TOP 30 PROSPECTS: New Year's Eve Edition
- Thread starter rico43
- Start date
Agreed. All he does is get on base and steal bases, all while playing what I assume must be an adequate CF.
Maybe because he is only 5'9?
I think it mostly comes down to them simply questioning his hit tool. Those fears have been lessened some by what he's done the last couple years at higher levels, but the question is still there as to whether or not he'll hit major league pitching well enough. He uses bunts effectively right now to help his BA, but that will at least be lessened somewhat in the majors. And his K-rate isn't astronomical, but for a slap hitter it's pretty high in the minors. He needs to at least keep it where it is in the majors; if it goes up, that's trouble. So that's basically what it is. Obviously if he can hit .275 or above, he should be good enough to be an everyday CF. But if he doesn't, then he probably isn't.
On Peraza, I think people are going too far the other way now toward the 'he has no power and can't get on base, so he'll have to hit .300'. First, he's 21 and in AAA. You have to believe his ability to draw a walk and his power will both improve at least somewhat. He had an ISO over .100 as a 20-year-old in AA with 11 XBH in 185 AB, so I think a slash line of .300/.340/.400 is not too optimistic for him to hit in the majors at a fairly young age. With his defense (especially at SS) and speed, he's easily an above-average major-leaguer with those numbers.
If he hits more like .280/.310/.350, obviously that's not as good, but I would be pretty surprised if that's all he ever becomes. And even still, with his defense and speed, he would still be an everyday player at SS with those numbers.
I think we should trade him simply because we don't really have a spot for him and he could be valuable as an asset, but I think his potential is higher than a lot of our fans are currently giving him credit for.
Russ2dollas
10 yr, $185 million Extension
Play better in CF per reports....I've never seen him, so it's just what I've read
Not be so small
Hit for some power
K less
You're talking about Juan Pierre to Kenny Loften for this guy. Not Andruw Jones. So it's hard to go over the moon.
He also has the issue that our team seems to be filled with no power, small guys and he'd be another.
I'm in the Mallex camp. I just see him as a 9 or 8 hitter that allows us to move Maybin and/or Peraza for something else. I believe Peraza has to be a BIG attraction to a team looking for a SS. I don't see his value in the OF at all. We need to get a corner OF that can hit and hit for power w/o being an embarrassment in the field. Who would have thought 10 years ago that LF would be so hard find?
yeezus
It's OVER 5,000!
A good comp for Mallex, minor league numbers wise, looks like Brett Gardner. Look at his stats in the minors. He struck out a touch too much at some levels, but walked a lot and always had the steals. Gardner didn't really flash the power he's hit for recently, either. Not saying Mallex will ever hit for as much power as Gardner is.
Yeah, they do look similar. Mallex's numbers actually look a little better in the minors, and he's doing it at a younger age.
I took a quick look at Lofton's minor league numbers, just to compare. Interestingly, he didn't play in AA when climbing through the ranks. Went straight from A+ to AAA.
Lofton:
22 years old in A-/A: .292/.372/.344, 40 SB in 51 tries (78%), 7 XBH in 192 AB.
23 years old in A+: .331/.407/.395, 62 SB in 78 tries (79%), 22 XBH in 481 AB.
24 years old in AAA: .308/.367/.417, 40 SB in 63 tries (63%), 38 XBH in 545 AB (big spike in 3B).
Smith:
20 years old in A: .262/.367/.340, 64 SB in 80 tries (80%), 23 XBH in 424 AB.
21 years old in A/A+: .310/.403/.432, 88 SB in 114 tries (77%), 41 XBH in 477 AB (big spike in 2B)
22 years old in AA: .340/.418/.413, 23 SB in 29 tries (79%), 9 XBH in 206 AB.
Pretty similar stuff, despite Smith being about 2 years younger, since he was drafted young out of JUCO and Lofton came out after 3 years at Arizona. Mallex has shown slightly better on-base skills with slightly better power as well, at least until Lofton broke out a little in that department in AAA.
Lofton wasn't considered much of a prospect until after his 23-year-old season in A+ and flew up prospects boards to become a top-30 guy after his AAA season. He was a little bigger than Mallex, so he probably ended up with more power than Mallex will ever have, but I think the comparison is a pretty good one, at least as prospects. Lofton ended up being better than probably anyone would have guessed, though.
