There are few scenarios where I would do it...

[Horsehide Harry]

Houston is not making that trade. They could just have easily signed Hosmer, Santana, or JD Martinez at similar rates and stuck them at 1b while giving up zero prospects.

Maybe they don't. I said from the beginning that I don't trade Freeman unless I get the package back I want. However, Freeman is a better and more complete player than any of those players. Santana is old and headed for a crash. Martinez is one dimensional and not a 1B. Hosmer signed an expensive contract in terms of money and years and isn't half the player Freeman is - IMO, Hosmer is fool's gold. Houston went into ST with the idea that they would use Gurriel there (as they did last year) but he's a 3B by trade and hurt for at least 6 weeks.

Again, I wouldn't trade Freeman unless I got a package back that was significant (similar to what I laid out with Houston). But, I wouldn't let the fact that Freeman is Freeman deter me from taking advantage of a package like that if it was available and I wouldn't sit on the sidelines waiting for someone to come to me. I would pick up the phone and let a few targeted teams know what it would take if they wanted him as see where it goes. If it doesn't go anywhere, so be it.

 

[Southcack77]

Braves have pretty clearly made their choice on Freeman.

reversing that decision now would be so unpalatable politically and with Braves fans that I cannot see a GM being strong enough to make that call. I'm not sure he'd be allowed to if he wanted to. Braves are already getting hit with mildly bad press about their lack of movement this offseason. I can't imagine the storm that would come if they traded their best player. It would take a ton of balls and I don't think it would be a good career decision.

Other than that, anyone should be tradable for the right package, but I don't see Harry's proposed returns as particularly realistic for a 1B with only a decent contract.

I think the Braves now have 2018 to assess how close they are. If they find their young core and pitchers hit their stride, they have a ton of resources to use to try and improve that next offseason through trade and free salary space. I don't see any reason why they shouldn't just commit to that path. There is no guarantee that waves of prospects will continue a run. We're not likely to see the 90s Braves any time soon. Everybody tends to build and crash for a bit now. When other teams are managed efficiently that's almost inevitable.

I'd like to see them shoot for getting those wildcard spots and making moves to improve the team. And then try and acquire draft picks and prospects where they can by trading veterans and prospects alike from surplus.

 

[Knucksie]

Kind of remarkable that this has gone out to 3 pages without recommending to trade Inciarte too.

 

[bravesfanMatt]

I might go with HH trade FF propossal if I can be the one who f’ing chops Coppys right arm off.

 

[thethe]

Kind of remarkable that this has gone out to 3 pages without recommending to trade Inciarte too.

Depending on the advancement of Paches hit tool this year I would expect Inciarte to be floated around at the deadline as a potential trade piece.

 

[Southcack77]

Kind of remarkable that this has gone out to 3 pages without recommending to trade Inciarte too.

the logical extension is to trade everyone on a contract or within a couple of years of free agency. Or arguably arbitration as someone mentioned.

the premise is the Braves didn't get enough talent back in the rebuild to cut it. So if you think that is the case, you should be burning it down again.

 

[Horsehide Harry]

the logical extension is to trade everyone on a contract or within a couple of years of free agency. Or arguably arbitration as someone mentioned.

the premise is the Braves didn't get enough talent back in the rebuild to cut it. So if you think that is the case, you should be burning it down again.

To a certain extent this is part of my thinking.

The Braves DIDN'T get enough talent back (at least early) to make the rebuild successful. Think about it - early trade returns at the beginning of the rebuild have mostly busted our at least underwhelmed. The few successes really haven't been that great.

Folty has been meh. Even if he pulls it together, he's no longer that valuable because he's now more expensive AND approaching the end of his control.
Inciarte wasn't really a prospect (he was already established). But he's been a success. He's not really a true core player that you build a team around. But he's good.
Swanson, to this point has been a failure. Maybe he turns it around. But I don't think anyone sees him now as a future star.
Wisler and Blair have been failures.
Jenkins and Ellis were complete failures.
Newcomb may still work out but is still a huge question mark in his second year.
HO and the dwarves sent with him from LA was an explosive turd of a trade.
The 2014 Draft looks like a complete wasteland. Fortunately, the Braves did have some international luck with Acuna and Albies during that time or things would be really bleak. Yes, technically the 2014 draft was before the rebuild but it plays into where we are today.

