To trade or not to trade

It just doesn’t make any sense to trade Inciarte unless we acquire another quality CFer. I also don’t think he has much trade value. If nothing else, Inciarte is the perfect 4th outfielder.
 
depends upon return

but considering we are a contending team (currently the second wild card team), the focus this mid-season is likely to be on what we need not what we are trying to move
 
WWTDD? What Would The Dodgers Do? That answer is usually the correct answer, and is what AA is likely to do.

The Dodgers would keep the MLB caliber CFer after he rehabs a bit in the minors, even if he didn't play 150+ games, option Camargo to AAA (or do something clever with Joyce) for additional depth, and enjoy having a deep and talented roster. That depth protects against injury to several players, as well as insurance in case Riley's luck ever runs out.

What the Dodgers wouldn't do is sell low on a recently injured 3 win player under reasonably priced team control for multiple years. I'm going to guess that won't be AA's move either.
 
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There is also the likelihood of additional injuries. At the moment our depth in terms of position players is being pushed to its limit with Inciarte and Duvall injured. If someone gets hurt in the next game we would have to turn to a replacement level player in Gwinnett (sorry Travis Demeritte fans).
 
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Russ2dollas said:
You do not trade him now.

You might in the off-season.

Pache and waters are not options for next year imo.
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You do not trade him now.
I just can not see how.
Maybe in the offseason.
But there has to be a reason.
Pache is not too far.
But Waters got the car.
Ender needs to stay.
Even if he does not play.
 
bravesfanMatt said:
You do not trade him now.
I just can not see how.
Maybe in the offseason.
But there has to be a reason.
Pache is not too far.
But Waters got the car.
Ender needs to stay.
Even if he does not play.
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I'd trade Inciarte this year if he brought back something that made the team better. But more likely, you would move him this winter.

Dumping him probably doesn't make sense in the present tense. Something to be considered over the winter if it comes to that. I think 8m is actually a lot for the Braves and for his likely role, but it doesn't break the bank.
 
Enscheff said:
WWTDD? What Would The Dodgers Do? That answer is usually the correct answer, and is what AA is likely to do.

The Dodgers would keep the MLB caliber CFer after he rehabs a bit in the minors, even if he didn't play 150+ games, option Camargo to AAA (or do something clever with Joyce) for additional depth, and enjoy having a deep and talented roster. That depth protects against injury to several players, as well as insurance in case Riley's luck ever runs out.

What the Dodgers wouldn't do is sell low on a recently injured 3 win player under reasonably priced team control for multiple years. I'm going to guess that won't be AA's move either.
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I think the question is whether the Dodgers would be interested in Inciarte if he were on the open market. Pretty sure they'd be out. They pretty clearly seem to want offense from everyone who steps on the field.
 
Enscheff said:
WWTDD? What Would The Dodgers Do? That answer is usually the correct answer, and is what AA is likely to do.

The Dodgers would keep the MLB caliber CFer after he rehabs a bit in the minors, even if he didn't play 150+ games, option Camargo to AAA (or do something clever with Joyce) for additional depth, and enjoy having a deep and talented roster. That depth protects against injury to several players, as well as insurance in case Riley's luck ever runs out.

What the Dodgers wouldn't do is sell low on a recently injured 3 win player under reasonably priced team control for multiple years. I'm going to guess that won't be AA's move either.
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The problem with this is that the Braves are not the Dodgers. They don't apparently have anywhere near the financial resources of the Dodgers which has to be part of the thinking. Yes, Ender is on a relatively good contract but he's owed 7/8/9(with a $1M buyout) the next three years. So, I think they will probably have to trade him at some point. In fact, they should have traded him this offseason, assuming a good partner.

Now, they have to play him, re-hab his value if possible, then trade him. That's an easy thing to do on a non-competing club. Not easy to do when a players struggles start costing a team wins.

The Braves shouldn't sell low on Ender but they may have no choice.

Camargo should be in AAA re-habbing his value regardless of Inciarte. Camargo has shown he's not ready for the role they are asking of him. Maybe he has to play everyday to be valuable.

I would send Camargo to AAA and recall Duvall ASAP, play Ender in CF and hope his renewed health shows he's not finished and use him in a trade package at the deadline, maybe to the Indians for Hand or Kluber.
 
I do believe Pache is a legit 2020 option for most of the season unless what I've read is false or he just stinks it up big time once he goes to AAA (which WILL most likely happen sometime this year, AA isn't stupidly aggressive like previous FOs but he is fairly aggressive). Supposedly, the Braves view Pache's defense as Andrelton caliber good in CF and better than Inciarte already so they might be happy with just putting up with him having a few extra growing pains on offense due to that and bring him up for most of 2020.

On the other hand? 2020 most likely won't be the year of the Waters, IMHO. Waters most likely does have the better hit tool over Pache but because his defense is not quite as good and he's a switch hitter, I think it's likely they keep him down for at least half of 2020 unless he pulls a Riley and just destroys it next year.
 
Horsehide Harry said:
The problem with this is that the Braves are not the Dodgers. They don't apparently have anywhere near the financial resources of the Dodgers which has to be part of the thinking. Yes, Ender is on a relatively good contract but he's owed 7/8/9(with a $1M buyout) the next three years. So, I think they will probably have to trade him at some point. In fact, they should have traded him this offseason, assuming a good partner.

Now, they have to play him, re-hab his value if possible, then trade him. That's an easy thing to do on a non-competing club. Not easy to do when a players struggles start costing a team wins.

The Braves shouldn't sell low on Ender but they may have no choice.

