Tapate50
Well-known member
Hursh I see this with...but if Jenkins doesn't contribute as a starter, I think the brass will be disappointed.
TOP 30 PROSPECTS: OPENING DAY EDITION
- Thread starter rico43
- Start date
Hursh I see this with...but if Jenkins doesn't contribute as a starter, I think the brass will be disappointed.
Based off of the stuff I saw in ST I find it hard to believe that any pitcher in our whole organization (including major leagues) has better stuff than Jenkins aside from Folty. Now of course that doesn't mean that he is better than those guys but when we are talking about prospects I think of future ceilings. To me Jenkins has about as high of a ceiling as anyone in the organization aside from Folty. Now his percentage chance might be low to get there but I always think of best case scenario when ranking prospects. Thats why Albies has the #1 spot for me without any shadow of a doubt and Peterson now is in my top 5.
My current top 10 list would be as follows:
1. Albies
2. Folty
3. Peraza
4. Wisler
5. Banuelos
6. Peterson
7. Fried
8. Davidson
9. Ruiz
10. Jenkins
But in terms of potential, I'd rank them like this:
1. Albies
2. Folty
3. Davidson
4. Fried
5. Ruiz
6. Peraza
7. Peterson
8. Jenkins
9. Wisler
10. Banuelos
1. Albies
2. Folty
3. Peraza
4. Wisler
5. Banuelos
6. Peterson
7. Fried
8. Davidson
9. Ruiz
10. Jenkins
But in terms of potential, I'd rank them like this:
1. Albies
2. Folty
3. Davidson
4. Fried
5. Ruiz
6. Peraza
7. Peterson
8. Jenkins
9. Wisler
10. Banuelos
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
11. Dustin Peterson
12. Mauricio Cabrera
13. Manny Banuelos
14. Steve Janas
15. Williams Perez
Dustin Peterson has substantially improved his prospect stock so far this year, showing power and significant improvements in his walk and strikeout rates. Has the arm to eventually play right. I'm not quite ready to say he projects as a major league regular, but would do so if he is able to sustain his performance for the rest of the year.
It is easy to forget Cabrera is still only 21 and has the kind of stuff that gives him a chance of being a high leverage reliever. Odds of his becoming a closer for a major league team are a little less than 50% at this point.
Banuelos is likely to end up being the main lefty in our pen (or someone else's if we trade him). Still has a shot to be a major league starter.
No player in the Braves system has boosted his stock as much as Janas so far this year. Let's keep our fingers crossed his injury isn't anything serious. I think he'll end up being in the pen in the majors but like Banuelos still has a chance to make it as a starter.
Williams Perez is underrated because of the pudgy body. But his stuff has ticked up in the last couple years and he'll always get the grounders. Had a slightly better strikeout rate than Banuelos in Gwinnett. Has a classic long man/spot starter profile. But I think he too has some upside.
12. Mauricio Cabrera
13. Manny Banuelos
14. Steve Janas
15. Williams Perez
Dustin Peterson has substantially improved his prospect stock so far this year, showing power and significant improvements in his walk and strikeout rates. Has the arm to eventually play right. I'm not quite ready to say he projects as a major league regular, but would do so if he is able to sustain his performance for the rest of the year.
It is easy to forget Cabrera is still only 21 and has the kind of stuff that gives him a chance of being a high leverage reliever. Odds of his becoming a closer for a major league team are a little less than 50% at this point.
Banuelos is likely to end up being the main lefty in our pen (or someone else's if we trade him). Still has a shot to be a major league starter.
No player in the Braves system has boosted his stock as much as Janas so far this year. Let's keep our fingers crossed his injury isn't anything serious. I think he'll end up being in the pen in the majors but like Banuelos still has a chance to make it as a starter.
Williams Perez is underrated because of the pudgy body. But his stuff has ticked up in the last couple years and he'll always get the grounders. Had a slightly better strikeout rate than Banuelos in Gwinnett. Has a classic long man/spot starter profile. But I think he too has some upside.