The 2015 Draft is somewhat better (as it should be with 5 picks before the 3rd round) but not transcendently great. Allard looks marginal at this point. Soroka looks like a real find. Riley - who knows - he looks like a RH 1B to me who's short on true power for the position. Lucas is a bust so far - can't hit/couldn't when he was drafted. Minter is showing promise but is as fragile as he was when he was drafted. Weigel looked like a find until TJ.

The Braves have a very good farm currently based mainly on pitching. Unfortunately, most of that pitching is of the middle to back end of the rotation variety which makes it valuable but not hugely so. There doesn't appear to be much star power with the pitching unless one or more of the Wright/Soroka/Gohara trio come through. The offensive players look forced into their positions because of need (Riley) or are very far away. The bright spots (Albies & Acuna) likely would have been here even if the Braves had never begun a rebuild/reload. But they aren't enough by themselves.

If the Braves had another $40M of payroll space they could probably supplement their way to being competitive. But they don't. And they are short on position prospects of value to solidify the team moving forward.

As I've said before. They are headed for baseball purgatory: not bad enough so it's obvious that the rebuild failed and everyone agrees that it's back to the drawing board; not good enough to really win anything outside of an occasional WC and maybe a blind squirrel Divison.

 

[nsacpi]

To a certain extent this is part of my thinking.

The Braves DIDN'T get enough talent back (at least early) to make the rebuild successful. Think about it - early trade returns at the beginning of the rebuild have mostly busted our at least underwhelmed. The few successes really haven't been that great.

Folty has been meh. Even if he pulls it together, he's no longer that valuable because he's now more expensive AND approaching the end of his control.
Inciarte wasn't really a prospect (he was already established). But he's been a success. He's not really a true core player that you build a team around. But he's good.
Swanson, to this point has been a failure. Maybe he turns it around. But I don't think anyone sees him now as a future star.
Wisler and Blair have been failures.
Jenkins and Ellis were complete failures.
Newcomb may still work out but is still a huge question mark in his second year.
HO and the dwarves sent with him from LA was an explosive turd of a trade.
The 2014 Draft looks like a complete wasteland. Fortunately, the Braves did have some international luck with Acuna and Albies during that time or things would be really bleak. Yes, technically the 2014 draft was before the rebuild but it plays into where we are today.

The 2015 Draft is somewhat better (as it should be with 5 picks before the 3rd round) but not transcendently great. Allard looks marginal at this point. Soroka looks like a real find. Riley - who knows - he looks like a RH 1B to me who's short on true power for the position. Lucas is a bust so far - can't hit/couldn't when he was drafted. Minter is showing promise but is as fragile as he was when he was drafted. Weigel looked like a find until TJ.

The Braves have a very good farm currently based mainly on pitching. Unfortunately, most of that pitching is of the middle to back end of the rotation variety which makes it valuable but not hugely so. There doesn't appear to be much star power with the pitching unless one or more of the Wright/Soroka/Gohara trio come through. The offensive players look forced into their positions because of need (Riley) or are very far away. The bright spots (Albies & Acuna) likely would have been here even if the Braves had never begun a rebuild/reload. But they aren't enough by themselves.

If the Braves had another $40M of payroll space they could probably supplement their way to being competitive. But they don't. And they are short on position prospects of value to solidify the team moving forward.

As I've said before. They are headed for baseball purgatory: not bad enough so it's obvious that the rebuild failed and everyone agrees that it's back to the drawing board; not good enough to really win anything outside of an occasional WC and maybe a blind squirrel Divison.

Acuna & Albies have a chance to make up for a lot of those early fails.

There are always more fails than successes when it comes to prospects, even very highly touted ones.

I kind of have a rule of 6 (derived from a very fancy algorithm requiring a cutting edge microprocessor) about how many core players you need to have a good run of success. Our Core 6 as I see it are: Freeman, Inciarte, Acuna, Albies, Soroka, Gohara. I'm happy to take my chances with this group.

This team is going to be on a pretty steep upward trajectory through 2020-2021. What happens after that will largely depend on how we draft going forward and how smart we are when it comes to handing out contracts.

 

[Hudson2]

Middle to back end rotation prospects? Wright, Gohara, and Soroka are our top 3 pitching prospects and are not back end guys. The farm is in excellent shape and we have another top 10 pick coming in a few months.

 

[Horsehide Harry]

Acuna & Albies have a chance to make up for a lot of those early fails.

There are always more fails than successes when it comes to prospects, even very highly touted ones.

