50PoundHead
Hessmania Forever
I think full-time SRod would be a bad plan.
Third Basemen in the System
- Thread starter nsacpi
- Start date
I think full-time SRod would be a bad plan.
I wouldn't either, but he's going to get a longer deal than that given the year he is having right now. If we could get him for 4 years he'd be a perfect fit, but I don't see that happening given this is his chance to get a long term deal during his peak.
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
We have to find someone with a favorable risk/return profile, who can give us 2 wins or more at third. There are other options.
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
The situation at third has become quite fluid. Freeman at least looks the part so far early in the experiment. I've expressed some doubts about the experiment but the team should continue with it for at least a few more weeks. It also appears likely that Sean Rodriguez will be activated soon after the break. He may play some other position(s) but will certainly be another option at third.
In terms of the minor league guys, Demeritte and Riley have been struggling in the past month. I think those two will probably have to repeat at their current levels.
I do want to say a few things about Ruiz and Camargo, mostly centered around BABIP. Ruiz put up a BABIP of .222 in his brief stint in the majors. He has been hitting better in AAA since his demotion and his BABIP there is .336, pretty much in line with career norms. I don't want to overstate the case for Ruiz as a regular major league third baseman, but he is a much better hitter than he showed in his 91 major league plate appearances this year.
In contrast, Camargo has put up a BABIP of .378 in 101 major league plate appearances so far this year. In AAA, he had a BABIP of .340, which itself is at the high end of what he has typically achieved in his prior minor league seasons. I like Camargo as a utility player. He seems to be developing some doubles power. I think he has an outside shot as a regular (as does Ruiz). But be aware that the BABIP gods are a fickle lot. More telling to me is the 23% strikeout rate that Camargo is carrying so far in the majors. I've made a similar point with respect to Swanson (whose strikeout rate went down in June but is back up this month). A strikeout rate north of 20% for a player who does not have much power ultimately will make it very difficult for that player to be a productive hitter.
In terms of the minor league guys, Demeritte and Riley have been struggling in the past month. I think those two will probably have to repeat at their current levels.
I do want to say a few things about Ruiz and Camargo, mostly centered around BABIP. Ruiz put up a BABIP of .222 in his brief stint in the majors. He has been hitting better in AAA since his demotion and his BABIP there is .336, pretty much in line with career norms. I don't want to overstate the case for Ruiz as a regular major league third baseman, but he is a much better hitter than he showed in his 91 major league plate appearances this year.
In contrast, Camargo has put up a BABIP of .378 in 101 major league plate appearances so far this year. In AAA, he had a BABIP of .340, which itself is at the high end of what he has typically achieved in his prior minor league seasons. I like Camargo as a utility player. He seems to be developing some doubles power. I think he has an outside shot as a regular (as does Ruiz). But be aware that the BABIP gods are a fickle lot. More telling to me is the 23% strikeout rate that Camargo is carrying so far in the majors. I've made a similar point with respect to Swanson (whose strikeout rate went down in June but is back up this month). A strikeout rate north of 20% for a player who does not have much power ultimately will make it very difficult for that player to be a productive hitter.
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
Season's nearing an end, time for an update on what we have in-house at third.
Riley has done very well in 194 AA plate appearances. But dig a little deeper and we see a BABIP of .374 (he was at .289 at high A). This effectively masked a spike in his strikeout rate to 25.3% in AA from 21.8 in high A. Also worthy of consideration is that the sample at High A consisted of 339 plate appearances and should probably be given more weight than the significantly smaller sample in AA.
Ruiz hit better in AAA after his demotion. But as with Riley if you just emphasize his hot streaks and ignore his struggles, you aren't going to get as good a picture as if you take the entire sample into account. And that sample shows a AAA slash line this year of .247/.322/.446. Relative to last year, when he was also in AAA, the strikeout rate was up, the walk rate was down, but the ISO showed a nice increase.
I don't think either Ruiz or Riley projects as a major league regular. But there is still a plausible scenario out there where they form an effective platoon.
I also want to touch on Johan Camargo, who has had a very nice season both in AAA and the majors. As is often the case, the most informative number is his BABIP, which was .340 in AAA and .364 in the majors. The .364 in the majors masked a problematic strikeout rate (21.8%).
The most intriguing thing about Camargo are indications that the power is starting to develop. His ISO numbers both in AAA and the majors were up significantly from prior seasons. I can see a scenario where the strikeout rate drops below 20%, the ISO improvement is sustained and the BABIP stabilizes at about .320. Couple that with strong defense and your would have an acceptable everyday major league third baseman. However, I put the odds of that kind of scenario at 30-40%.
To me Camargo has a better chance than Riley or Ruiz of developing into a solid everyday player, but the odds are still less than 50%. However, the three of them collectively have enough promise that I'd be inclined not to invest in an everyday third baseman this off-season. I'd let the internal options play out for at least the first half of 2018.
Riley has done very well in 194 AA plate appearances. But dig a little deeper and we see a BABIP of .374 (he was at .289 at high A). This effectively masked a spike in his strikeout rate to 25.3% in AA from 21.8 in high A. Also worthy of consideration is that the sample at High A consisted of 339 plate appearances and should probably be given more weight than the significantly smaller sample in AA.
Ruiz hit better in AAA after his demotion. But as with Riley if you just emphasize his hot streaks and ignore his struggles, you aren't going to get as good a picture as if you take the entire sample into account. And that sample shows a AAA slash line this year of .247/.322/.446. Relative to last year, when he was also in AAA, the strikeout rate was up, the walk rate was down, but the ISO showed a nice increase.
I don't think either Ruiz or Riley projects as a major league regular. But there is still a plausible scenario out there where they form an effective platoon.
I also want to touch on Johan Camargo, who has had a very nice season both in AAA and the majors. As is often the case, the most informative number is his BABIP, which was .340 in AAA and .364 in the majors. The .364 in the majors masked a problematic strikeout rate (21.8%).
The most intriguing thing about Camargo are indications that the power is starting to develop. His ISO numbers both in AAA and the majors were up significantly from prior seasons. I can see a scenario where the strikeout rate drops below 20%, the ISO improvement is sustained and the BABIP stabilizes at about .320. Couple that with strong defense and your would have an acceptable everyday major league third baseman. However, I put the odds of that kind of scenario at 30-40%.
To me Camargo has a better chance than Riley or Ruiz of developing into a solid everyday player, but the odds are still less than 50%. However, the three of them collectively have enough promise that I'd be inclined not to invest in an everyday third baseman this off-season. I'd let the internal options play out for at least the first half of 2018.