before making a decision.
.......
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So yes, Obama's go to think tank:

http://foreignpolicy.com/2009/06/06/cnass-floyd-to-defense-department/
By Laura Rozen | June 6, 2009, 3:08 PM
Another member of the Center for a New American Security is joining the Pentagon. Price Floyd, director of external relations at CNAS and a former State Department spokesman, starts Monday as the Defense Department’s principal deputy assistant secretary for public affairs.

Floyd joins a big CNAS group at the Pentagon: Under Secretary of Defense for Policy Michele Flournoy; Principal Deputy Under Secretary of Defense for Policy James N. Miller; DASD for the Middle East Colin Kahl; former fellow Shawn Brimley, who serves as special advisor to Flournoy with a focus on strategy and the Quadrennial Defense Review; former CNAS fellow Vikram Singh, a special advisor on Af-Pak to Flournoy who has recently joined Holbrooke’s team as senior defense advisor and director for strategic communications; former CNAS fellow Eric Pierce, who serves as deputy chief for legislative affairs at the DoD; and former CNAS researcher Alice Hunt, who serves as a special assistant to Flournoy.

Several other CNAS officials have joined the administration: CNAS cofounder and former president Kurt Campbell has been nominated as assistant secretary of state for East Asian and Pacific Affairs; former CNAS senior fellow Derek Chollet is deputy director of State Department Policy Planning; and former CNAS CFO Nate Tibbits heads national security for the White House Office of Presidential Personnel.
 
thethe said:
Trumps presidency has been successful this far in spite of unprecedented resistance. The left and establishment right hate it but have no idea how to solve the worlds problems.
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If further enriching himself while cause as much chaos and misery to others as possible was his plan, he's been very successful thus far. The economy looks to be headed toward another recession and when/if that happens, Trump's approval rating may fall even lower than the 32% knucklehead floor.

I agree with you that the left doesn't know how to solve the world's problem, but the establishment right only cares about its own hold on money and power.
 
Runnin said:
If further enriching himself while cause as much chaos and misery to others as possible was his plan, he's been very successful thus far. The economy looks to be headed toward another recession and when/if that happens, Trump's approval rating may fall even lower than the 32% knucklehead floor.

I agree with you that the left doesn't know how to solve the world's problem, but the establishment right only cares about its own hold on money and power.
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Ooooh can you tell me why, specifically, the economy "looks to be headed toward another recession?"

I'm not saying you're wrong, but I'm confident you have no idea why
 
57Brave said:
" Obama's go to think tank "

?

Obama famously, and often to his political detriment, listened to everyone before making a decision.
.......
Click to expand...

If only you had taken 30 seconds to inform yourself prior to your knee jerk reaction to deify Obama and mitigate Trump.

https://www.cnas.org/people/michèle-flournoy
She served as the Under Secretary of Defense for Policy from February 2009 to February 2012. She was the principal adviser to the Secretary of Defense in the formulation of national security and defense policy, oversight of military plans and operations, and in National Security Council deliberations. She led the development of DoD’s 2012 Strategic Guidance and represented the Department in dozens of foreign engagements, in the media and before Congress.

Prior to confirmation, Ms. Flournoy co-led President Obama’s transition team at DoD.
...
Ms. Flournoy was a member of President Obama’s Intelligence Advisory Board and CIA Director John Brennan’s External Advisory Board

https://www.cnas.org/people/robert-work
Secretary Work previously served as the Deputy Secretary of Defense, where he was responsible for overseeing the day-to-day business of the Pentagon and developing the Department’s $600 billion defense program.
...
Prior to serving as Deputy Secretary, Secretary Work spent one year as CEO of the CNAS, after serving as Undersecretary of the Navy from 2009–2013 in the first Obama administration.

