There’s a Fckn Game Today, People

GovClintonTyree said:
No, of course not. But he is a good player and another year will give you more data points and confidence.

What is occuring to me is, he's a smart player. I listened to his 20 minute hitting conversation with DeRo and it was pretty clear he's got a plan and he's executing it better and better, and knows what helps him and what to leave behind. Seems to be a very good student.
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For sure. The most attractive piece of Riley’s career to me was always how he improved the second time through a league. That shows commitment. That shows intelligence. That shows preparedness. That shows repeatable skills.

Riley was always going to be good but I’d like to make sure he’s Scott Rolen before we pay him like he is. I know you agree so not arguing you on that point. Just for emphasis.
 
Enscheff said:
We can go on BaseballSavant and filter xBA on all out/hits, then remove HRs and Ks to get xBABIP based on batted ball velo and exit angle (but not on direction). Here is every Braves hitter with 50+ PAs actual BABIP vs xBABIP:


1 Riley, Austin .405 .355
2 Heredia, Guillermo .364 .356
3 Contreras, William .300 .371
4 Acuña Jr., Ronald .293 .337
5 Swanson, Dansby .282 .331
6 Albies, Ozzie .269 .321
7 d'Arnaud, Travis .262 .328
8 Adrianza, Ehire .250 .326
9 Ozuna, Marcell .244 .326
10 Freeman, Freddie .227 .344

That .355 xBABIP for Riley means he may not be due for as much regression as we think. It's only 121 balls in play though, and up to this point his xBABIP was in the .280s in previous seasons, so keep in mind the small sample size nature of these values.

No surprise to see Freeman getting absolutely hosed in BABIP though. That .344 value is right in line with his .337 career mark. The extent of this poor batted ball luck is truly remarkable. Maybe it will scare away the dumb teams likely to give him a stupid contract offer, and AA can sign him for reasonable money.
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Braves really have something with Contreras. I’d suspect his zone numbers aren’t great because I’ve seen lots of swings at pitches 6 inches or more off the plate but the guy makes great contact when it happens.
 
msstate7 said:
I can live with letting smyly face a lineup a 3rd time if it doesn't cost us a PH opportunity, and if snit has the pen ready going into the inning. Snit keeps throwing away PH opportunities, and then doesn't have the pen ready
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True. Snitker is the anti-Gene Mauch. Mauch had relievers up-and-down all the time during a game. Angels' LHP reliever of that era--Andy Hassler--did a running count of how many times he got up during the season and it was astronomical. Snitker always seems to be a step behind when it comes to the bullpen. Depending on the score, he should have someone warming up by the 4th innning whenever Smyly is on the mound.
 
McCann'sCans said:
PAs like the two-strike double off Nola last night just feel different for him these days. But as others have said, as much as I want to believe he has turned a corner for good, you wouldn't want to extend him based on the past 40 games. We've seen hot streaks from him before that have turned out to be a flash in the pan.

It would be nice to see a kind of ho hum but consistent summer from him.
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I just looked up his two-strike and pitcher-ahead splits this year compared to his career numbers (which include this year) and they are better (one has to account of the smaller sample size for 2021, but also note the level of improvement given that smaller sample size). It just seems (there's that word) that he is able to do more when behind in the count this year than in years past. I can remember watching him over the last few years thinking when he had two strikes on him, he may as well sit down and conserve his energy because nothing good was likely to happen.
 
Enscheff said:
We can go on BaseballSavant and filter xBA on all out/hits, then remove HRs and Ks to get xBABIP based on batted ball velo and launch angle (but not taking into account direction). Here is every Braves hitter with 50+ PAs actual BABIP vs xBABIP:


1 Riley, Austin .405 .355
2 Heredia, Guillermo .364 .356
3 Contreras, William .300 .371
4 Acuña Jr., Ronald .293 .337
5 Swanson, Dansby .282 .331
6 Albies, Ozzie .269 .321
7 d'Arnaud, Travis .262 .328
8 Adrianza, Ehire .250 .326
9 Ozuna, Marcell .244 .326
10 Freeman, Freddie .227 .344

That .355 xBABIP for Riley means he may not be due for as much regression as we think. It's only 121 balls in play though, and up to this point his xBABIP was in the .280s in previous seasons, so keep in mind the small sample size nature of these values.

