nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
It is going to be very interesting to see how the situations at third and center play out over the next year. There are lots of moving parts involved and quite a few possible scenarios.
The pieces on the board include:
1) Two weak incumbents whose production is toward the bottom of the range for major league starters at their positions.
2) One top tier prospect (Peraza) who doesn't play either position, but probably has the ability to do so at an acceptable level in the majors.
3) Two solid second tier prospects (Kubitza and Wren) who project more as major league bench players but who have a chance to develop into starters.
4) Some third tier prospects who mostly likely will not be part of the long-term solution, but could fill in on a short-term basis. Cunningham in center and Castro, Elmer Reyes, and Gosselin at third.
The scenarios include:
1) Best case. The incumbents step up their games and produce at an average or above average level for starters their position, and the prospects develop. In this scenario we can trade one or both incumbents, creating payroll flexibility and strengthening the team elsewhere.
2) Worst case. The incumbents fail to produce at a level above replacement level and the prospects fail to develop. In this scenario the team either has to tolerate poor performances from two starters or must trade from other areas to shore up those two positions. The possibility of eating additional bad contracts arises.
3) Intermediate scenarios include one but not both incumbents stepping up and one but no more than one prospect developing. In this scenario we can fill in the remaining weak spot internally but there is no surplus to deal away. There remains a potential need to eat at least part of a bad contract.
My guess is that some sort of intermediate scenario is most likely. I won't hazard a guess as to which of BJ or CJ is the most likely to step up his game. I find myself rooting for both but I'm not overly optimistic about either. I also think the odds are less than 50% than more than one of our players on the farm develop into starting caliber players at third or center.
The pieces on the board include:
1) Two weak incumbents whose production is toward the bottom of the range for major league starters at their positions.
2) One top tier prospect (Peraza) who doesn't play either position, but probably has the ability to do so at an acceptable level in the majors.
3) Two solid second tier prospects (Kubitza and Wren) who project more as major league bench players but who have a chance to develop into starters.
4) Some third tier prospects who mostly likely will not be part of the long-term solution, but could fill in on a short-term basis. Cunningham in center and Castro, Elmer Reyes, and Gosselin at third.
The scenarios include:
1) Best case. The incumbents step up their games and produce at an average or above average level for starters their position, and the prospects develop. In this scenario we can trade one or both incumbents, creating payroll flexibility and strengthening the team elsewhere.
2) Worst case. The incumbents fail to produce at a level above replacement level and the prospects fail to develop. In this scenario the team either has to tolerate poor performances from two starters or must trade from other areas to shore up those two positions. The possibility of eating additional bad contracts arises.
3) Intermediate scenarios include one but not both incumbents stepping up and one but no more than one prospect developing. In this scenario we can fill in the remaining weak spot internally but there is no surplus to deal away. There remains a potential need to eat at least part of a bad contract.
My guess is that some sort of intermediate scenario is most likely. I won't hazard a guess as to which of BJ or CJ is the most likely to step up his game. I find myself rooting for both but I'm not overly optimistic about either. I also think the odds are less than 50% than more than one of our players on the farm develop into starting caliber players at third or center.