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
I don't know about the Padres internal rankings, but BA had him as their #1. They also had him at #34 on their pre-season Top 100 list.
chop2chip
Well-known member
Not many people thought potential ace, but he was supposed to have a relatively high floor.
Tapate50
Well-known member
This is what I understand as well.
Eager to see him at some point this year... Hopefully around July\August.
60% chance of seeing Wisler if he's still with the G-Braves in late June/early July. Will, of course, be glad to offer a 1st hand impression!
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
6. Mallex Smith
7. Ricardo Sanchez
8. Rio Ruiz
9. Braxton Davidson
10. Daniel Castro
Mallex Smith has hit well in Mississippi. The fact that this is a much tougher hitting environment than where he played last year makes it doubly impressive. The only minus so far this year is a drop in the walk rate. Hopefully it is a small sample thing.
Ricardo Sanchez has not pitched much this season due to a leg injury and his ERA looks bad. But the strikeout rate is good and when you consider his youth and the scouting reports of his stuff, it isn't too hard to justify ranking him highly.
Rio Ruiz has struggled in Mississippi, but we're just at mid-May and you have to give considerable weight to his previous body of work. Age is also on his side.
Braxton Davidson. Patience and power. Also very young. Probably does not have the arm to stay in right and may not have the athleticism to stay in the outfield. Could end up as a left-handed version of Billy Butler, which means his value will be maximized in the other league.
Daniel Castro. All he does is hit. Mostly singles to be sure. But I like his low strikeout rate. And the fact he plays short. I think he will be a major league starting shortstop someday, but probably not for the Braves.
7. Ricardo Sanchez
8. Rio Ruiz
9. Braxton Davidson
10. Daniel Castro
Mallex Smith has hit well in Mississippi. The fact that this is a much tougher hitting environment than where he played last year makes it doubly impressive. The only minus so far this year is a drop in the walk rate. Hopefully it is a small sample thing.
Ricardo Sanchez has not pitched much this season due to a leg injury and his ERA looks bad. But the strikeout rate is good and when you consider his youth and the scouting reports of his stuff, it isn't too hard to justify ranking him highly.
Rio Ruiz has struggled in Mississippi, but we're just at mid-May and you have to give considerable weight to his previous body of work. Age is also on his side.
Braxton Davidson. Patience and power. Also very young. Probably does not have the arm to stay in right and may not have the athleticism to stay in the outfield. Could end up as a left-handed version of Billy Butler, which means his value will be maximized in the other league.
Daniel Castro. All he does is hit. Mostly singles to be sure. But I like his low strikeout rate. And the fact he plays short. I think he will be a major league starting shortstop someday, but probably not for the Braves.
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
1. Matt Wisler
2. Mike Foltynevich
3. Ozhaino Albies
4. Jose Peraza
5. Lucas Sims
Wisler has a deep four-pitch repetoire, featuring two above-average pitches (fastball and slider). Occasionally there is a pitcher with one really outstanding pitch who can dominate with that pitch. But most great pitchers have a deep selection of pitches. Among other things it allows them to adapt over the course of their careers and have success even as they lose something on their fastball.
Foltynevich has a chance to be a true power pitcher in the majors. He has what is called easy gas, and looks like the kind of horse who will give a team a lot of innings. Initially I thought he might be a bullpen guy but I think that would be a waste of his ability to pitch deep into games. A guy like that helps the bullpen a lot.
I rate Albies slightly higher than Peraza because he seems to have a better shot of sticking at short (which means his value might be maximized by trading him or Simmons, but that decision can be deferred a few years). Also there are hints that he will ultimately have a bit more extra base power and more walks that Peraza.
I would rate both Albies and Peraza above Wisler and Folty if I thought they were likely to develop power (by which I mean hit 40 or more extra base hits in a major league season). It could happen (in which case they would be All-Star caliber players), but the odds are against that at the moment.