https://www.cnas.org/people/victoria-nuland
A U.S. diplomat for 32 years, Ambassador Nuland served as Assistant Secretary of State for European and Eurasian Affairs from September 2013 until January 2017 under President Obama and Secretary Kerry. She was State Department Spokesperson during Secretary Hillary Clinton’s tenure

https://www.cnas.org/people/kurt-m-campbell
From 2009 to 2013, he served as the Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific Affairs, where he is widely credited as being a key architect of the “pivot to Asia.” For advancing a comprehensive U.S. strategy that took him to every corner of the Asia-Pacific region, Secretary Hillary Clinton awarded him the Secretary of State’s Distinguished Service Award (2013) — the nation’s highest diplomatic honor.

https://www.cnas.org/people/nathaniel-c-fick
He served in 2007 as a civilian instructor at the Afghanistan Counterinsurgency Academy in Kabul, and in 2008 on the Presidential Transition Team at the Department of Veterans Affairs.

https://www.cnas.org/people/secretary-johnson
Jeh Johnson is the former U.S. Secretary of Homeland Security. He served in that position from December 2013 to January 2017.
...
Prior to becoming Secretary of Homeland Security, Johnson was General Counsel of the Department of Defense (2009-2012). In that position, Johnson is credited with being the legal architect for the U.S. military’s counterterrorism efforts in the Obama Administration. In 2010, Johnson also co-authored the report that paved the way for the repeal of the Don’t Ask, Don’t Tell by Congress later that year.

https://www.cnas.org/people/joseph-lieberman
At the end of his service in January 2013, he was Chairman of the Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee, and a senior member of the Armed Services Committee.

https://www.cnas.org/people/robert-roche
For more than 30 years, Roche has lived and worked in Asia, founding companies, investing in start-ups, and representing the United States through his service in the American Chambers of Commerce in Japan and China, and as a member of the U.S. Trade Representative’s Advisory Committee for Trade Policy and Negotiations (2010-2014).

https://www.cnas.org/people/susanna-blume
Ms. Blume served as Deputy Chief of Staff for Programs and Plans to the Deputy Secretary of Defense, whom she advised on programming and budget issues, global force management, operational and strategic planning, force posture, and acquisition policy. During this time, she served as Executive Secretary of the Deputy's Management Action Group, the Department's top resource decision making body. She also served in the Office of the Under Secretary of Defense for Policy and in the Office of the Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Plans and Posture. During her years at DoD, Blume participated in two Quadrennial Defense Reviews, the 2013 Strategic Choices and Management Review, and six Program and Budget Review cycles.
 
Runnin said:
If further enriching himself while cause as much chaos and misery to others as possible was his plan, he's been very successful thus far. The economy looks to be headed toward another recession and when/if that happens, Trump's approval rating may fall even lower than the 32% knucklehead floor.

I agree with you that the left doesn't know how to solve the world's problem, but the establishment right only cares about its own hold on money and power.
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You think trump is more wealthy now then when he started to run for presidency? Think again...

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.bu...oss-net-wort-wealth-billions-millions-2017-10

Also, to sturgs point why do you think the economy I about to crash? Or is it just something you're hoping for?
 
Jaw said:
An interesting take on the Trump foreign policy, from one of the analysts at Center for a New American Security (this was Obama's go to think tank for Defense and foreign affairs)

Donald Trump has disturbed the world. His policy of strategic ambiguity has destabilized friends and foes alike. It has forced enemies such as North Korea to the bargaining table and made allies question the United States’ commitment to their security. For these reasons, ambiguity has been downplayed as a tool of U.S. diplomacy. It makes people uneasy, a feeling not embraced when dealing with global superpowers.