I kind of have a rule of 6 (derived from a very fancy algorithm requiring a cutting edge microprocessor) about how many core players you need to have a good run of success. Our Core 6 as I see it are: Freeman, Inciarte, Acuna, Albies, Soroka, Gohara. I'm happy to take my chances with this group.

This team is going to be on a pretty steep upward trajectory through 2020-2021. What happens after that will largely depend on how we draft going forward and how smart we are when it comes to handing out contracts.

Freeman and Inciarte I see. The other four (67%) are still prospects which means you are relying on prospects as the core of your team. That may be fine or may not.

I look at a core in a different way. I think you need a LO hitter (this should be a high OBP guy who plays a premium defensive position such as CF, SS or 2B). In your example I would say that Inciarte or Albies are superfluous to the other. I think you need a 3,4 and 5 hitter. You can call Freeman a 3 or 4, preferably a 4 since his speed is limited and will decline. Acuna might, maybe even should, be a 3 or 5. Let's say he is. And you need a #1 and #2 SP.

If you have that core, you have a good chance of building a team each year. Right now, the Braves have no one near a #1 or #2. They all are #3 quality or worse. Could that change? Sure, hopefully, maybe. I don't think it's going to be Teheran (declining and soon gone from control), Folty (headcase, getting expensive and soon gone from control) or Newk (too wild). So that pins the hopes on two of the 3 possibles in Gohara, Wright and Soroka.

As for the missing piece in the 3,4,5 equation I don't see that in the Braves system. You could put Albies or Inciarte there but they are mis-cast. Riley? I'm not a believer that he can be that good, especially not as a playable 3B - he's more likely to be a filler guy who is a 6,7 or 8 on a reasonably good team. So, unless Swanson can be the guy (which it doesn't appear that he can) the Braves are missing a core hitter and 2 core pitchers.

 

[Horsehide Harry]

Middle to back end rotation prospects? Wright, Gohara, and Soroka are our top 3 pitching prospects and are not back end guys. The farm is in excellent shape and we have another top 10 pick coming in a few months.

I try not to fall into the trap of thinking that since they are Braves prospects, they are better simply because I want them to be.

Wright and Soroka aren't in the top 10 RH pitching prospects in baseball right now. Is that an unbreakable gospel? Of course not. But it does show a snapshot of how they are considered.

Gohara is the 4th best LH. But Allard and Fried are 7 and 10 respectively and I don't think anyone believes that either of those two guys are destined for TOR responsibilities any time soon. Gohara at 4 isn't bad but he has huge questions.

Maybe one or more of those 3 CAN develop into better than a rotation #3. But they haven't done it yet and haven't shown overwhelming evidence of that potential.

 

[nsacpi]

Freeman and Inciarte I see. The other four (67%) are still prospects which means you are relying on prospects as the core of your team. That may be fine or may not.

I look at a core in a different way. I think you need a LO hitter (this should be a high OBP guy who plays a premium defensive position such as CF, SS or 2B). In your example I would say that Inciarte or Albies are superfluous to the other. I think you need a 3,4 and 5 hitter. You can call Freeman a 3 or 4, preferably a 4 since his speed is limited and will decline. Acuna might, maybe even should, be a 3 or 5. Let's say he is. And you need a #1 and #2 SP.

If you have that core, you have a good chance of building a team each year. Right now, the Braves have no one near a #1 or #2. They all are #3 quality or worse. Could that change? Sure, hopefully, maybe. I don't think it's going to be Teheran (declining and soon gone from control), Folty (headcase, getting expensive and soon gone from control) or Newk (too wild). So that pins the hopes on two of the 3 possibles in Gohara, Wright and Soroka.

Its not as if there is no room for failure. Wright is a pretty good possibility to step in if either Soroka or Gohara stumble.

I don't see Albies and Inciarte as being superfluous. The way teams look at their #2 hitter has evolved. Albies has a chance to develop some pop and be a perfect #2 hitter.

Nothing is guaranteed, but I think we are going to a lineup that for the 2019-2021 period will look mostly like this:

1. Inciarte
2. Albies
3. Freeman
4. Acuna
5. LF to be acquired
6. 3B to be acquired
7. Flowers (needs to be extented)
8. Swanson

Rotation will feature Soroka, Gohara, Wright as the core. Guys like Teheran, Folty and Newcomb might get traded as part of the packages that bring back a left fielder and third baseman.

Now for the more speculative part. How do you extent that competitive window. I think Pache projects as a replacement for Inciarte at some point. But probably not in the next three years. I'm hoping we can draft someone like Madrigal. He could potentially take over at third, short or the outfield. Maybe second if we move Albies to short.