As for Sims, like Rio Ruiz I am giving significant weight to past season performances. I think Sims will get past his current struggles and go on to have a successful career as a major league starter. He might also evolve into a high leverage reliever. It is a sad fact that one of Teheran, Wood, Miller, Folty and Wisler is likely to have some sort of significant injury over the next two or three years, so Sims should not really be regarded as a luxury or extra who could be peddled for needs elsewhere.
2. Mike Foltynevich
3. Ozhaino Albies
4. Jose Peraza
5. Lucas Sims
Wisler has a deep four-pitch repetoire, featuring two above-average pitches (fastball and slider). Occasionally there is a pitcher with one really outstanding pitch who can dominate with that pitch. But most great pitchers have a deep selection of pitches. Among other things it allows them to adapt over the course of their careers and have success even as they lose something on their fastball.
Foltynevich has a chance to be a true power pitcher in the majors. He has what is called easy gas, and looks like the kind of horse who will give a team a lot of innings. Initially I thought he might be a bullpen guy but I think that would be a waste of his ability to pitch deep into games. A guy like that helps the bullpen a lot.
I rate Albies slightly higher than Peraza because he seems to have a better shot of sticking at short (which means his value might be maximized by trading him or Simmons, but that decision can be deferred a few years). Also there are hints that he will ultimately have a bit more extra base power and more walks that Peraza.
I would rate both Albies and Peraza above Wisler and Folty if I thought they were likely to develop power (by which I mean hit 40 or more extra base hits in a major league season). It could happen (in which case they would be All-Star caliber players), but the odds are against that at the moment.
As for Sims, like Rio Ruiz I am giving significant weight to past season performances. I think Sims will get past his current struggles and go on to have a successful career as a major league starter. He might also evolve into a high leverage reliever. It is a sad fact that one of Teheran, Wood, Miller, Folty and Wisler is likely to have some sort of significant injury over the next two or three years, so Sims should not really be regarded as a luxury or extra who could be peddled for needs elsewhere.
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
I'll finish off with some observations on the overall state of the farm system. My first and most important point is that we do not have a surplus of pitching. There is a tendency to underestimate what is normal attrition for pitchers and pitching prospects. In planning for the future, the front office has to proceed from the assumption that attrition will be normal. If our luck in that regard turns out to be better or worse than normal, it can then adjust to those developments. But the basic plan has to be based upon normal attrition or the most likely outcome. And under normal attrition (where one bona fide starting pitching prospect gets eliminated per level each year) we do not have a surplus of starting pitching prospects. As an aside, I will note that our luck in recent years has been worse than normal. If just two of Hanson, Jurrjens, Medlen, Beachy and Minor had gone through their arb years without injury, there would have been no consideration of punting on 2015 and 2016. And I won't even mention the relievers: Venters, Simmons, Viz.
Moving on from pitching, there is one area we have a significant surplus. Middle infield. We have Simmons and Peterson in the majors (and a bench guy in Gosselin who I think is generally undervalued around here). Then Peraza, Albies, Castro, Reyes, Obregon, Camargo and some others who didn't make my top thirty: Ray-Patrick Didder, Luke Dysktra and Alejandro Salazar. I might add that normal attrition for middle infield prospects is a lot lower than for pitchers. So if there is one area where we have some trade chips it is middle infielders. We also have the option of moving some of these guys to other positions, notably third and center.
The weakest position in our system is catcher. I know you can't draft based on need, but it would be nice to pick up a bona fide catching prospect in this year's draft.
We also have an obvious need for power and more specifically right-handed power in our system. The path to the majors for that type of player would appear to be at third or a corner outfield spot. Maybe Dustin Peterson turns out to be that type of player, but I'm not sold yet.
There will be some financial flexbility at the major league level to use payroll to fill in the areas where the farm is not producing what the team needs. The obvious areas where we could spend some dinero over the next two years are catcher, left, and third. We are also likely to make a couple moves to pick up veteran relievers like we did with Grilli and Joe Johnson this past off-season.