It is also true that anti-Trump sentiment among Western intelligentsia is so strong that few serious foreign-policy or national-security analysts are willing to openly examine the concerns his election highlighted or the success he is having in their sphere. Their belief in President Trump as a manifestation of ignorance or evil is so overwhelming that they are unable to perceive the heightened concerns and respect for the America’s position in the world that have emerged in centers of power in the Asia-Pacific, the Middle East, and African regions where China’s rise had, up until a year ago, appeared inevitable. So consumed are American and European practitioners of foreign policy with their Never/Anti-Trumpism that they have never stopped to consider that his approach is working.
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Adherence to rules is an important civilizational norm that has characterized the West for centuries, but when one nation finds itself to be the only entity obeying the rules, those rules are not “norms.” President Trump understands this, and future historians will look back and almost certainly recognize him as a realist who first sought to clearly identify U.S. national interests and then pursued them while also seeking balance with external commitments. His use of strategic ambiguity is not unlike Eisenhower’s. His rhetoric is not unlike Reagan’s, and his independence and personal confidence are not unlike those of his fellow New Yorker, Franklin D. Roosevelt. These men each came to the presidency with perspectives that were unconstrained by national politics, based as they were on their own unique, private professional backgrounds.

By his own methods, President Trump has created space for diplomatic, economic, and military maneuver. His method of employing strategic ambiguity gives him room to practice his “art” of high-end negotiations in the service of the American people. Thus far, he has successfully taken significant actions in key areas of deregulation, court appointments, tax reform, the expansion of the military, and diplomatic negotiations. That others might not view his initiatives as successes at present says more about their perceptions than about his actions.
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I find this interesting to consider and containing a few worthwhile kernels, but in the end it just seems a grand-scale rationalization.

The application to domestic politics is especially fuzzy, particularly the bit about practicing his "art" of high-end negotiations, et. al, then going on to a laundry list of "accomplishments" that include deregulation (which is an uncontested layup) court appointments (which record is actually pretty meh, particularly considering friendly congress), tax reform (the fact that his personal involvement almost kept a Republican House and Senate from passing a tax cut, for chrissake, should tell us something), the expansion of the military (not quite an uncontested layup but not far from it), and diplomatic negotiations (we'll see). Notably not mentioned: the health care goat rodeo.

What, specifically, did his unique abilities bring to these questions? On whom are we to believe that he is practicing this arcane magic?

Ok, so strategic ambiguity creates space for maneuver. I can buy that, but when you're looking at real-world examples, you realize that the rest of the equation is missing. Here's space to maneuver--now, how are you going to use it? Oh (for example) look, trade tariffs that nobody likes, apparently announced in slapdash fashion before they were ready for rollout. This reminds me of all the early admonitions that Trump was brilliantly manipulating the chaotic storm around him, playing 12-D Stratego to bend events to his will, whereas I think we have enough information now to conclude that it's just self-serving improvisation by a guy out of his depth.
 
IF those are the benchmarks to give 'credit' to any president for changes that have been made then which president gets good marks? You can caveat everything that this administration has done all you want but ultimately the people that voted for him are happy with the results. Of course not all of it. The true conservatives are pissed at the tariffs. The hard core nationalists are pissed at the way immigration/wall has progressed. We are all pissed about his insistence on him still acting like a child.

But, when its all said and done he has been a successful president so far during his term. If denuclearization happens with NK then you can put a bow on it he will go down as one of the best presidents of all time.
 
I'm not arguing that he shouldn't get credit for accomplishments under his administration just because they were low-hanging fruit. I'm taking issue with the author's point that those accomplishments were substantially owing to Trump's personal skills and capacities. It's no stretch to suggest that they aren't. Remember, this guy took credit for a year free of commercial aviation deaths.

I think it's too early to start deciding on the big-picture success or failure of his administration.
 
Julio3000 said:
I'm not arguing that he shouldn't get credit for accomplishments under his administration just because they were low-hanging fruit. I'm taking issue with the author's point that those accomplishments were substantially owing to Trump's personal skills and capacities. It's no stretch to suggest that they aren't. Remember, this guy took credit for a year free of commercial aviation deaths.

I think it's too early to start deciding on the big-picture success or failure of his administration.
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Ok, not an unfair argument and the token republican would've gotten the majority of the things done. However, I think his success, and yes I consider it to be a success thus far, on the international front requires a unique personality that is unafraid of political consequences as almost all career politicians are. The new alliances being forged globally are strengthening our position I'm key hotbed areas. This administration should get many accolades thus far for that.
 