No surprise to see Freeman getting absolutely hosed in BABIP though. That .344 value is right in line with his .337 career mark. The extent of his poor batted ball luck is truly remarkable. Maybe it will scare away the dumb teams likely to give him a stupid contract offer, and AA can sign him for reasonable money. He isn't declining at all right now, even though his results seems to indicate he is.

We also see pretty much every Braves hitter getting screwed on BABIP luck...but we already knew that about this offense so far in 2021.
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Nice work. I knew there must be a way to do that but had no idea where to start. Thanks.
 
50PoundHead said:
I just looked up his two-strike and pitcher-ahead splits this year compared to his career numbers (which include this year) and they are better (one has to account of the smaller sample size for 2021, but also note the level of improvement given that smaller sample size). It just seems (there's that word) that he is able to do more when behind in the count this year than in years past. I can remember watching him over the last few years thinking when he had two strikes on him, he may as well sit down and conserve his energy because nothing good was likely to happen.
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That was Swanson first couple years too
 
50PoundHead said:
I just looked up his two-strike and pitcher-ahead splits this year compared to his career numbers (which include this year) and they are better (one has to account of the smaller sample size for 2021, but also note the level of improvement given that smaller sample size). It just seems (there's that word) that he is able to do more when behind in the count this year than in years past. I can remember watching him over the last few years thinking when he had two strikes on him, he may as well sit down and conserve his energy because nothing good was likely to happen.
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Always nice when the data backs up what you think you're seeing- thanks for checking the splits.

I think in that at-bat Nola got him down 0-2 with two fastballs up and then threw two curves low and away. Felt like that was a guaranteed flail and miss in the past for Riley. Not to sound like Chip, but instead, he took a ball and then had a good two-strike approach and hit a solid line drive to right-center.

As dumb as it is to oversimplify his progression to a single AB, I keep going back to that walk he took vs. Chapman in New York. I remember feeling at the time like that AB in particular looked very out of character for him both in how he was seeing the ball and how he was fighting off tough pitches. The next day he took two more walks and went 2-2 with his first HR of the year and it was kind of off to the races from there.
 
Enscheff said:
We can go on BaseballSavant and filter xBA on all out/hits, then remove HRs and Ks to get xBABIP based on batted ball velo and launch angle (but not taking into account direction). Here is every Braves hitter with 50+ PAs actual BABIP vs xBABIP:


1 Riley, Austin .405 .355
2 Heredia, Guillermo .364 .356
3 Contreras, William .300 .371
4 Acuña Jr., Ronald .293 .337
5 Swanson, Dansby .282 .331
6 Albies, Ozzie .269 .321
7 d'Arnaud, Travis .262 .328
8 Adrianza, Ehire .250 .326
9 Ozuna, Marcell .244 .326
10 Freeman, Freddie .227 .344

That .355 xBABIP for Riley means he may not be due for as much regression as we think. It's only 121 balls in play though, and up to this point his xBABIP was in the .280s in previous seasons, so keep in mind the small sample size nature of these values.

No surprise to see Freeman getting absolutely hosed in BABIP though. That .344 value is right in line with his .337 career mark. The extent of his poor batted ball luck is truly remarkable. Maybe it will scare away the dumb teams likely to give him a stupid contract offer, and AA can sign him for reasonable money. He isn't declining at all right now, even though his results seems to indicate he is.

We also see pretty much every Braves hitter getting screwed on BABIP luck...but we already knew that about this offense so far in 2021.
Click to expand...

Let me ask you this, and may be a dumb question. But how much of the Braves poor BABIP luck has to do with the shift other teams are employing against them?
 
NYCBrave said:
Let me ask you this, and may be a dumb question. But how much of the Braves poor BABIP luck has to do with the shift other teams are employing against them?
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No idea, but I have to imagine all teams are shifting against all competition equally, so whatever effects those shifts have on the Braves should be happening to other teams as well.
 
Enscheff said:
No idea, but I have to imagine all teams are shifting against all competition equally, so whatever effects those shifts have on the Braves should be happening to other teams as well.
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Should be noted the Braves have a .299 BABIP the last month of play. So things have corrected themselves as it usually does.
 
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