Lofton:
22 years old in A-/A: .292/.372/.344, 40 SB in 51 tries (78%), 7 XBH in 192 AB.
23 years old in A+: .331/.407/.395, 62 SB in 78 tries (79%), 22 XBH in 481 AB.
24 years old in AAA: .308/.367/.417, 40 SB in 63 tries (63%), 38 XBH in 545 AB (big spike in 3B).
Smith:
20 years old in A: .262/.367/.340, 64 SB in 80 tries (80%), 23 XBH in 424 AB.
21 years old in A/A+: .310/.403/.432, 88 SB in 114 tries (77%), 41 XBH in 477 AB (big spike in 2B)
22 years old in AA: .340/.418/.413, 23 SB in 29 tries (79%), 9 XBH in 206 AB.
Pretty similar stuff, despite Smith being about 2 years younger, since he was drafted young out of JUCO and Lofton came out after 3 years at Arizona. Mallex has shown slightly better on-base skills with slightly better power as well, at least until Lofton broke out a little in that department in AAA.
Lofton wasn't considered much of a prospect until after his 23-year-old season in A+ and flew up prospects boards to become a top-30 guy after his AAA season. He was a little bigger than Mallex, so he probably ended up with more power than Mallex will ever have, but I think the comparison is a pretty good one, at least as prospects. Lofton ended up being better than probably anyone would have guessed, though.
Where the heck are Mallex/Peraza/Albies going to all play?
cajunrevenge
Well-known member
Every 80 runner center fielder with gap power is compared to Lofton.
I like Mallex. All that really matters with him is OBP. He needs about a .330 OBP to be a starting player. If he can get up to .350 he will be a good player. If he can get up to around .400 he will be an all star. Worst case he is a 4th outfielder and ace pinch runner.
I like Mallex. All that really matters with him is OBP. He needs about a .330 OBP to be a starting player. If he can get up to .350 he will be a good player. If he can get up to around .400 he will be an all star. Worst case he is a 4th outfielder and ace pinch runner.
Haha that was my thought. I guess he's putting Peraza at 3B, but I don't like that. His value to us as a third baseman is nowhere close to what his value would be in a trade as a SS.
Well, that's why I actually compared their production. Based on that, it doesn't seem lazy, it seems pretty legit, with the caveat that Mallex seems to have better on-base skills but is smaller so likely less projection in his power.
Scouting reports are tools are always the most important thing when looking at prospects but at a certain point when a guy is killing every single level, while being young for that level, you have to take notice. Smith should play a prominent role in the Braves future.
cajunrevenge
Well-known member
And their value as prospects isn't as high as their value as established players. Mallex can play CF. Albies could be an elite defender at 3B and Peraza can be the Prado role. Odds are under performance and injuries will make the room for us.
I agree with all of this. Not really a fan of Peraza unless becomes a star defensive shortstop. I'd much rather have Peterson in second and Mallex in Center. At least those 2 can draw a walk. And Peterson can at least hit 30 doubles
Huh? Sure, a guy playing in the majors is more valuable than him playing in AAA. But if we use a prospect's peak value in a trade, they can net us more in return than their value as a guy playing out of position in the majors.
By the time Albies is up, we'll know what Peterson is, and we'll be able to make a determination on which of the Simmons/Peterson/Albies trio is easiest to trade. But playing Albies or Peraza at 3B isn't the answer; it may be a temporary solution, but ultimately, both are more valuable in a potential trade than they are playing out of position at 3B or in some kind of utility role. Playing Peraza in a utility role would be an unbelievable waste of his value.
zitothebrave
Connoisseur of Minors
I assume in that scenario Simmons is traded off.
zitothebrave
Connoisseur of Minors
I'm not down on Mallex, I'm preaching caution. He does a lot of things right so there's a lot to be excited about. But he wasn't high up on many prospect lists for a reason. Half a season of stats isn't enough to disuade my concerns. Though I'll fully admit, his performance this year has turned me from a "please don't let us rely on him for CF" to hoping he's our starting CF next year just to see what he has.
Everyone should be cautious of putting expectations on him. He's far from a sure thing.
Tapate50
Well-known member
You mean 1.5 years worth of stats?