An observation about some of the things being touted as "accomplishments." In several cases they involve borrowing from one account in favor of another.

The most straightforward one is fiscal stimulus. It is easy to have a nice party by blowing a 200 billion dollar hole in federal finances. Eventually there is payback. Here we borrow from the future to boost current economic activity. This is not in and of itself a criticism. Just an observation.

Similarly, relaxation of environment standards means adding to GDP but subtracting from off-book accounts that measure environmental quality. Again not necessarily a bad thing. In some cases the cost-benefit very likely argues for reducing environmental protection. Ditto for business regulation.

Getting rid of financial restrictions enacted after the financial crisis is an especially interesting example. Those restrictions have undoubtedly made credit more difficult to get. But they also reduce systemic risk. I personally believe that the restrictions went too far and should be relaxed. But there is a balance to be struck. And an honest assessment would acknowledge that relaxing those restrictions makes a future financial crisis more likely and when it comes probably more severe. For now though reducing those financial regulations makes the party more fun.

This is one of the characteristics of economic populism. It is usually popular and some would say effective in its initial phase. Usually when the time comes for cleaning up the mess left behind by the binge, the populists have long been swept out of office. Funny how that works. An exception is Venezuela where the populists have held on and on much longer than is usually the case.
 
Julio3000 said:
I find this interesting to consider and containing a few worthwhile kernels, but in the end it just seems a grand-scale rationalization.

The application to domestic politics is especially fuzzy, particularly the bit about practicing his "art" of high-end negotiations, et. al, then going on to a laundry list of "accomplishments" that include deregulation (which is an uncontested layup) court appointments (which record is actually pretty meh, particularly considering friendly congress), tax reform (the fact that his personal involvement almost kept a Republican House and Senate from passing a tax cut, for chrissake, should tell us something), the expansion of the military (not quite an uncontested layup but not far from it), and diplomatic negotiations (we'll see). Notably not mentioned: the health care goat rodeo.

What, specifically, did his unique abilities bring to these questions? On whom are we to believe that he is practicing this arcane magic?

Ok, so strategic ambiguity creates space for maneuver. I can buy that, but when you're looking at real-world examples, you realize that the rest of the equation is missing. Here's space to maneuver--now, how are you going to use it? Oh (for example) look, trade tariffs that nobody likes, apparently announced in slapdash fashion before they were ready for rollout. This reminds me of all the early admonitions that Trump was brilliantly manipulating the chaotic storm around him, playing 12-D Stratego to bend events to his will, whereas I think we have enough information now to conclude that it's just self-serving improvisation by a guy out of his depth.
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I try to read everything Hendrix writes about foreign policy or military affairs because I think he is among the best thinkers out there on those topics. I think he diminishes himself once he crosses over into more domestic issues, as he did here. I habitually skim past those to the point that I didn't consider them when posting the link. That section needed an editor's red pen, but I found the rest of the piece thought provoking. I have posted a link here before that discussed the strategy Tillerson and Mattis have pursued on North Korea, and how they decided to use one of Trump's weaknesses (his twitter rhetoric) to their advantage by pushing Kim off balance. Hendrix is providing background for that strategy here.
 
Jaw said:
If only you had taken 30 seconds to inform yourself prior to your knee jerk reaction to deify Obama and mitigate Trump.

https://www.cnas.org/people/michèle-flournoy

She served as the Under Secretary of Defense for Policy from February 2009 to February 2012. She was the principal adviser to the Secretary of Defense in the formulation of national security and defense policy, oversight of military plans and operations, and in National Security Council deliberations. She led the development of DoD’s 2012 Strategic Guidance and represented the Department in dozens of foreign engagements, in the media and before Congress.

Prior to confirmation, Ms. Flournoy co-led President Obama’s transition team at DoD.

...