So we have a chance to continue getting some very cheap production from guys like Pache and Madrigal beyond 2021. That's important for a mid-market team. And chances are we can develop a couple guys from Allard, Touki, Wilson, Anderson and Wentz to eventually handle the back end of the rotation. We don't need them to be stars. Just solid productive players at a very good price.

And as I've emphasized we need to draft very well once we start winning and have a lower draft position. To me that's going to be the real test of our organization. I'm not too impressed when a team with a high draft position and extra picks has a productive draft. I'm much more impressed by productive drafts on the part of teams who draft late.

 

[Horsehide Harry]

Its not as if there is no room for failure. Wright is a pretty good possibility to step in if either Soroka or Gohara stumble.

I don't see Albies and Inciarte as being superfluous. The way teams look at their #2 hitter has evolved. Albies has a chance to develop some pop and be a perfect #2 hitter.

Nothing is guaranteed, but I think we are going to a lineup that for the 2019-2021 period will look mostly like this:

1. Inciarte
2. Albies
3. Freeman
4. Acuna
5. LF to be acquired
6. 3B to be acquired
7. Flowers (needs to be extented)
8. Swanson

Rotation will feature Soroka, Gohara, Wright as the core. Guys like Teheran, Folty and Newcomb might get traded as part of the packages that bring back a left fielder and third baseman.

Now for the more speculative part. How do you extent that competitive window. I think Pache projects as a replacement for Inciarte at some point. But probably not in the next three years. I'm hoping we can draft someone like Madrigal. He could potentially take over at third, short or the outfield. Maybe second if we move Albies to short.

So we have a chance to continue getting some very cheap production from guys like Pache and Madrigal beyond 2021. That's important for a mid-market team. And chances are we can develop a couple guys from Allard, Touki, Wilson, Anderson and Wentz to eventually handle the back end of the rotation. We don't need them to be stars. Just solid productive players at a very good price.

And as I've emphasized we need to draft very well once we start winning and have a lower draft position. To me that's going to be the real test of our organization. I'm not too impressed when a team with a high draft position and extra picks has a productive draft. I'm much more impressed by productive drafts on the part of teams who draft late.

I think you and I are in pretty close agreement. I do feel that the poor returns of the early rebuild/reload and the loss of the 12 or so International prospects plus the #3 in this year's draft plus the inability to sign so called high end Internationals for a couple of years really limits any ability to have an extended window of competition. The poor early returns are putting the Braves in position to rush kids up and even if those kids are ready (Acuna, Albies) you lose the value of the guys who busted or near busted.

IF the Braves had a more robust payroll I might believe differently.

As for trading Freeman, as I said at the beginning, it would take a very specific return for me to pull the trigger. I admit that that return might not be there. But I wouldn't be afraid to do it.

 

[Enscheff]

Depending on the advancement of Paches hit tool this year I would expect Inciarte to be floated around at the deadline as a potential trade piece.

Yes, we will review the accuracy of your “Pache will make Ender expendable within the year” opinion when the time comes.

 

[Southcack77]

I try not to fall into the trap of thinking that since they are Braves prospects, they are better simply because I want them to be.

Wright and Soroka aren't in the top 10 RH pitching prospects in baseball right now. Is that an unbreakable gospel? Of course not. But it does show a snapshot of how they are considered.

Gohara is the 4th best LH. But Allard and Fried are 7 and 10 respectively and I don't think anyone believes that either of those two guys are destined for TOR responsibilities any time soon. Gohara at 4 isn't bad but he has huge questions.

Maybe one or more of those 3 CAN develop into better than a rotation #3. But they haven't done it yet and haven't shown overwhelming evidence of that potential.

We've been down this road before. I don't mind the thought experiment but you are pretty unfair to the Braves in deciding every break against them.

They have a lot of money to play with for free agents. They have a lot of prospect capital for use in trades. They have several more drafts to go before the existing prospect base runs out. You are basically projecting them to strike out in all of those areas and in fact to regress.

That could happen. Or just as possibly they could make good decisions and have good evaluations and trade players at the correct times rather than at the wrong times.

Even your Astros on a six year window could easily be said to be in the same place. There is too much unknown to really paint that picture with any certainty.

Personally, I think they have a credible core to at least explore. You have to give yourself a chance at some point.