Camargo should be in AAA re-habbing his value regardless of Inciarte. Camargo has shown he's not ready for the role they are asking of him. Maybe he has to play everyday to be valuable.

I would send Camargo to AAA and recall Duvall ASAP, play Ender in CF and hope his renewed health shows he's not finished and use him in a trade package at the deadline, maybe to the Indians for Hand or Kluber.
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I don't have a problem with keeping Ender, but in an earlier thread, I made the point that if he's just going to a be a 350 AB caddy, that might not be the best use of the asset. I think that is what you are driving at here. Braves might be better served trading him for an asset that will be of greater use. Granted, that is short-term thinking.

The other thing to keep in mind is that with the DH coming, it may serve the team well to keep Ender around. Add to that, we don't know what they will do with Donaldson during the coming off-season. Both Pache and Waters are having extreme K-rate issues in AA and those have to be ironed out before they are ready for prime time. Lots of moving parts and we'll have to find out if Ender is healthy before anything could happen in any direction.
 
I don't think they have any problem allocating cash to maintain MLB quality depth. The Braves are paying Duvall $3M to be a AAA depth OFer. They paid Venters a lot of money to be a low leverage LOOGY. Inciarte is a proven 3 win player who was probably hampered by that back for a large portion of this season, so their expectation is most likely that he's still an average or better MLB OFer overall moving forward.

The 2020 opening day OF mix is probably going to be Acuna, Inciarte, Markakis for $4M, plus Riley if JD is healthy and accepts the QO or another OFer along the lines of Ozuna if JD goes elsewhere. Another 1-2 spare parts like Joyce will also be in the mix, and Culberson is still going to be an option off the bench. Pache and Waters will probably not be ready by opening day next year, but they will likely be ready to help out sometime in 2020.
 
I think the decision making has to begin with an assessment of what kind of player Ender is right now and will be next season rather than what he's been the last three years.

He's been in gradual decline for awhile. Now you're throwing a significant soft tissue injury that can be chronic into the mix.

His numbers this year would make him no value at all. Maybe that's all acute injury. Maybe it's not.
 
Devil's Advocate here ... this isn't a position I hold, so my defense of it will likely be weak. Would you consider trading Donaldson?

Assume:

-The Braves, as contructed, have a great shot at a division title, but a very poor shot at a World Series.
-A Team that's not in serious contention for a WS doesn't need a $23mm third baseman.
-Riley is ready to play third base pretty much full-time.
-Some platoon combination of Joyce and Duvall (or even Ender) could provide adequate offense in the outfield.
-A contender needs an elite third baseman (Yankees?) and has arms to spare.
-The Braves would be better with more bullpen pieces than with Donaldson.

Just a wacky thought....
 
JohnAdcox said:
Devil's Advocate here ... this isn't a position I hold, so my defense of it will likely be weak. Would you consider trading Donaldson?

Assume:

-The Braves, as contructed, have a great shot at a division title, but a very poor shot at a World Series.
-A Team that's not in serious contention for a WS doesn't need a $23mm third baseman.
-Riley is ready to play third base pretty much full-time.
-Some platoon combination of Joyce and Duvall (or even Ender) could provide adequate offense in the outfield.
-A contender needs an elite third baseman (Yankees?) and has arms to spare.
-The Braves would be better with more bullpen pieces than with Donaldson.

Just a wacky thought....
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Better put your helmet on - I suggested the same thing a little while back, and you'd think the sky was on fire.

JD to the Yankees for Frazier. Ender to SF for Will Smith and Tony Watson. Sign Kimbrel to a deal for the rest of this season and 2020. Pen gets the serious upgrade it needs - Kimbrel, Smith, Jackson, Watson, Touki, Minter, Sobotka, Tomlin. Newk goes back to starting in Gwinnett to see if his pen stretch "cured" him like Fried's supposedly did. Acuna plays CF next year while you game Pache's clock, then slides over to RF and makes Markakis a pinch-hitter/platoon partner for Frazier.
 
JohnAdcox said:
Devil's Advocate here ... this isn't a position I hold, so my defense of it will likely be weak. Would you consider trading Donaldson?

Assume:

-The Braves, as contructed, have a great shot at a division title, but a very poor shot at a World Series.
-A Team that's not in serious contention for a WS doesn't need a $23mm third baseman.
-Riley is ready to play third base pretty much full-time.
-Some platoon combination of Joyce and Duvall (or even Ender) could provide adequate offense in the outfield.
-A contender needs an elite third baseman (Yankees?) and has arms to spare.
-The Braves would be better with more bullpen pieces than with Donaldson.

Just a wacky thought....
Click to expand...

The fact this was a clv-special should tell you all you need to know about this idea...

Respectfully, here are the holes in this idea:

- As evidenced by the JDM trade, rental sluggers don't return much at all at the trade deadline.
- The notion the Braves could get a position prospect like Frazier for 2 months of JD is asinine.
- If the Braves made the postseason, they would have a roughly 7%-8% chance to win the WS.
- Postseason appearances generate a lot of (future) revenue, so it's not "WS or bust".
- Teams with postseason aspirations are not going to trade away a 4 win player.
- There are many other ways to improve the BP that don't involve losing a 4 win player.
- Downgrading from a 4 win star to a platoon involving a recently demoted player is counterproductive.
- The MLB bench would be weaker, and there would be less insurance against injury.

I'm sure others can politely point out other glaring holes in this clv-special...

The only scenario where a JD trade makes sense is if the Braves fall out of contention by late July. What the threshold is that constitutes "out of contention" is open for debate, but I would suggest it is anything under ~10% of making the playoffs. The Braves playoff odds currently sit at 55.1%, so they have a ways to fall for this scenario to occur.
 
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