Ms. Flournoy was a member of President Obama’s Intelligence Advisory Board and CIA Director John Brennan’s External Advisory Board

https://www.cnas.org/people/robert-work

Secretary Work previously served as the Deputy Secretary of Defense, where he was responsible for overseeing the day-to-day business of the Pentagon and developing the Department’s $600 billion defense program.

...

Prior to serving as Deputy Secretary, Secretary Work spent one year as CEO of the CNAS, after serving as Undersecretary of the Navy from 2009–2013 in the first Obama administration.

https://www.cnas.org/people/victoria-nuland

A U.S. diplomat for 32 years, Ambassador Nuland served as Assistant Secretary of State for European and Eurasian Affairs from September 2013 until January 2017 under President Obama and Secretary Kerry. She was State Department Spokesperson during Secretary Hillary Clinton’s tenure

https://www.cnas.org/people/kurt-m-campbell

From 2009 to 2013, he served as the Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific Affairs, where he is widely credited as being a key architect of the “pivot to Asia.” For advancing a comprehensive U.S. strategy that took him to every corner of the Asia-Pacific region, Secretary Hillary Clinton awarded him the Secretary of State’s Distinguished Service Award (2013) — the nation’s highest diplomatic honor.

https://www.cnas.org/people/nathaniel-c-fick

He served in 2007 as a civilian instructor at the Afghanistan Counterinsurgency Academy in Kabul, and in 2008 on the Presidential Transition Team at the Department of Veterans Affairs.

https://www.cnas.org/people/secretary-johnson

Jeh Johnson is the former U.S. Secretary of Homeland Security. He served in that position from December 2013 to January 2017.

...

Prior to becoming Secretary of Homeland Security, Johnson was General Counsel of the Department of Defense (2009-2012). In that position, Johnson is credited with being the legal architect for the U.S. military’s counterterrorism efforts in the Obama Administration. In 2010, Johnson also co-authored the report that paved the way for the repeal of the Don’t Ask, Don’t Tell by Congress later that year.

https://www.cnas.org/people/joseph-lieberman

At the end of his service in January 2013, he was Chairman of the Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee, and a senior member of the Armed Services Committee.

https://www.cnas.org/people/robert-roche

For more than 30 years, Roche has lived and worked in Asia, founding companies, investing in start-ups, and representing the United States through his service in the American Chambers of Commerce in Japan and China, and as a member of the U.S. Trade Representative’s Advisory Committee for Trade Policy and Negotiations (2010-2014).

https://www.cnas.org/people/susanna-blume

Ms. Blume served as Deputy Chief of Staff for Programs and Plans to the Deputy Secretary of Defense, whom she advised on programming and budget issues, global force management, operational and strategic planning, force posture, and acquisition policy. During this time, she served as Executive Secretary of the Deputy's Management Action Group, the Department's top resource decision making body. She also served in the Office of the Under Secretary of Defense for Policy and in the Office of the Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Plans and Posture. During her years at DoD, Blume participated in two Quadrennial Defense Reviews, the 2013 Strategic Choices and Management Review, and six Program and Budget Review cycles.
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That is all well and good, but I wouldn't characterize any one think tank as Obama's "go to" and merely thought it odd you would.

On another note, I have been told for 10 years Obama's foreign policy was terrible. Am I to assume you now are touting those same advisers as experts ?
 
Jaw said:
I try to read everything Hendrix writes about foreign policy or military affairs because I think he is among the best thinkers out there on those topics. I think he diminishes himself once he crosses over into more domestic issues, as he did here. I habitually skim past those to the point that I didn't consider them when posting the link. That section needed an editor's red pen, but I found the rest of the piece thought provoking. I have posted a link here before that discussed the strategy Tillerson and Mattis have pursued on North Korea, and how they decided to use one of Trump's weaknesses (his twitter rhetoric) to their advantage by pushing Kim off balance. Hendrix is providing background for that strategy here.
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Agreed, and I think that the example you mention re: NK to be valid and quite possibly productive--at the very least the best way of making lemonade from the lemons they're handed.
 
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