 

[GeorgiaGirl]

The Braves definitely didn't maximize the rebuild as much as possible, but unless a lot of things go bad this year, you have to at least try at some point. If you have another season in which the young players don't make big contributions to winning/take steps forward, even with another likely non playoff team, you're likely in deep doodoo though.

Let's say this is a 75-78 win team. It'd be a successful season if Dansby showed something and you had your young studs that have had a great ST be a part of the top 4 players on the team, and you can build off of that. However, if you have the same season without the step forward from kids, you don't really have anything to build off of.

 

[Southcack77]

The Braves definitely didn't maximize the rebuild as much as possible, but unless a lot of things go bad this year, you have to at least try at some point. If you have another season in which the young players don't make big contributions to winning/take steps forward, even with another likely non playoff team, you're likely in deep doodoo though.

Let's say this is a 75-78 win team. It'd be a successful season if Dansby showed something and you had your young studs that have had a great ST be a part of the top 4 players on the team, and you can build off of that. However, if you have the same season without the step forward from kids, you don't really have anything to build off of.

I'm getting towards the point where I think the real question for Atlanta is going to be the pitching.

So, I think I would still feel really encouraged if they won 76 games but saw some encouraging things from Gohara, Newcomb, Soroka. Ultimately, if they don't have three or four homegrown rotation pieces that are better than fifth starters, they aren't going anywhere.

 

[Heyward]

Braves are pretty close to contention, so thats a no for me dawg.

 

[Horsehide Harry]

Braves are pretty close to contention, so thats a no for me dawg.

I maintain that there is a difference between being close to contention, marginally contending, and being a real player.

I think the Braves win about 75 games in 2018. Then probably go 82-85 in 2019 depending on internal development of pitchers and external signings to fill offensive holes. Then settle in at around 90 in 2020 and 2021. Then either lose Freeman and fall back a bit or re-sign Freeman (or someone to fill his WAR shoes) and stay at 90 or so for another year or two before running into the end of the control years of Swanson, Albies and Acuna.

During that time, they lose and replace a few salaries such as Markakis and Teheran but see the expense of the internal crop grow every year. Also, for the next couple of years or so, International talent would have to come from the low bonus variety, certainly possible but more risky. Also, if the record goes like I predict, they will start picking in the middle to back third of the draft, meaning you have to hope for an impact player or resign yourself to good complimentary players.

Now, if the payroll changes significantly and the Braves get to a. keep in house everyone they want to as they get more expensive and b. sign some real external talent that will fill holes, then the team might push up into real contender territory. Otherwise, its likely to be a tease followed by a let down in 4-5 years.

 

[Horsehide Harry]

We've been down this road before. I don't mind the thought experiment but you are pretty unfair to the Braves in deciding every break against them.

They have a lot of money to play with for free agents. They have a lot of prospect capital for use in trades. They have several more drafts to go before the existing prospect base runs out. You are basically projecting them to strike out in all of those areas and in fact to regress.

That could happen. Or just as possibly they could make good decisions and have good evaluations and trade players at the correct times rather than at the wrong times.

Even your Astros on a six year window could easily be said to be in the same place. There is too much unknown to really paint that picture with any certainty.

Personally, I think they have a credible core to at least explore. You have to give yourself a chance at some point.

Actually, I think I've been pretty fair.

I'm not projecting any of the pitchers to become annual Cy young candidates, but where have you seen any hint that we should? I've said that they mostly look like #3's. A couple have the potential to be better than that but they also have the potential to get hurt or bust completely. I have Acuna as an annual 4 WAR guy. Maybe he's better than that but he's done nothing at the ML level yet. I have Albies as an annual 4 WAR guy. Again maybe better (hopefully). I have Swanson as a 2 WAR guy. I may be a bit too optimistic on him. I also have Freeman slowly age declining. In the original post I had him as a 6/5/5/4 WAR guy for the rest of his current control with the Braves. Considering his career WAR profile (he's only surpassed 6 once and 4 twice, I don't see that as unreasonable.

I actually think Pache will be a good replacement for Inciarte in about 3 years and the Braves will get useful help from most of their high end pitchers.

But I'm not thethe for sure. He is Mister Brightside, all day, all the time. I think of myself as more Mr. Realistic. If I were Mr. Pessimistic, I would have Freeman missing a third of the season every other year and getting worse as he gets older. I would have Inciarte losing his range until he is a below average LF. I would have Swanson not surviving and Albies hitting a plateau with Acuna developing only into a so-so 3 WAR guy.

I DON'T like depending on luck for success as heavily as most seemed resigned to do.