Moving on from pitching, there is one area we have a significant surplus. Middle infield. We have Simmons and Peterson in the majors (and a bench guy in Gosselin who I think is generally undervalued around here). Then Peraza, Albies, Castro, Reyes, Obregon, Camargo and some others who didn't make my top thirty: Ray-Patrick Didder, Luke Dysktra and Alejandro Salazar. I might add that normal attrition for middle infield prospects is a lot lower than for pitchers. So if there is one area where we have some trade chips it is middle infielders. We also have the option of moving some of these guys to other positions, notably third and center.
The weakest position in our system is catcher. I know you can't draft based on need, but it would be nice to pick up a bona fide catching prospect in this year's draft.
We also have an obvious need for power and more specifically right-handed power in our system. The path to the majors for that type of player would appear to be at third or a corner outfield spot. Maybe Dustin Peterson turns out to be that type of player, but I'm not sold yet.
There will be some financial flexbility at the major league level to use payroll to fill in the areas where the farm is not producing what the team needs. The obvious areas where we could spend some dinero over the next two years are catcher, left, and third. We are also likely to make a couple moves to pick up veteran relievers like we did with Grilli and Joe Johnson this past off-season.
I've read that Davidson looks decent in the OF. And he is already a big kid, so he could actually slim down some and actually gain some additional athleticism. I think he's a good bet to at least stick in LF.
I also don't think we should trade Simmons or Albies if he comes along just because the best value for both is at SS. There's nothing wrong with a great-hitting, good-fielding SS at 2B. I would, though, trade Peraza if that happens.
I agree on C. I am in favor of taking Tyler Stephenson from KMHS if he's there at 15.
I also don't think we should trade Simmons or Albies if he comes along just because the best value for both is at SS. There's nothing wrong with a great-hitting, good-fielding SS at 2B. I would, though, trade Peraza if that happens.
I agree on C. I am in favor of taking Tyler Stephenson from KMHS if he's there at 15.
50PoundHead
Hessmania Forever
Thing that is scaring me about Davidson a bit is the very high K rate. The walk rate is very good, but one of my rules of thumb watching guys coming up in the minors is that a high K rate usually more than negates a high walk rate. Davidson is likely feeling his way along and he was in high school last year at this time, so I'm not inordinately worried. He could be fun to watch develop, especially as he starts driving the ball more consistently.
It doesn't concern me, at least not yet. Given his incredibly high walk rate, it's probable that the K rate is due more to unnecessarily high patience, not just swinging and missing. Stanton had a similar K rate at 18 in A ball and a considerably lower, though still good, walk rate. His walk rate improved while his K rate came down as he progressed through the minors, then his K rate has sat around 27-28% for his major league career, which is similar to the K rate of both him and Davidson in A ball.
Obviously Stanton hit much better overall in A than Davidson has so far, but I'm not concerned. He probably needs to be more aggressive, but I'd rather see a guy who is walking a ton and K'ing a lot than a guy who isn't striking out much but also isn't walking. We just need to see his average come up.
50PoundHead
Hessmania Forever
Good points. I would have to watch the games to know if he's taking himself into bad counts.
Braves1976
It's OVER 5,000!
I haven't watched Rome as much as I have some of our other minor league teams, but in most of the games I've seen him he does seem to have his share of full count called third strikes. He probably needs to be more aggressive as smootness said, at least that has been my take thus far. However, I do like his patience and that he is willing to take a walk.
Russ2dollas
10 yr, $185 million Extension
i want to like Albies....but I'm having a hard time getting excited about someone that small. He has to be the exception to the rule.
Julio3000
<B>A Chip Off the Old Rock</B>
I get that sometimes, too.
Deester11
Well-known member
Unless someone can tell me they have, I've seen him more than a lot of people. He is too patient at times, can look bad swinging and correct on the next pitch like the one he looked bad on and really hit the ball hard anywhere. It's going to take a little, but he'll hold his own. I'm still high on him.