The Trump Presidency

You can start with interest rates, QE, and stages of the cycle during Obama years vs now.

You can start there.

Then you can look at consumer confidence, small business confidence, job openings, and capex compared to 3 years ago.

As has been shown over and over and over again, Obama had the worst recession recovery in US history.
 
nsacpi said:
it's fine to talk about results in the field...I desire to credit the wisdom of the current occupant of the oval office is the problematic part
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The thing is, the results matter a lot. We didn't have the option of picking the smartest most dignified person and then picking the policy platform separately.

You made a choice to not support Trump due to his character flaws, and I really respect that. I admit that I am surprised by how far leftward your mindset seems to have shifted since that time, but maybe I thought you were more Reagan when you were always more McCain. Not important.

What is of import is that had everyone embraced your mindset, we would have President Clinton likely bolstering ACA to even more of a bottomless pit of tax dollars, more economically unfriendly regulation, more taxes taken so that one tenth of them can go to entitlements while the rest go to feed more bureaucracy, and two more SC justices to the left of RBG. Those aren't my predictions of gloom and doom, those were her campaign positions.

Maybe things would have been different if he was running against Mother Teresa with Hillary's positions, but I think we all acknowledge that wasn't the case. As far as cleanliness of character goes we were able to choose between grimy and filthy.

So yes, despite serious doubts, many of us held our nose and voted for a moral reprobate. Yes, it sucked. And yes, seeing the results so far come out near the high end of our most optimistic projections has been great. I don't care if that is because of Trump or Pence or Kushner or Kahn or Mattis or the White House chef, because I know that the country is in better shape and on a better path than it would be if a few thousand more people had taken your approach to the last election.
 
Jaw said:
So yes, despite serious doubts, many of us held our nose and voted for a moral reprobate. Yes, it sucked. And yes, seeing the results so far come out near the high end of our most optimistic projections has been great. I don't care if that is because of Trump or Pence or Kushner or Kahn or Mattis or the White House chef, because I know that the country is in better shape and on a better path than it would be if a few thousand more people had taken your approach to the last election.
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Are we in better shape? Federal finances are one of the things the president is most directly responsible for. We've blown a $300B hole in federal finances. I wouldn't mistake the sugar high emanating from that for genuine economic improvement.

The fiscal stimulus is poorly timed from a cyclical perspective. Not surprisingly, inflation is rising and so are interest rates. Populism is usually popular in its initial phase. The problematic part comes later.
 
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sturg33 said:
Please let the adults talk about economy
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Charles M. Blow
‏Verified account @CharlesMBlow
2h2 hours ago

Never forget that @realDonaldTrump LIED about 9/11, falsely claiming

that he saw Muslims in NJ celebrating on rooftops as people were dying that day.


It was such a hateful, harmful lie.

ever heard the old saw
"that man would lie when the truth would serve him as well" ????

I am old enough to remember Feb 2017 when Trump (and you pushing the narrative) was taking credit for the booming economy.

Adults ...
 
Some economic data for Trumpophiles to chew on:

Budget deficit: $665B in FY 2017, $804 in FY 2018 (CBO projection), $981B in FY 2019 (CBO), $1008B in FY 2020 (CBO)

Consumer Prices: up 2.9 percent in 12 months through July 2018 (most recent month available) vs 1.9% in July 2017 and 0.8% in July 2016.

Interest Rates: yield on 10-year Treasury: 2.94 (close of last week) vs 1.81 (1 year ago) vs 1.67 (2 years ago)

Trade Deficit: $338B (first 7 months of 2018) vs $316B (first 7 months of 2017) vs $288B (first 7 months of 2016)
 
sturg33 said:
You can start with interest rates, QE, and stages of the cycle during Obama years vs now.

You can start there.

Then you can look at consumer confidence, small business confidence, job openings, and capex compared to 3 years ago.

As has been shown over and over and over again, Obama had the worst recession recovery in US history.
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I’m ok giving Trump an appropriate measure of credit for the good economy. I also agree with sacpi that he’s done his work in a way that may cause a hard landing on the other side.

I’m mostly just objecting to the narrative that Trump fashioned this robust economy from whole cloth.

What you’re saying about the recovery is true as far as it goes, I guess, but it’s eliding the point that not all recessions are created equal.
 
President Trump: "…It was one of the best jobs that has ever been done…Puerto Rico was an incredible, unsung success."
 
Julio3000 said:
I’m ok giving Trump an appropriate measure of credit for the good economy. I also agree with sacpi that he’s done his work in a way that may cause a hard landing on the other side.

I’m mostly just objecting to the narrative that Trump fashioned this robust economy from whole cloth.

What you’re saying about the recovery is true as far as it goes, I guess, but it’s eliding the point that not all recessions are created equal.
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It is difficult to take any of concerns about deficit spending seriously.

Of course you're objecting to the narrative. Because it doesn't fit your daily soap opera narrative of Trump = Armageddon because, reasons

Y'all have to stop pretending Trump & Obama's economies were the same. They are very different and Trump is doing more while fighting the fed
 
sturg33 said:
It is difficult to take any of concerns about deficit spending seriously.

Of course you're objecting to the narrative. Because it doesn't fit your daily soap opera narrative of Trump = Armageddon because, reasons

Y'all have to stop pretending Trump & Obama's economies were the same. They are very different and Trump is doing more while fighting the fed
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Hmmm. I’m not saying they are the same. Obama inherited the worst recession in living memory. He presided over an expansion of unprecedented length. Yes, it was relatively shallow, but it flies in the face of the narrative that Trump has created “the best economy in history” from whole cloth. He inherited a growing economy, healthy markets, and low unemployment. His policies have goosed things further. Celebrate each month of good numbers all you want, but don’t try to erase history and expect it to be taken seriously.

When Obama took office, we were in a catastrophic recession. There was a credit crisis and the housing sector was still in shambles. Several huge financial institutions had ceased to exist overnight. Two of the Big Three automakers were underwater. Unemployment was 7.8% and peaked at 10% during his third quarter in office. To compare those 8 years with Trump’s first 18 months is laughable.
 
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