THURSDAY MINORS FINAL 6/20/19; Big night for Pache

[nsacpi]

i'm not sure what this has to do with Langerlier's and Shewmake's ceiling. i do think Langeliers could probably get that in Japan tho. Stewart did after a poor season.

I didn't realize Scott Boras was Carter's agent. Or maybe he wasn't his agent last year in negotiations with the Braves. But Boras sees this deal with Japan as a way to increase leverage for drafted players. Maybe, maybe not.

 

[nsacpi]

Agreed. A top notch defensive catcher that can and has shown data that the bat could be plus is a HUGE ceiling.

I think folks think we are getting a player that is finished and can't improve which newsflash is what the minors is for.

Hold on a second. Presumably the minors are there to help any player selected with that pick. Whether it be Langeliers, Hunter, Carroll, Rutledge or Manoah. The question is which one can potentially improve the most with expert instruction. That's how I see it. I'm not arguing that Langeliers or any player is a finished product.

 

[TheBravos]

Eh....really any player by the nine pick had some warts. He saved us enough money to nab some other players also. Should at worst be a back up catcher. As long as he doesn’t flame out and if one of those other picks signed with the money saved turns out...it will be good.

 

[Super]

Eh....really any player by the nine pick had some warts. He saved us enough money to nab some other players also. Should at worst be a back up catcher. As long as he doesn’t flame out and if one of those other picks signed with the money saved turns out...it will be good.

i think a floor of Austin Hedges isn't bad and i can see that. not much with the bat but his defense allows him to put up seasons of over 2 fWAR. plus he's only 26 and catchers are weird, so his bat could improve. need to be really patient with catchers, especially great defensive ones IMO.

 

[Tapate50]

Hold on a second. Presumably the minors are there to help any player selected with that pick. Whether it be Langeliers, Hunter, Carroll, Rutledge or Manoah. The question is which one can potentially improve the most with expert instruction. That's how I see it. I'm not arguing that Langeliers or any player is a finished product.

Of course, but the player is already pretty solid comparatively to those guys. He isn’t a low ceiling player at all. It’s more high floor. He has pop and we have heard the data on the swing , so if that clicks you are looking at a pretty high ceiling as well.

The low ceiling projections from the negative nancies is overplayed.

 

[Southcack77]

i think a floor of Austin Hedges isn't bad and i can see that. not much with the bat but his defense allows him to put up seasons of over 2 fWAR. plus he's only 26 and catchers are weird, so his bat could improve. need to be really patient with catchers, especially great defensive ones IMO.

Hedges probably profiled as a better defender, but lesser bat.

 

[Southcack77]

Of course, but the player is already pretty solid comparatively to those guys. He isn’t a low ceiling player at all. It’s more high floor. He has pop and we have heard the data on the swing , so if that clicks you are looking at a pretty high ceiling as well.

The low ceiling projections from the negative nancies is overplayed.

The best case on Bishop is probably .260 40 HRs average defense in LF.

The best case on Langeliers is probably .270 20 HRs, top end defense at C.

One of those is a better bat, but not sure which is the better overall player. Depends on one's outlook and valuation of defense and position scarcity.

 

[nsacpi]

Of course, but the player is already pretty solid comparatively to those guys. He isn’t a low ceiling player at all. It’s more high floor. He has pop and we have heard the data on the swing , so if that clicks you are looking at a pretty high ceiling as well.

The low ceiling projections from the negative nancies is overplayed.

Maybe the negative nancies are overplaying it. But I think there some alternatives at pick #9 who were generally seen as having a higher ceiling.

 

[Tapate50]

The best case on Bishop is probably .260 40 HRs average defense in LF.

The best case on Langeliers is probably .270 20 HRs, top end defense at C.

One of those is a better bat, but not sure which is the better overall player. Depends on one's outlook and valuation of defense and position scarcity.

And also the likelihood of either reaching those levels.

 

[Southcack77]

And also the likelihood of either reaching those levels.

Probably pretty low on both, like most prospects.

I know people around here got hard over Carroll for some reason (and to be fair, I probably liked Rutledge more than he actually deserved), but the draft really lacked a depth of players to dream on. There just were not a ton of guys after the first 6 or 7 that checked all the boxes.

 

[Super]

Maybe the negative nancies are overplaying it. But I think there some alternatives at pick #9 who were generally seen as having a higher ceiling.

i mean i don't think anyone said Langeliers had the highest ceiling available. just that his ceiling is being undersold. i think you have to factor risk into it all and a guy like Bishop is super risky for me.

 

[nsacpi]

The downside for any player is bust. And college catchers with seemingly low downside taken in the first round also bust. Completely. Does the name Tony Sanchez ring a bell? That's part of the reason why in the first round you focus on ceiling not floor. The floor for any player is total bust, no matter how seemingly polished and advanced they may seem.

 

[msstate7]

The downside for any player is bust. And college catchers with seemingly low downside taken in the first round also bust. Completely. Does the name Tony Sanchez ring a bell? That's part of the reason why in the first round you focus on ceiling not floor. The floor for any player is total bust, no matter how seemingly polished and advanced they may seem.

Maybe the braves don't see Lang and shewmake's ceiling as low as you do

 

[Super]

Maybe the braves don't see Lang and shewmake's ceiling as low as you do

correct. this is what i don't understand and have been saying. Langeliers' ceiling isn't nearly as low as people seem to think. and i don't think the 8 picks in front of Langeliers all went for highest possible upside. you simply have to factor in risk as well when picking in the top-10. risk is much lower than on someone like Bishop IMO and upside isn't much lower.

 

[nsacpi]

Maybe the braves don't see Lang and shewmake's ceiling as low as you do

could be...and I hope they are right

 

[nsacpi]

correct. this is what i don't understand and have been saying. Langeliers' ceiling isn't nearly as low as people seem to think. and i don't think the 8 picks in front of Langeliers all went for highest possible upside. you simply have to factor in risk as well when picking in the top-10. risk is much lower than on someone like Bishop IMO and upside isn't much lower.

the top 6 picks pretty much separated themselves in this draft...I don't think there is much doubt we would have taken any of them if they had dropped to #9

 

[Super]

the top 6 picks pretty much separated themselves in this draft...I don't think there is much doubt we would have taken any of them if they had dropped to #9

sure. i'm saying you could easily argue Bleday or Abrams have more upside than, say, Vaughn.

 

[nsacpi]

sure. i'm saying you could easily argue Bleday or Abrams have more upside than, say, Vaughn.

At the risk of seemingly being inconsistent, while I think ceiling should be the main consideration in the first round, I've always thought floor can come into play more at the very top of the draft. The top 4 or 5 players. This is because at that end of the draft all the players have very high ceilings and it is reasonable to look at their floors too in trying to distinguish between them. And that kind of thought process might have tipped the scales toward Vaughn over Bleday and Abrams.

Obviously I don't have all the information the teams do, but for me the top 2 guys in this year's draft were Rutschman and Abrams.

 

[Super]

At the risk of seemingly being inconsistent, while I think ceiling should be the main consideration in the first round, I've always thought floor can come into play more at the very top of the draft. The top 4 or 5 players. This is because at that end of the draft all the players have very high ceilings and it is reasonable to look at their floors too in trying to distinguish between them. And that kind of thought process might have tipped the scales toward Vaughn over Bleday and Abrams.

Obviously I don't have all the information the teams do, but for me the top 2 guys in this year's draft were Rutschman and Abrams.

congratulations, you have made my argument for Langeliers for me lol

 

[nsacpi]

congratulations, you have made my argument for Langeliers for me lol

actually I don't think so...I'm making a distinction between how my thought process works for the very top of the draft versus the rest of the first round